Geopolitics & Influence - Russia is making efforts to expand its influence beyond Western countries [1]

Geopolitical Risk - Israel launches strikes on Yemen's capital, Sanaa [1]

In exchange for its co-operation in Western efforts to take down the Islamic State Khorasan Province, Pakistan has these three main demands https://t.co/2przePYbSb ...

Italian police arrest Ukrainian man suspected of coordinating attacks on the Nord Stream pipelines in 2022, German prosecutors sayhttps://t.co/XHgGKbXpkD ...

India's richest man gets caught in the geopolitical crosswinds, JD Vance says that Russia wants Ukrainian territory it doesn't occupy and employees of a Singapore property giant are accused of taking bribes: Here is your Evening Briefing. https://t.co/9mkiD59HBU ...

Geopolitical & Market Optimism - Markets showed slightly higher optimism due to potential peace deal progress, particularly benefiting European equities [3][4] - Global markets outside Europe stagnated, indicating optimism is not universally shared [5] UK Inflation & Bond Market - UK inflation remains significantly above target, raising concerns about undermined UK data [6] - Long-end gilt yields are rising, mirroring a global trend in rising yields, including Chinese yields [7] - Bond vigilante isms are creeping back into the market, potentially accelerating after Jackson Hole [8] Bond Yields & Jackson Hole - Higher bond yields are seen as a potential problem for global stocks in the coming weeks [9] - Expectations are that Jerome Powell will aim to say very little at Jackson Hole, avoiding validation of a September rate cut unless data is very poor [9][10] - A slightly hawkish stance from Powell is anticipated, potentially disappointing the market [10]

Conflict in the Arctic may be unlikely, but increasing competition between Russia, China and NATO for influence in the region is guaranteed https://t.co/aqMQzHGnfF ...

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of value investing in companies with solid long-term potential, highlighting a strategic approach for individual investors [1]. Group 1 - The individual investor has over five years of experience in personal investing and holds a PhD in Economics, indicating a strong educational background [1]. - The investment strategy focuses on identifying value companies, which suggests a preference for stocks that are undervalued relative to their intrinsic worth [1]. - The investor shares knowledge and analysis to support the community of individual investors, reflecting a commitment to educating others in the investment space [1].

Geopolitical Strategy - The analysis focuses on whether the West will establish a clear deterrent ("stop sign") against Vladimir Putin's actions, similar to strategies employed after World War II and in South Korea [1][2] - The core issue is whether the West will implement measures to deter further Russian aggression, a strategy absent since Putin became president [3] - The presence of a Western-backed security force, US involvement in rebuilding Ukraine, and the presence of American business owners, contractors, and military advisors in Ukraine would act as a "trip wire" [3] - Without a clear deterrent, Russia is expected to regroup and invade again [4] Proposed Deterrent Measures - Establishing a security force in Ukraine with US backing [3] - US participation in rebuilding Ukraine, including the presence of American business owners and contractors [3] - Deployment of American military advisors in Ukraine [3]

Market Technicals - Bulls are looking for a breakout above the 200-day and 50-day moving averages, with the 50-day at $65.70 as a key level for confirming momentum shift [1] - A close above $65.70 is necessary to attract new long positions, while failure to hold above $64.06 could lead to increased selling pressure [1] Geopolitical Factors - The upcoming Trump-Putin summit is causing market nerves, with potential ceasefire talks in Ukraine seen as bearish for crude oil prices due to the possibility of eased sanctions on Russian oil [2][3] - The situation remains fluid, with Trump threatening secondary sanctions on countries like India and China, adding to the headline risk [3] Demand Concerns - Weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data has raised concerns about oil demand, despite a nearly 9% year-over-year increase in refinery throughput in July [4] - The month-on-month slowdown in refinery throughput and higher product exports suggest that domestic fuel demand in China may be leveling off [4] Supply Outlook - Bank of America has increased its oil surplus forecast to nearly 900,000 barrels per day (bpd) through mid-2026, citing rising OPEC+ output [5] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) has also expressed concerns about a "bloated" market, indicating a bearish supply outlook [5] - The Baker Hughes oil rig count has increased by one to 412, signaling that U.S. supply is not diminishing [5] Price Forecast - With resistance at $64.06 holding firm and no bullish catalysts in sight, the outlook for crude oil is leaning towards the downside [6] - A break below $61.94 could trigger further selling, while prices need to clear $65.70 to avoid being stuck in a consolidation range with downside risks [6]