The Federal Reserve’s July meeting minutes show staff expect real GDP growth through 2027 to align with prior forecasts, while unemployment is projected to exceed the natural rate by end-2025 and remain elevated. Some participants noted that payment stablecoin usage may rise following the GENIUS Act, boosting demand for assets like U.S. Treasuries. https://t.co/nlgD9SBwbP ...

adding that given current immigration policy, a recession likely appears, quote, dead ahead. Joining us today is Moody's Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. Mark, it's great to have you back.Good morning. Good morning. Goldman writes a note today, says that some of these revisions are likely to start triggering some some real recession fears.Are you anywhere near that camp. >> Yeah, I think recession risks are really high. You know, I think the key here is jobs. I think that's the right place to focus.And ...

A new concern following a week of mixed inflation reports. Economists are warning President Trump's new immigration policies will contribute to the rising prices of goods due to a dwindling labor force. It comes as companies struggle to absorb the full weight of the president's tariffs.And joining me now is Courtney Brown, an economics reporter at Axios, focusing on the global economy. Welcome, my friend. So Courtney, you're right.Job market gloom hasn't been this bad since the Great Recession. And while th ...

So I see the labor market as stable around full employment. Uh we have an unemployment rate at 4.2% which is consistent with full employment and you know low by historical averages. We have a ratio of vacancies to persons unemployed which is above one meaning there is more than one vacancy slightly more than one vacancy for each person unemployed and looking for a job.We have uh the transition rates from employed to employed are consistent with a full employment labor market and the employment cost index is ...

Labor Market Trends - Young men are facing difficulties in securing jobs despite having college degrees [1] - Men under 30 with bachelor's degrees have an unemployment rate of 6%, almost double that of young women with the same education level [1] - The healthcare industry, which is predominantly female, accounts for essentially 100% of labor force growth [2] - Traditionally male blue-collar jobs in manufacturing, transportation, warehousing, and mining have experienced decline or stagnation [2] Education and Employment - A bachelor's degree may not hold the same value for men as it once did, with young men with bachelor's degrees slightly more likely to be unemployed than those with just a high school diploma [3] - There is increasing demand for credentials aligned with specific work requirements, rather than solely relying on a college degree [4] Social and Emotional Impact - 25% of men aged 15 to 34 reported feeling lonely, compared to 18% of women in the same age group [5] - Young men are experiencing emotional challenges related to career aspirations, financial independence, and a sense of success [5]

There's a troubling trend for young men in a labor market that's showing signs of slowing down. A new analysis of labor data by NBC News shows that the unemployment rate for men between 23 and 30 with a bachelor's degree has jumped nearly double that of women and is higher than the overall unemployment rate. Well, now young men with degrees are more likely to be unemployed than those with just a high school diploma.NBC News senior policy reporter Shannon Pettyp joins us now. Shannon, when I saw this data co ...

The July jobs report shows the economy added 73,000 jobs, with unemployment holding steady at 4.2%. While the stable unemployment rate might seem reassuring at first glance, the implications for job search success are more nuanced.https://t.co/OZCERRlKog https://t.co/suj0WuY4Bn ...

Summary of Key Points from the FOMC Meeting and Economic Outlook Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve and Economic Policy**: The July FOMC meeting indicated a hawkish stance regarding interest rates and inflation management, emphasizing the importance of the unemployment rate as a key indicator of economic health. Core Insights and Arguments - **Hawkish Tone of FOMC**: The July FOMC meeting raised the bar for potential rate cuts later in the year, with Chair Powell highlighting persistent inflation risks and the unemployment rate as a more accurate measure of maximum employment [6][8][37]. - **Tariff-Induced Inflation**: Powell acknowledged initial evidence of inflation due to tariffs, but noted uncertainty regarding the pace of tariff pass-through to consumer prices, indicating that the Fed remains data-dependent [6][18][22]. - **Labor Market Dynamics**: Powell stated that the Fed could still meet its maximum employment mandate despite slow payroll growth, as long as the unemployment rate remains low. This suggests a focus on the unemployment rate rather than payroll growth as a key metric [6][24][30][32]. - **Inflation Expectations**: The Fed's inflation target remains above 2%, with core PCE prices rising by 2.7% over the past year. The Fed expects inflation to remain firm in the coming months, with potential upward revisions to inflation forecasts [18][23][37]. - **Economic Growth Assessment**: The FOMC downgraded its growth assessment, indicating that economic activity moderated in the first half of the year, which could imply a dovish tilt in future policy decisions [10][12]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Dissenting Opinions**: The presence of dissenting opinions from Governors Bowman and Waller allowed Powell to adopt a more hawkish tone, focusing on the consensus view rather than reflecting a range of opinions [16][38]. - **Market Reactions and Predictions**: The market-implied probability of rate cuts has been influenced by upcoming employment and inflation data, with expectations that the Fed will remain on hold in 2025 unless significant economic changes occur [39][41][62]. - **Trade Recommendations**: Analysts suggest various trading strategies, including maintaining long positions in specific Treasury securities and monitoring the USD outlook, which is expected to decline unless labor market data surprises positively [66][62]. Conclusion - The FOMC's current stance reflects a cautious approach to monetary policy, with a focus on inflation management and labor market stability. The upcoming economic data will be crucial in determining the Fed's future actions regarding interest rates and overall economic strategy.

August 1, 2025 01:16 PM GMT U.S. Economics | North America Extel Global Fixed Income Poll is now open. We hope you have enjoyed our research over the past year and appreciate your support. Request your ballot. Exhibit 1: Private payroll growth has slowed 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Jul-22 Jan-23 Jul-23 Jan-24 Jul-24 Jan-25 Jul-25 Private payrolls, monthly change 000s Private payrolls ch Private payrolls ch, 3m avg Source: BLS, Morgan Stanley Research | M July employment report: A | Michael.Gapen@morganstanley ...

2 August 2025 | 2:03PM EDT US Daily: Q&A on the Revisions in the July Employment Report (Abecasis/Walker) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis +1(212)902-8357 | manuel.abecasis@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Elsie Peng +1(212)357 ...