Switzerland is likely to face a mild recession, should Donald Trump’s tariffs of 39% stick. Many hope negotiations will bring down the rate. And Switzerland’s flexible economy will be able to adjust https://t.co/t8RogNBNkj ...

- [Narrator] The US economy is facing a make or break moment. - And our country's becoming very rich. - [Narrator] Key economic data is painting a murky picture.Inflation has so far defied the worst of economists' expectations, and the US consumer remains strong, but pockets of weakness in the labor market and slower growth are raising red flags. - I think most economists expected this summer to really be that period where, you know, you begin to see the effects, and I think we're now like we're right at th ...

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Economic Uncertainty & Recession Risks - Uncertainty, stemming from policy, geopolitical factors, and President Trump's attacks on the Federal Reserve, poses a significant threat to US economic growth [1][2] - Recession risks are higher than average, though not overwhelming, as the US consumer remains resilient [7][9] - Corporate investment is hindered by uncertainty, impacting medium to longer-term plans [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - It's difficult to argue for lower interest rates currently due to uncertainty about future inflation [11] - There are no overwhelming signs of weakening economic activity that would call for monetary policy stimulus [12] - The pass-through of tariffs into higher prices has been modest so far, but it's still early stages [11] Immigration & Demographics - Slower population growth due to immigration shocks negatively impacts medium-term potential output [8][9] - Aging populations and declining birth rates in the US and other advanced economies impact potential growth [14] - Immigration has historically contributed to trend growth in the US economy [8][14] Debt & Fiscal Policy - The US budget bill is estimated to add at least $3 trillion to the deficit over the next 9 to 10 years [15] - High debt levels and debt servicing costs are a concern, potentially hindering more productive investments [17][18] Globalization & Trade - Globalization has been off its peak since the global financial crisis [20] - While globalization has benefited consumers through cheaper products, it has also led to a hollowing out of various sectors in the US [20][22] - Increased global cooperation is preferred over a fragmented system [22] Global Debt Crisis - The unfolding debt crisis in low-income countries is something to watch, as it could amplify to emerging markets with bigger footprints [24][25]

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A 30% probability of a US recession might sound like a red flag, yet global stocks remain buoyant as betting against the market momentum “feels almost irrational,” according to a Goldman trader https://t.co/fsNTTGeLYX ...

Bank of America CEO Brian Moyahan says he does does not expect a recession despite today's disappointing ISM data. Take a listen to what he said. >> Our economists believe there'll be no recession.They believe the econ the economy in the US will go about 1 one and a half% this year. They believe that the Fed will not cut rates because inflation will take longer to get down. >> That the Fed will not cut rates >> during 25.They'll cut them at 26. And that they've been on that for a long time. And they believe ...

Um, let me pivot to the economy, which is the topic in debate that's happening here, which is really just how strong it is or is not. Uh, you saw the jobs numbers on Friday. Uh, but there's a lot of folks here who have sort of varying views of what's really going on.You actually have the data. So, I'm curious what you're actually seeing. So, look, our economists believe there'll be no recession.They believe the econ the economy in the US will go about 1 one and a half% this year. They believe that the Fed w ...

Uh futures are higher this morning up a little bit but maybe getting back half of Friday's uh drop. Treasury yields fell significantly to end the week. That was uh definitely eyeopening.Kelsey Barrows, fixed income portfolio manager at JP Morgan, manager at JP Morgan Asset Management, you were okay this week. I mean, you weren't you didn't lose any sleep. I'm reading your notes.you're like, you know, it there's there's some interesting things happening, but not um really not that earthshattering. You point ...

It is day 194 of the second Trump administration and it was not a good day for the Trump economy. On Wall Street, the Dow, S&P, and NASDAQ all lost more than a full percentage point. The selloff comes after Trump rolled out a list of new tariff rates on countries that haven't reached trade deals with the US.Those new rates take effect one week from today. But the big headline, the real story was the labor market. Economists were set to see a weak July jobs report today, but it was even worse than expected.I ...