In a provocative challenge to traditional economic anxieties, top economist Justin Wolfers is reframing the widening U.S. trade gap not as a fiscal failure, but as an enormous physical “surplus” that signals a historic boom in American material wealth.The ‘Stuff’ SurplusWhile the U.S. Census Bureau announced a sharp rise in the goods and services deficit to $70.3 billion for December 2025, Wolfers argues that the public is looking at the ledger backward.“The U.S. has an enormous trade surplus with the rest ...

Data released Thursday by the Census Bureau showed the overall trade deficit with the world narrowed, the result of an expanding trade surplus in services. ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says US will have its first trade surplus in decades because tariffs cut deficit by 78%. ...

Core Insights - China's private sector has significantly increased its foreign asset holdings, with over $1 trillion added in the first three quarters of last year, more than double the annual average growth of the past decade [2][4][15] - The surge in private investments abroad, totaling $535 billion in overseas securities purchases, marks the largest increase in two decades, surpassing direct investments for factory and staffing expansions [4][15] - The shift in capital management from state control to private sector investment is reshaping global financial dynamics, with potential risks for both domestic and international markets [6][29] Group 1: Investment Trends - By the end of September, Chinese private investors owned $7.8 trillion in foreign assets, outpacing the buildup of official reserves by nearly five times [15] - The total foreign assets held by China's non-official sector now exceed Japan's entire foreign asset holdings, indicating a substantial pool of funding available for global investments [15][22] - Approximately 30% of China's trade is now settled in yuan, which does not contribute to foreign asset calculations, highlighting a shift in currency usage [21] Group 2: Market Implications - A rapid appreciation of the yuan could trigger a chain reaction of capital repatriation, leading to increased foreign exchange settlements by exporters [7][29] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has been linked to interventions in the currency market, utilizing state banks to manage foreign exchange liquidity [20][21] - The ongoing rise in China's trade surplus is expected to sustain high levels of non-official foreign assets, further influencing global capital flows [28]

Core Insights - There has been progress on the U.S. trade deficit [1] Group 1 - The U.S. trade deficit has shown improvement recently [1]

The city is the world’s Christmas capital. Masses of stalls are dedicated to Christmas paraphernalia: trees, ornaments, hats, wreaths and candy canes. These wares have contributed to China’s recent $1trn trade surplus https://t.co/MPkYxOfdPC ...

The city is the world’s Christmas capital. Masses of stalls are dedicated to Christmas paraphernalia: trees, ornaments, hats, wreaths and candy canes. These wares have contributed to China’s $1trn trade surplus https://t.co/8QyIXan37hPhoto: Getty Images https://t.co/RWWi285Utu ...

The city is the world’s Christmas capital. Masses of stalls are dedicated to Christmas paraphernalia: trees, ornaments, hats, wreaths and candy canes. These wares have contributed to China’s recent $1trn trade surplus https://t.co/OvaFlPhthJ ...

China’s surplus cannot be chalked up only to the tenacity of its exporters. It also reflects the weakness of its own spending https://t.co/fD70s2vQDK ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **Chinese economy** and its trade dynamics, particularly focusing on the **goods trade surplus** and inflation trends. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Historic Trade Surplus**: China's year-to-date goods trade surplus has surpassed **$1 trillion** for the first time in history, indicating a significant rebound in export growth from **-1.1% year-over-year (yoy)** in October to **+5.9% yoy** in November. Import growth was more modest, increasing from **+1.0% yoy** in October to **+1.9% yoy** in November. This trend suggests a robust recovery in trade activities [6][2][6]. 2. **Economic Assessment**: The Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) highlighted a scenario of **strong supply but weak demand** in the current economic landscape. Policymakers emphasized the importance of promoting a reasonable increase in prices as part of the monetary policy for the upcoming year. Key tasks include increasing income for urban and rural residents, stabilizing investment, and supporting the property market [6][6]. 3. **Inflation Trends**: Underlying inflation remains subdued, with the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rising from **0.2% yoy** in October to **0.7% yoy** in November, primarily driven by a **16% month-over-month (mom)** increase in fresh vegetable prices. Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at **1.2% yoy**. If gold prices are excluded, the core CPI would be estimated at **0.8% yoy** [4][7][10]. 4. **Policy Outlook**: The CEWC did not advocate for significant increases in fiscal spending and continued to stress the importance of local government debt controls. The overall stance is considered **modestly pro-growth**, with the implementation of policies being a key risk factor [6][6]. 5. **Future Trade Dynamics**: With structural growth in high-tech manufacturing exports and government initiatives aimed at self-sufficiency, China's trade surplus is expected to continue rising in the coming years [6][6]. Additional Important Information - The report emphasizes that investors should consider this analysis as one of many factors in their investment decisions, highlighting the importance of comprehensive evaluation [5][5]. - The data presented is sourced from **China Customs**, **Haver Analytics**, and **Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research**, ensuring reliability in the information provided [4][6]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, focusing on the economic indicators and policy implications relevant to the Chinese economy.