The yield on the 10-year note ended October 3, 2025 at 4.13%. Meanwhile the 2-year note ended at 3.58% and the 30-year note ended at 4.71%. If we consider the first negative spread date as the starting point, the average lead time to a recession is 48 weeks, or about eleven months. If we instead use the last positive spread date before a recession, the average lead time is 18.5 weeks, or about 4.25 months. For another perspective on the yield curve, the 10-3mo spread below uses an even shorter-term maturity ...

Our monthly market valuation updates have long had the same conclusion: US stock indexes are significantly overvalued, which suggests cautious expectations for investment returns. This analysis focuses on the P/E10 ratio, a key indicator of market valuation, and its correlation with inflation and the 10-year Treasury yield. Market Valuation (P/E10) and Inflation The "sweet spot†of 1.4% to 3.0% inflation has historically supported higher market valuations. Currently, the P/E10 stands at 38.6, with a year-ove ...

Bonds offer a hedge as stocks get expensive; the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund is up 5.61% year to date, on a total return basis. ...

Market Performance & Trends - Pharmaceutical sector experienced a surge, rising approximately 5% for the second consecutive day, influenced by reports of potential delays in pharma tariffs to facilitate drug price negotiations [2][13] - GoodRx saw a spike of 10-20%, seemingly driven by a CEO interview on another network [3] - Lithium Americas shares rallied around 23% following the U S Secretary of Energy's announcement on Bloomberg Television that the U S government agreed to acquire a 5% stake in the company [9][11] - Nike's shares increased by approximately 6 25% after reporting first-quarter revenue that surpassed average analyst estimates [12] - Space Mobile's shares surged 16% following the announcement of successful satellite deployment, with Barclays raising its price target to $60 from $37 [15][16] Economic Indicators & Analysis - Bond market activity indicated yields were down across the curve, reacting to ADP data, suggesting potential market concerns if ADP is the only payroll data available [3][4] - Market conviction for further rate cuts this year is near certainty, pricing in at least one cut by the end of October and another by December 10th [22][23] Company Specific News & Developments - Corteva's shares declined by 9 1% after announcing plans to separate into two independent companies, with investors expressing concerns about increased volatility in the pesticide business [16][17][18] - Cal-Maine Foods' shares decreased by 1 2% after reporting first-quarter profit and sales that fell short of expectations, reflecting changing consumer preferences for fancier egg varieties [18] - Peloton's shares dropped by 3 7% after the company increased hardware prices by an average of 11% and subscription fees by 19%, raising concerns about potential customer churn [20][21] - Amazon is consolidating Amazon Fresh and Happy Belly into one collection, aiming to streamline its food and grocery offerings [30]

CONCLUDED Stock Market News From Sept. 30, 2025: Dow Hits New Record Last Updated: Updated 3 hours ago Dow Notches Record. S&P 500 Rallies to End Best September Since 2010. By Customer Center Network Connor Smith The stock market rallied late on Tuesday to wrap up its best September in more than a decade. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 82 points, or 0.2%, to mark a record closing high. The S&P 500 was up 0.4%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.3%. The S&P and Nasdaq each had their best September performa ...

The chart below overlays the daily performance of several Treasury bonds, starting from the pre-recession equity market peaks, along with the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. This next table shows the highs and lows of yields and the Federal Funds Rate (FFR) since 2007. A Long-Term Look at the 10-Year Treasury Yield Here is a long-term view of the 10-year yield starting in 1965, well before the 1973 oil embargo that triggered the era of 'stagflation' (economic stagnation coupled with inflation) Inverted ...

The Marriner S. Eccles Federal Reserve building in Washington, DC. Photographer: Al Drago/Bloomberg Treasuries extended losses as data showing the labor market was holding up pushed yields to three-week highs and led traders to modestly lower expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts in the coming months. Short-maturity rates, which track expectations for Fed policy most closely, led the move after weekly jobless claims came in below estimates while separate figures showed stronger-than-forecas ...

Group 1: Treasury Yields Overview - The yield on the 10-year Treasury note ended at 4.14% on September 19, 2025, while the 2-year note was at 3.57% and the 30-year note at 4.75% [1] - A long-term view of the 10-year yield shows significant historical context, starting from 1965, highlighting the impact of events like the 1973 oil embargo [2] - The inverted yield curve, where longer-term yields are lower than shorter-term ones, is a reliable leading indicator for recessions, with the 10-2 spread turning negative before recessions [2][3] Group 2: Recession Indicators - The average lead time to a recession based on the first negative spread date is approximately 48 weeks, while using the last positive spread date yields an average of 18.5 weeks [4][6] - The 10-3 month spread also indicates a lead time to recessions ranging from 34 to 69 weeks, with similar patterns observed as in the 10-2 spread [5] - The most recent negative spread for the 10-2 occurred from July 5, 2022, to August 26, 2024, while the 10-3 month spread was negative from October 25, 2022, to December 12, 2024 [3][5] Group 3: Mortgage Rates and Federal Funds Rate - The Federal Funds Rate influences borrowing costs for banks, which typically leads to higher mortgage rates when the FFR increases; however, recent trends show mortgage rates declining despite steady FFR [7] - The latest Freddie Mac survey reported the 30-year fixed mortgage rate at 6.35%, the lowest since October 2024 [7] Group 4: Market Behavior and Federal Reserve Influence - Federal Reserve policy has significantly influenced market behavior, particularly in relation to Treasury yields and the S&P 500 [8] - ETFs associated with Treasuries include Vanguard 0-3 Month Treasury Bill ETF (VBIL), Vanguard Intermediate-Term Treasury ETF (VGIT), and Vanguard Long-Term Treasury ETF (VGLT) [9]

Group 1 - Investors in the bond market are adjusting their positioning following the Federal Reserve's shift in monetary policy [1]

Group 1 - Treasury yields are increasing as investors adjust their growth and inflation expectations following a quarter-point interest-rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1][2] - The Federal Reserve has raised its GDP growth estimates for this year and next, with stronger growth anticipated in 2027, while also slightly lowering its unemployment forecast [2] - Fed officials indicated the possibility of two additional quarter-point rate cuts by the end of the year and another reduction in 2026, highlighting concerns over softer job growth despite inflation risks [2]