Core Insights - The federal government shutdown has delayed the release of key economic data, impacting the ability of agencies to provide timely information on inflation, employment, and economic growth [1] Economic Data Release Schedule - Agencies are working to catch up on missed economic reports following a 43-day shutdown, with several reports rescheduled, consolidated, or canceled [1] - New release dates include: - December 3: September industrial production and capacity utilization (originally scheduled for October 17) - December 5: September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index, personal incomes and outlays (originally scheduled for October 31) - December 9: September and October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) (originally scheduled for November 4 and December 2) - December 10: Q3 employment cost index (originally scheduled for October 31) - December 16: November U.S. employment report, including October payrolls (originally scheduled for November 7 and December 5; October household survey canceled) - December 18: November Consumer Price Index (CPI), including a subset of the October report (originally scheduled for November 13 and December 10) - December 23: Q3 Gross Domestic Product, initial estimate (advance GDP estimate scheduled for October 30 canceled; subsequent estimate originally scheduled for December 19 postponed) - December 23: October and November industrial production and capacity utilization (originally scheduled for November 18 and December 16) [1] Pending Reports - Several reports still need to be rescheduled, including: - September housing starts (originally scheduled for October 17) - September new home sales (originally scheduled for October 24) - September advanced reports on trade deficit, wholesale inventories, and retail inventories (originally scheduled for October 29) - September U.S. trade deficit (originally scheduled for November 4) - September business inventories (originally scheduled for November) - October retail sales (originally scheduled for November) - October PCE price index, personal incomes and outlays (originally scheduled for November 26) [1]

France’s private sector grew for the first time in more than a year, defying an initial assessment that it stagnated https://t.co/N0TzKJUG49 ...

[music] [applause] What will Asia look like in 2030. How will geopolitics, supply chain, artificial intelligence change the landscape. We we know the region accounts for onethird of the global economy, twothirds of its population.It we know it will be a consumption hub, production hub, innovation hub. But what does this mean for business. What does this mean for markets.Well, to answer that question, we brought together 80 business leaders from across the region, leading multinationals, Asian corporate cham ...

Western economies need to rethink how innovation works at home. It is tempting to be fatalistic about China’s rise. Instead the West should take on board some vital lessons https://t.co/UcE2kiOGbX ...

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points next week, with investors looking ahead to the rate path in 2026 [1][13] - If the inflation picture improves, further rate cuts could lead to a bullish stock market, with projections for the S&P 500 to reach between 7,000 and 8,000 by the end of next year [14][15] Federal Reserve Leadership - Kevin Hassett is considered a strong candidate to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair, with expectations that he would focus on economic growth rather than aggressive rate hikes [3][4][5] - Hassett's approach is anticipated to prioritize price stability and full employment, moving away from the current Fed's focus on controlling inflation through rate increases [5][12] Consumer Behavior - Recent data indicates that consumers are actively shopping, as evidenced by the popularity of retail apps like Walmart and Best Buy during the holiday season [17][18] - The consumer sentiment appears to be optimistic about the economy's growth potential in 2026, with expectations of a 3 to 4% growth rate and improved job market conditions [20][21] Market Dynamics - The current economic environment is characterized by a booming economy with GDP growth rates around 3.9%, which is significantly higher than the previous 1-2% range [15] - The Fed's actions in raising rates have contributed to an affordability crisis for consumers, impacting their ability to manage debt and loans [12]

Economic Outlook for 2026 - S&P Global Ratings expects AI tailwinds to boost otherwise weak growth in the US [1] - US growth is projected at 2%, potentially driven by AI and data centers, along with lower energy prices and easy financial conditions [2] - AI is estimated to contribute at least 0.5 percentage points to annual US growth [2] - Approximately 80% of domestic spending in the first part of the year was related to AI and data centers [2] Challenges and Risks - Manufacturing sector is experiencing contraction, with tariffs not resulting in the anticipated reshoring [2] - The US economy exhibits a narrowness in labor market strength, demand, manufacturing, and consumer spending [4] - Top 10% of Americans account for roughly 40-50% of spending, indicating a lack of broad-based recovery [5] - Rising electricity demand, driven by data centers, is pushing up utility prices for local communities [7][8] Global Implications - Europe and parts of Asia are benefiting from digital infrastructure build-out in the US, particularly in Ireland, Taiwan, Malaysia, and South Korea [9] - Europe's growth could reach 125% to 150% with the release of the German debt break, focusing on infrastructure and defense [11] - China faces challenges due to a property overhang, despite being a leader in clean tech, with growth around 4-45% [11] - Emerging Markets (EM) are benefiting from lower energy and gasoline prices, which constitute a significant portion of their consumption basket [12] AI and Labor Force Transformation - AI's initial impact on the labor force is expected to be negative, with potential layoffs in the tech sector [13] - The long-term aspiration is for AI to drive new technologies, productivity, and a labor renaissance [13]

Economic Growth - Australia's economic growth likely accelerated at the fastest pace in three years last quarter [1] Monetary Policy - Hotter inflation has prompted traders and some economists to wager the Reserve Bank's next move will be an interest-rate increase [1]

Debt Restructuring - Ukraine initiated a process to exchange securities linked to economic growth into bonds [1] - The restructuring aims to address $3.2 billion debt [1] Creditor Negotiations - Ukraine held another round of talks with a group of private creditors [1]

Nigeria’s economy grew at a slightly faster pace than expected in the third quarter. The better-than-expected outcome will be welcomed by President Bola Tinubu, who is facing mounting criticism https://t.co/oNxeLAyL9o ...

India’s unexpectedly strong economic growth last quarter has reduced chances of an interest rate cut at this week’s central bank’s policy meeting despite record-low inflation https://t.co/uxrnVE8aOI ...