Throughout the recent market cycle, there has been some peculiar behavior in the relationship between stocks and bonds. Historically, stocks and bonds often move in opposite directions. As one of these asset classes is in favor, the other usually lags. Over the past three years, that hasn't been the case. Since the beginning of 2023, the S&P 500 has pretty consistently moved higher. But long-term Treasury yields have remained largely flat over the period. Where to invest $1,000 right now? Our analyst team ...

Core Insights - Bitcoin has experienced a decline, while Treasury yields and the dollar have shown a gentle rise [1] Group 1: Bitcoin Market - Bitcoin prices have fallen, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies [1] - The decline in Bitcoin may reflect broader market trends and investor behavior in response to economic indicators [1] Group 2: Treasury Yields - Treasury yields have risen gently, suggesting an increase in borrowing costs and potential implications for fixed-income investments [1] - The rise in yields may influence investor decisions, particularly in relation to risk assets like cryptocurrencies [1] Group 3: Dollar Performance - The dollar has strengthened, which could impact international trade and investment flows [1] - A stronger dollar may lead to increased costs for foreign investors in U.S. assets, affecting market dynamics [1]

Core Viewpoint - MFA Financial is optimistic about its future earnings and return on equity, driven by a supportive interest rate environment and strategic initiatives to enhance profitability [4][7]. Policy and Market Environment - A focus on housing affordability in Washington is expected to support mortgage markets, with an initiative for GSEs to purchase $200 billion of agency MBS and anticipated rate cuts in 2026 [1]. - Treasury yields have declined significantly, with the 2-year yield down 77 basis points and the 10-year yield down 39 basis points for the year, leading to a steeper yield curve [2]. Financial Performance - The Bloomberg US Aggregate Index rose 7.3% in 2025 after three consecutive annual declines, indicating a recovery in fixed income markets [3]. - MFA's GAAP book value was $13.20 and economic book value was $13.75 at year-end, with Q4 GAAP EPS at $0.42 and distributable earnings at $0.27 per share [5][8]. Earnings and Strategic Actions - MFA executed several strategic actions to boost earnings, including deploying over $100 million of excess cash, resolving over $150 million of delinquent loans, and reducing G&A expenses to $119.4 million for 2025 [6][13]. - The company acquired nearly $2 billion of residential mortgage assets in Q4, with a focus on agency and non-QM loans [14][19]. Portfolio and Securitization - The agency portfolio grew over 50% during the quarter to $3.3 billion, primarily through purchases made before spreads tightened [14]. - MFA issued its 21st non-QM securitization in December, selling $424 million of bonds at an average cost of 5.26%, and plans to call and reissue certain securitizations to unlock capital [16]. Growth Initiatives - Lima One is identified as a key growth driver, with plans to expand its sales team and relaunch multifamily lending in 2026 [17]. - The company sold $45 million of longer-duration rental loans to third-party investors, generating $1.4 million in gain-on-sale income [18]. Future Outlook - Management expects distributable earnings to align with the common dividend in the latter half of 2026, with an estimated 3% increase in economic book value since year-end [21].

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly investing in Treasuries, leading to a decrease in yields to their lowest levels of the year despite existing tariffs, deficits, and inflation risks [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The demand for Treasuries has surged, indicating a strong preference for safer assets among investors [1] - Current yields on Treasuries have reached their lowest point in 2023, reflecting a shift in investor sentiment towards risk aversion [1] Group 2: Economic Context - The backdrop of tariffs and ongoing inflation concerns has not deterred investors from seeking the safety of government bonds [1] - The persistent budget deficits are contributing to the overall economic landscape, influencing investor behavior towards Treasuries [1]

Treasury yields fell as U.S. inflation surprised on the downside. ...

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>> IT’S 5:00 AM IN NEW YORK CITY, GOOD MORNING, I'M LIZZY BURDEN IN FOR VONNIE QUINN. LET'S GET YOU SET UP FOR THE DAY. THE DOLLAR SLIPS AND YIELDS ARRIVED -- RISE ACROSS THE CURVE.THE YEN IS ALSO ON THE MOVE STRENGTHENING AGAINST THE DOLLAR FOLLOWING THE PRIME MINISTER'S LANDSLIDE VICTORY. ALL OF THAT IN A BUSY WEEK FOR DATA WITH THE LATEST JOBS REPORT AND FRENCH INFLATION PRINT. WE SAW THE GAINS ON WALL STREET ON FRIDAY CARRYING INTO THE NEW WEEK.SEEING A FAIRLY RISK ON MOVE IN THE ASIAN AND EUROPEAN SESS ...

Market Valuation and Inflation - US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, suggesting cautious expectations for investment returns [1] - The P/E10 ratio is a key indicator of market valuation, with a historical average of 17.7 [1] - Current P/E10 stands at 39.8, with a year-over-year inflation rate of 1.99%, placing it within the "sweet spot" of 1.4% to 3.0% inflation [1][1] Market Valuation and Treasury Yields - The latest monthly average of the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.21% [1] - The correlation between P/E10 and the 10-year Treasury yield indicates that current valuations are in extreme territory, similar to the tech bubble [1] - The post-financial crisis period saw unprecedented low yields and high P/E10 ratios, deviating from historical patterns [1]

Group 1: Treasury Yields and Economic Indicators - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.26% as of January 30, 2026, while the 2-year note was at 3.52% and the 30-year note at 4.87% [1] - An inverted yield curve occurs when longer-term Treasury yields are lower than shorter-term yields, with the 10-2 spread being a reliable leading indicator for recessions, typically turning negative before recessions [2] - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average lead time of 18.5 weeks [4][6] Group 2: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate (FFR) influences borrowing costs for banks, which in turn affects mortgage rates; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining even as the Fed began a rate-cutting cycle in September 2024 [7] - The latest Freddie Mac Weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.10%, marking one of the lowest levels since October 2024 [7] Group 3: Treasury ETFs - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Treasury yields pushed higher in Asian trading after US President Donald Trump said he would announce his nominee to chair the Federal Reserve on Friday morning https://t.co/xxUzVfUOuu ...