Colombia held interest rates after consumer prices jumped and policymakers fret about the worsening fiscal outlook and the upcoming hike in the minimum wage. https://t.co/fqxgVoIfIP ...

Meanwhile, Dow's up about 40. We're getting Chicago PMI for that. We'll turn to Rick Santelli.Happy Friday, Rick. Happy Friday. Happy Halloween.And yes, we are getting some of the PMIs. We get confidence numbers. They don't go through the government.Chicago's October read on PMI comes in better than expected. 43.8%. We're expecting a number closer to 42 and a half.There's good and there's bad. This is the best since well, July of this year, but that's still an improvement. sequentially higher than our final ...

By Francisco Rodrigues (All times ET unless indicated otherwise) Cryptocurrency prices ghosted downward over the last 24 hours, haunted by a sell-off in equities after major U.S. tech firms Meta and Microsoft raised their AI investment projections, prompting overspending concerns. Bitcoin (BTC) was little changed, dropping 0.3% to around $110,000 on the 17th anniversary of the publication of its white paper, while ether fell 1.3% to about $3,840. The not-so-spooky move comes as traders assess the shiftin ...

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has cut the federal funds rate three times in 2024 and recently made a second cut in 2025, leading to a decline in deposit interest rates, including money market account (MMA) rates [1] - The national average rate for MMAs is currently 0.59%, while top high-yield accounts offer rates exceeding 4% APY, significantly higher than the national average [2][9] - Online banks and credit unions are highlighted as the best sources for competitive MMA rates due to lower overhead costs and not-for-profit structures, respectively [4][5] Group 1: Money Market Account Rates - The national average MMA rate is 0.59%, but high-yield accounts can offer rates over 4% APY, which is more than six times the national average [2] - Online banks typically provide the best MMA rates due to reduced operational costs, allowing them to offer higher deposit rates [4] - Credit unions also offer competitive rates, often ranging from 3% to 4% APY, but may have membership requirements [5] Group 2: Benefits and Considerations of Money Market Accounts - Money market accounts are suitable for short-term savings goals, offering higher interest rates than regular savings accounts and easier access to funds compared to CDs [5][7] - These accounts are considered low-risk and are FDIC-insured up to $250,000 per depositor, per institution, making them safer than money market funds [6] - Many MMAs require a minimum balance to earn the highest advertised rates, and there may be transaction limits that could affect accessibility [6][7]

“Developers have to make a profit to reinvest in new sites,” says the adviser. “The owners are likely looking to get some money out now, thinking there might be another three years of this Government where profitability is being eaten away, and they’re better off trying to cash in now.”Not all of the shops in Battersea Power Station are high-end. But even outside of the luxury market, there are challenges. A rise in employer National Insurance and minimum wage has hit retailers hard.Meanwhile, flats above a ...

Core Insights - D.R. Horton, Inc. has recently missed expectations in home building, revenues, deliveries, and earnings per share, leading to concerns about the company's performance in the current economic climate [1] - The company is facing challenges that require it to offer incentives to boost sales, indicating a potential compromise on pricing strategies [1] - D.R. Horton provided weak revenue guidance for the 2026 fiscal year, despite projecting better-than-expected deliveries, highlighting a cautious outlook from management [1] - The current quarter's guidance was particularly weak, contributing to a significant decline in the stock price [1] - The housing industry is heavily influenced by interest rates, and D.R. Horton is in need of lower rates to stimulate business activity [1] Company Overview - D.R. Horton, Inc. operates in the construction and sale of single-family and multi-family homes across the United States [2]

Hedge funds are betting the yen will weaken to as low as 160 per dollar by the end of the year, driven by changing approaches to interest rates from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan https://t.co/BXyxi1DxQY ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The macroeconomic outlook indicates a focus on global GDP growth, particularly in China, the US, and the Euro area, with specific forecasts for the years 2025 to 2027 [1][4][5]. Key Economic Forecasts - **China**: - Real GDP growth forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 have been raised to 5.0%, 4.8%, and 4.7% year-over-year (yoy) respectively, up from previous estimates of 4.9%, 4.3%, and 4.0% [1][5]. - This increase is attributed to the government's commitment to enhancing manufacturing competitiveness, increased government spending, and improved export growth expectations [1][5]. - Inflation expectations for China are projected at 0% for Consumer Price Index (CPI) and -2.6% for Producer Price Index (PPI) this year [5]. - **United States**: - GDP growth is expected to slow to 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a full-year growth forecast of 1.9% [4]. - Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation is anticipated to rise to 3.0% yoy by the end of 2025, with an unemployment rate expected to reach 4.5% [4]. - The Federal Reserve is projected to implement one more 25 basis point rate cut in December 2025, followed by two additional cuts in 2026 [4]. - **Euro Area**: - Real GDP growth is forecasted at 1.4% yoy in 2025, with core inflation expected to stabilize around 2.3% [4][5]. - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to maintain its current policy stance due to anticipated better growth and target-consistent inflation [4]. Global Economic Dynamics - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring US policy, global fiscal dynamics, and geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing tensions in US-China relations and the situations in Ukraine and the Middle East [5]. Additional Insights - The global economic growth is projected to slow to 2.7% yoy in 2025, influenced by higher US tariffs and other economic headwinds [4]. - The report highlights the potential risks posed by fiscal pressures in major economies, including the US, UK, France, and Japan, which could have significant macroeconomic implications [5]. Conclusion - The macroeconomic outlook presents a cautiously optimistic view for China, while the US and Euro area face challenges that could impact growth. Investors are advised to remain vigilant regarding policy changes and geopolitical developments that may affect market conditions [5].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic environment, focusing on the impact of tariffs on the U.S. economy and the bond market strategies. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Tariff Impact on Prices** Evidence suggests that tariffs imposed by the U.S. are exerting upward pressure on goods prices, but other factors are outweighing these inflationary pressures, necessitating a deeper understanding of these dynamics [1][10][9]. 2. **Customs Receipts and Tariff Revenue** Customs receipts into the U.S. Treasury are on track to achieve the largest monthly collections ever, with collections through October 23 indicating a significant increase compared to previous quarters [9][10][14]. 3. **Nonlabor Costs and Unit Profits** Higher nonfinancial corporate unit nonlabor costs without corresponding unit pricing power indicate a potential decline in unit labor costs, which may prevent further downside in unit profits [9][10]. 4. **Inflation Trends** Over the past year, headline CPI inflation has been lower than consensus expectations, suggesting that while tariffs contribute to inflation, deflation in less exposed goods has mitigated overall inflationary effects [10][16]. 5. **Corporate Profitability Risks** Nonfinancial corporate profits per unit of real gross valued added have declined, placing them in recession risk territory, which could lead companies to either raise prices or cut labor costs [16][20]. 6. **Market Reactions to Economic Data** The market's reaction to inflation data has been positive, supporting a "Goldilocks" scenario where inflation remains low and stable, but the current data does not support this environment [25][26]. 7. **Bond Market Strategies** The report discusses various strategies for navigating the bond market, including staying long on U.S. Treasuries and focusing on the implications of the TGA (Treasury General Account) on funding conditions [28][31]. 8. **German Fiscal Announcement** The German fiscal announcement indicates a rise in deficit/GDP ratios, which is seen as positive for growth but may lead to less pressure on the bond market due to non-market funding sources [5][46]. 9. **Japanese Government Bond (JGB) Issuance** There are misconceptions regarding JGB issuance, with political uncertainty shifting towards policy uncertainty, affecting market perceptions of additional issuance risks [6][54]. Other Important but Potentially Overlooked Content 1. **Long-Term Economic Outlook** The discussion emphasizes the need for investors to reassess their views on inflation and economic growth, particularly in light of changing nonlabor cost dynamics and demand environments [16][20]. 2. **Investor Behavior During Economic Shifts** Historical patterns suggest that during economic downturns, companies may struggle to pass on higher costs to consumers, impacting labor and profit dynamics [15][20]. 3. **Emerging Trends in Stripping** The stripping market has reached $1 trillion outstanding, driven by strong demand for duration and liability matching, indicating a shift in investment strategies among pension funds [4][55]. 4. **Global Macro Strategy Implications** The overall macroeconomic strategy suggests a cautious approach to investments, particularly in light of potential rate cuts and the evolving landscape of U.S. Treasury performance [29][58]. 5. **Focus on Funding Conditions** The report highlights that funding conditions are more influenced by the demand environment for repo financing rather than liquidity shortages, which is crucial for understanding market dynamics [31][44].

But my next guest sees the index heading higher ultimately into year end. Let's bring in macro risk advisors John Kovvis. John, it's uh it's great to catch up with you here.I mean, we're, you know, S&P bleeding lower here down about 8/10 of 1% and there was some excitement when we got that breakout above 6,800. It seemed pretty emphatic. Where does this leave us uh as we just kind of give back some of those recent gains.>> Hey Mike, good to see you again. Uh, I think ultimately until we break the October lo ...