Many indicators show that the U.S. economy is slowing. Unemployment is at a 4-year high, while the Expectations Index deteriorated further below 80 - a threshold that typically signals a recession ahead. Lumber prices haveAnalyst’s Disclosure:I/we have no stock, option or similar derivative position in any of the companies mentioned, and no plans to initiate any such positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (oth ...

Analyst’s Disclosure:I/we have a beneficial short position in the shares of SPX either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article. Seeking Alpha's Disclosure: Past performance is no guarantee of future results. No recommendation or advice is being given as to whether any in ...

So this takes our effective corporate tax rate in the United States, not statutory, that's still at 21, but the effective tax rate for the next three years at least is going to be roughly 10%, one of the lowest in the world. So I think we're in for some very good times. We think we're moving from a rolling recession into a recovery and then into a productivity driven boom in activity.Productivity is one of the most potent anti-inflationary forces. This is uh this is reeganomics. It's deja vu.And you'll see ...

All these headwinds? Well, let's ask G Squared Private Wealth CIO and CNBC contributor Victoria Green and Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Chief Investment Officer Brent Chute. Guys, uh, welcome. Um, Victoria, it's been a really good September by historical standards, unless tomorrow's a disaster. Uh, so assuming it's not, should investors stay long risk? Yes, we're advising staying long risk because we don't fight the Fed. We don't fight the tape. And there are three things going for this market. Tech ...

Mozambique’s central bank cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low to support its economy that’s in a recession https://t.co/ySKjMdReaV ...

Core Insights - Business spending experienced a significant decline in the second quarter, primarily attributed to the ongoing trade war [1] Group 1: Economic Impact - The trade war has led to a sharp decrease in business investment, indicating a negative impact on economic growth [1] - Companies are becoming increasingly cautious in their spending due to uncertainty surrounding trade policies [1] Group 2: Sector Analysis - Certain sectors are more affected by the decline in business spending, particularly those heavily reliant on exports [1] - The overall sentiment in the business community reflects concerns over future profitability and market stability due to trade tensions [1]

If you follow the news, then you’ve likely heard a lot of discussion about the ups and downs of the market. Between reports of market fluctuations and increased prices for consumers, the pressure can feel overwhelming. Understandably, you may be anxious about how to handle a potential economic downturn. For You: The One Dangerous Habit Keeping You in Credit Card Debt, According to Liz Claman Learn About: 3 Advanced Investing Moves Experts Use to Minimize Taxes and Help Boost Returns Suze Orman understands ...

Economic Impact of Potential Shutdown - A short government shutdown (one to two weeks) is unlikely to have a significant macroeconomic or market impact [1] - A data blackout caused by a shutdown would be particularly problematic given the current inflection point in the labor market and the Fed's upcoming interest rate decision [3] - If the shutdown lasts longer than two weeks, it could become a real problem and investors will likely take notice [4] Labor Market Conditions - The labor market is currently weak, with little to no job growth in recent months [3][4] - Businesses have pulled back on hiring, reduced hours, and cut back on temporary jobs, but layoffs remain low [5] - The expectation is for a flat job market, and revisions may show a net loss of jobs [6] Consumer Spending and GDP - Second quarter GDP growth was 380% (原文应为3.8%，此处为笔误) and August personal spending was 6%, both better than expected [7] - Strong consumer spending is attributed to the wealth effect from the stock market, primarily benefiting high-income households [8] - The saving rate has declined, indicating that high-income consumers are spending more aggressively [9] Economic Vulnerabilities - The economy is vulnerable because almost half of all spending is done by the top 10% of the income distribution (making over approximately $275,000-$300,000 per year) [12][13] - If the stock market declines and people start seeing losses, the saving rate could increase, potentially leading to a recession given the lack of job growth [15] - Disturbing data on average FICO scores and collapses in auto subprime financing indicate potential pain for the lower income cohort [11]

Market Overview & Economic Outlook - Market experienced minor declines, around 1% or less, but this reflects recent market trends [1] - The economy maintains significant momentum, supported by GDP revisions [2] - AI super cycle continues to drive growth in mega-cap tech stocks [2] - A consolidation period is expected, but the strength of the economy and the AI sector suggest it won't be a major correction [3] Investment Strategy & Sector Focus - Today is generally a good day to invest for long-term goals like retirement, savings, and college [3] - For those nearing retirement, a more conservative approach focusing on dividend growth or dividend income stocks is advisable [4] - Healthcare sector is currently undervalued, trading at its lowest relative weight in the S&P since 1994, with big pharma trading at approximately a 30% discount to the S&P [8][10] - Healthcare sector is expected to be positively transformed by AI [11] Bull Market & Historical Context - Historically, bull markets have an average length of about 8 years; the current bull market is approximately 2 and a half years old since the Chat GPT lows in October/November 2022 [5] - The NASDAQ is trading about 12% above its 200-day moving average, which is less extended compared to the technology sector in 1999 [6] Risk Factors & Confidence Level - Geopolitical risks, particularly in Eastern Europe and Ukraine, are concerning and could impact oil prices [14][15] - High confidence in avoiding a recession and limiting drawdowns to a maximum of 5-10% [16]

The Canadian economy appears set to avoid a technical recession this year with a strong third-quarter rebound. https://t.co/dE0gIr4hKC ...