Consumer Confidence - US consumer confidence experienced the largest decline in seven months in November [1] - The decline is attributed to increasing concerns regarding the labor market outlook and the overall economy [1]

Key dates this week 🗓️Nov 25 ➡️ 🇺🇸 CB Consumer ConfidenceNov 26 ➡️ 🇺🇸 Gross Domestic Product QoQNov 27 ➡️ 🇩🇪 GfK Consumer ConfidenceWhich dates are you watching? 👀 ...

South Korea’s consumer confidence climbed to an eight-year high in November, supported by a trade agreement with the US that eased uncertainty over export prospects and by stronger-than-expected growth over the summer https://t.co/BPt4HFWSHB ...

Market Overview - The markets are expected to experience continued volatility as investors assess the Federal Reserve's potential actions amidst mixed economic indicators [2][3] - Current economic conditions show a slight increase in unemployment, solid economic growth, and worsening inflation [2] Consumer Confidence and Spending - There is an observed uptick in demand for consumer discretionary items such as RVs and boats, indicating strong consumer confidence [6][7] - Improved consumer confidence is expected to be reflected in upcoming retail sales, although apparel sales remain uncertain [7] - Anticipated stimulus checks and tax refunds in the first quarter are likely to boost consumer spending next year compared to this year [8] Industry Insights - Patrick Industries, a supplier in the motion industry, is expected to benefit from the increased demand in sectors like RVs and power sports [6] - The easing of tariff pressures, albeit slowly, may contribute positively to the industry outlook [8]

Market Volatility & Fed Policy - Market anticipates continued volatility this week as investors assess the Federal Reserve's actions, influenced by conflicting economic indicators [2] - Uncertainty surrounding the Fed's decisions suggests markets will likely remain within a tight trading range [3] Economic Indicators & Consumer Spending - Economic indicators are showing mixed signals, with unemployment slightly worsening, solid economic growth, and rising inflation [2] - Consumer confidence has improved recently, and stimulus checks expected in the first quarter, along with rising tax refunds, may boost consumer spending next year [8] - Potential easing of tariff pressures could also contribute to improved consumer spending in the coming year [8] Industry Specific Insights (Motion Industry) - Patrick Industries, a supplier in the "motion industry" (RVs, boats, power toys), is experiencing an increase in demand across its sectors [5][6] - Demand is picking up in consumer discretionary spending areas like RVs and power sports [7] Geopolitical Factors - Potential developments in the Ukraine-Russia situation could introduce market movement [5]

A closely-watched index of consumer confidence in the UK has fallen on every measure ahead of the Labour’s government’s budget next week, at which it is expected to raise taxes https://t.co/s1T2yKwN6L ...

Consumer confidence dips ahead of budget, ONS sticks with Wales and must-see theatre shows in London -- get briefed ahead of your morning calls with The London Rush https://t.co/LcolqZtHMt ...

UK consumer confidence tumbled in November, the British Retail Consortium said, as government hints about higher income tax in this month’s budget caused people to worry about the economy and their personal finances https://t.co/CeZbU6CJbK ...

Core Insights - Home Depot has revised its full fiscal 2025 outlook, indicating significant pressure on profitability despite a strategic shift towards B2B and wholesale markets [1][10] - The company's modest top-line growth is largely attributed to the acquisition of GMS Inc., suggesting that organic sales growth is stagnating and falling short of expectations [1][7] Financial Performance - Comparable sales for the quarter increased by only 0.2% globally and 0.1% in the U.S., indicating a lack of meaningful growth from existing stores [6][10] - The acquisition of GMS contributed approximately $900 million in sales over eight weeks, but organic growth was only $200 million, highlighting potential issues in the core business [7][8] Market Dynamics - Consumer uncertainty and ongoing pressures in the housing market are negatively impacting home improvement demand, as noted by the CEO [3][4] - The high-end Pro customer segment remains more resilient but is still affected by rising costs and project timelines, while average DIY consumers are reducing spending on large projects [9][11] Profitability Outlook - The company anticipates a decline in diluted EPS of approximately 6.0% from fiscal 2024, signaling that topline challenges are overwhelming cost-control efforts [10][11] - Despite acquiring $2.0 billion in new revenue, Home Depot is bracing for a 5% to 6% reduction in profitability, indicating potential margin compression [11][12] Strategic Positioning - Home Depot is currently focused on integrating GMS and optimizing operations for a low-growth environment, with leadership needing to demonstrate that current performance issues are market-driven rather than indicative of structural weaknesses [12][13] - The company is transitioning from aggressive growth strategies to a more cautious approach, preparing for an extended period of slow market conditions [13]

Summary of US Consumer Pulse Survey: Consumer Showing Signs of Weakening Industry Overview - **Industry**: U.S. Consumer Market - **Survey Period**: October 30th - November 3rd, 2025 - **Sample Size**: ~2,000 consumers Key Findings Consumer Confidence - **Decline in Confidence**: Consumer confidence in the economy and household finances has weakened, with only 33% expecting improvement in the economy over the next six months, down from 36% last month and 44% in January [6][8][56] - **Negative Outlook**: 49% of consumers expect the economy to worsen, leading to a NET score of -16%, a decline from -10% last wave and +8% in January [6][8][56] Spending Intentions - **Short-term Spending Outlook**: 31% of consumers plan to spend more next month, while 18% expect to spend less, resulting in a NET of +13%, down from +17% last month and +21% a year ago [6][13][74] - **Long-term Spending Decline**: Longer-term spending outlook has also decreased, with consumers prioritizing essentials like groceries and household supplies [14][82] Inflation and Political Concerns - **Top Concerns**: Inflation remains the primary concern for 57% of consumers, while political environment concerns have risen to 45%, likely due to the government shutdown [7][30][27] - **Debt Repayment Worries**: 21% of consumers are concerned about their ability to repay debts, and 23% worry about paying rent/mortgage, consistent with previous survey results [7][31] Category-Specific Spending Trends - **Negative Spending Intentions**: Categories such as apparel, toys, leisure/entertainment, and consumer electronics show the most negative net spending intentions, with apparel at NET -18% and toys at NET -19% [15][83] - **Cautious Spending Behavior**: 39% of consumers plan to cut back on spending due to economic conditions, with food away from home being the top category for cutbacks [45][51] Holiday Spending Outlook - **Softer Holiday Season**: 38% of consumers plan to maintain their holiday budgets, while 30% expect to spend more and 23% less, yielding a NET of +6%, down from +14% last year [86][90] - **Price Sensitivity**: Higher prices are cited as the main reason for reduced holiday spending, affecting both those planning to spend more and those cutting back [91][93] Use of Technology in Shopping - **AI Tools Utilization**: About 45% of holiday shoppers are using AI tools for shopping assistance, with younger consumers showing higher engagement [108] Additional Insights - **Political Sentiment**: Significant differences in sentiment are observed based on political affiliation, with liberals showing lower confidence compared to conservatives [65] - **Income Disparities**: Low-income consumers express greater concern over debt repayment and rent, while upper-income consumers are more focused on investment concerns [35][37] This survey indicates a cautious consumer sentiment in the U.S. market, with significant implications for spending behavior and economic outlook.