Bloomberg has learned that allies of Keir Starmer have privately accused UK Health Secretary Wes Streeting of plotting to replace the Prime Minister. For more on this palace intrigue, I'm joined by Bloomberg's Lizzie Bird. And Lizzie, what do we know at this point.We have to thank our UK political editor Alex Wickham for this scoop. But it's not the first time the West Street King's name has been mentioned. He's younger than Starmer. At 42, he's seen as charismatic.He's from a council estate in East London. ...

Time. The major indices uh erasing most of their losses from last week, driven by some optimism that the government shutdown will end soon, as well as easing concerns about the AI trade. Let's bring in Ed Yardi, president of Yardi Research, still aiming for the S&P to end the year at or maybe close to 7K.Ed, it's good to see you. There was some discussion this morning that the 50-day was tested and held. Uh you know that when you're down three for the week and that's the worst in seven months, it was probab ...

RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)Ok, let’s get one thing straight…Delinquency rates on credit card loans (or otherwise) are not a leading indicator. The ISM is not a leading indicator. PMIs are not a leading indicator. Heavy truck sales are not a leading indicator. Job openings are not a leading indicator. Consumer confidence is not a leading indicator. Small business confidence is not a leading indicator. Durable goods orders are not a leading indicator. Capital goods orders are not a leading indicator ...

Core Insights - Job creation in the U.S. economy is significantly slowing, with the September jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown [1][7] - Private data sources indicate a minimal increase in employment, primarily in the education and healthcare sectors, with a reported gain of 60,000 jobs in September [2][5] - The overall job market appears weak, with private estimates suggesting essentially no job growth for the month [5][7] Job Market Analysis - The September jobs report from ADP indicated a loss of 32,000 jobs, with gains concentrated in large healthcare companies, while smaller firms are struggling due to tariffs and immigration policies [5][6] - Revelio Labs' data shows job growth concentrated in California, New York, and Massachusetts, but recent revisions suggest that the initial estimates may be overstated [2][5] - The Conference Board's consumer confidence survey indicates a decline in job availability perceptions, suggesting a potential rise in unemployment [6] Economic Implications - The absence of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) data complicates the assessment of economic health and policy-making [7] - Economists had anticipated a gain of 50,000 jobs in the BLS report, with an unemployment rate expected to remain at 4.3% [10] - Once the government shutdown concludes, the BLS will release the delayed September jobs report, although there may be a lag in publication [11]

Chicago Fed President Goulsby on squawkbox this morning defending the validity of BLS data and the shortcomings of relying just on private sector sources. Joining us here at Post9 this morning to talk more about it, Goldman Sachs chief economist John Hotsi is who normally joins us on jobs Friday. A little bit different today.It's a jobs Friday except they're not jobs. Yes. Do you do you feel like you're flying blind or no.He seems to think that um BLS is still the gold standard. Oh, for sure. It's a signifi ...

Following the government shutdown, the Federal Reserve will be flying more blind than usual without key data. This could lead to a mistake in setting interest rates, cutting too much if the job market strong, too little if it's weaker than thought. But there are clues to watch on the state of the economy.One of them is the ADP's private payroll report. It came in surprisingly weak. Last month, the private sector shed 32,000 jobs, marking the biggest decrease since 2023.JP Morgan Mike Feroli says the continu ...

Labor Market Analysis - Government payroll data remains vital for understanding the jobs market and the economy, despite ADP's volatility [1] - ADP data aligns well with the Bureau of Labor Statistics private sector data over a year, with a year-to-date difference of only 9,000 jobs per month in August [2] - Alternative data may not accurately reflect changes if jobs are at an inflection point [3] - Jobless claims provide data on firings, but not hiring [3] Key Indicators - Continuing claims plus the Conference Board's employment data on jobs hard to get serve as a good proxy for the unemployment rate [4] - Hiring intentions in the small business NFIB survey are considered the best single indicator of payrolls for the month ahead, showing signs of stability after weakening earlier in the summer [5] Government Sector Impact - Trump administration layoffs of federal workers are expected to impact job data this month and next, with no private sector data replacement [6] - ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs for September, partly due to revisions [6] - Revisions suggest a softer job market than previously believed [6]

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - Each week of a government shutdown shaves off approximately 025 percentage points from the annualized GDP growth rate during that quarter [4] - A three-week shutdown, the longest seen, could potentially be absorbed within the fourth quarter, resulting in a negligible overall impact [5][6] - A prolonged shutdown could lead to a 1 percentage point reduction in fourth-quarter GDP growth [4] Labor Market Data and Analysis - A government shutdown would suspend data releases from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and cease active data collection [1] - The absence of federal data increases the importance of alternative datasets like ADP data for labor market insights [2] - The Department of Labor could reduce its workforce from approximately 13000 to 3000 employees during a shutdown, with only one employee remaining at the Bureau of Labor Statistics [10] - Data collection during the reference week (containing the 12th of the month) could be significantly impacted, potentially leading to choppy labor surveys and data revisions [11][13] - Mass firings could increase the unemployment rate up to 45% [11] Federal Reserve Policy Implications - A government shutdown could hinder the Federal Reserve's ability to make informed decisions due to the lack of official statistics [7] - The Fed relies on data like the core PCE measure and the unemployment rate for communication and policy decisions, which would be unavailable during a shutdown [8]

Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - A government shutdown typically reduces GDP growth by approximately 0.25 percentage points per week, potentially leading to a full percentage point reduction in fourth quarter growth if the shutdown lasts four weeks [4] - A three-week shutdown, while significant, may not have a lasting impact on the overall economic performance of the fourth quarter, as there may be opportunities to recover losses once operations resume [5][6] Data Collection and Labor Market Insights - The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will suspend all operations and data collection during a government shutdown, which will limit the availability of key economic data [1][10] - In the absence of federal data, alternative datasets, such as ADP data, will become increasingly important for understanding labor market conditions [2][3] - A potential reduction in the number of employees at the Department of Labor during a shutdown could lead to significant disruptions in data collection, particularly affecting labor surveys for October [11][13] Federal Reserve and Economic Decision-Making - The Federal Reserve may face challenges in making informed decisions due to the lack of official statistics during a government shutdown, which complicates their communication and policy formulation [7][8] - The absence of preferred inflation measures and unemployment statistics could hinder the Fed's ability to assess the balance of labor supply and demand [8]

Economic Indicators & Trends - The national unemployment rate is at 43%, while the unemployment rate for young Americans ages 16 to 24 is 105% [1][9] - US import tariff rate is at 195% according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development [1] - The economy grew at almost 4% in the second quarter, according to the Commerce Department [1] - Small business confidence is increasing, potentially due to the resolution of tax policies [1][4] Inflation & Cost of Living - Ground coffee prices have increased by 33%, from $631 to $887 per pound [1] - Auto insurance costs are up 60%, shelter costs are up 50%, and electricity costs are up 38% over the past 5 years [10] Consumer Behavior & Savings - 46% of US adults have enough emergency savings to cover three months of expenses, while 24% have no emergency savings at all [20] - There's increased use of "buy now pay later" programs, which can be risky due to high interest rates after missed payments [14][15] Stock Market & Investment - The stock market is booming, hitting 28 highs this year, boosted by AI promises [1] - There's a lot of AI investment and energy in tech, with a few big tech stocks driving the S&P 500's performance [24] - A record amount of money is in money market funds, offering around 4% interest, indicating people are seeking safer investments [30][31] Trade & Tariffs - Tariffs have sharply raised prices for things like coffee, bananas, TVs, and toys [1] - The president's tariffs against China have caused China to not buy any US soybeans [38] Political & Economic Perceptions - People who blamed Biden for the high cost of living don't blame Trump for the same high cost of living [41] - There's a pervasive feeling that the current economic system is not working for many Americans [51]