Tom Lee has had a front row seat to more than a fair share of stock market pops and drops. Lee, a veteran Wall Street analyst who has tracked the stock market since the 1990s, is the founder of Fundstrat, a respected equity research firm that advises money managers and high-net worth investors. His extensive stock market experience means he has navigated the internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, the Covid pandemic, and 2022's bear market. Those experiences taught him valuable investing insights abo ...

Financial Planning - Offers a 5-step plan to protect finances from a recession [1] - Suggests budgeting smarter [1] - Recommends building savings [1] - Advocates diversifying investments [1] Income & Banking - Encourages growing income [1] - Advises choosing the right bank [1]

Key Points More Americans are growing concerned about a potential recession in 2026. While it's impossible to know what's coming, now is a smart time to start preparing your portfolio. Sometimes, less is more when it comes to protecting your investments. 10 stocks we like better than Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF › This has been an unusual year for the stock market in many ways. After tumbling into correction territory earlier this year, the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) is now closing in on a new ...

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - The Fed's shift towards easier monetary policy, including ending quantitative tightening and leaning towards lower interest rates, is expected to inject liquidity into markets, potentially driving up asset prices [1] - The current GDP growth of approximately 4% is considered strong, comparable to Asian economies, while job weakness is attributed to foreign-born workers returning home, with American worker numbers remaining solid [1] - The Fed's actions are often perceived as benefiting Wall Street, creating a reverse Robin Hood effect where economic crises benefit the wealthy who own assets [3] - The Fed aims for a 2-3% inflation rate to avoid upsetting voters and facing potential congressional intervention, limiting its ability to print excessive amounts of money [2] AI & Technology - AI is currently in a bubble phase, similar to the dot-com era, with potential for further growth due to easy money funding new technologies [1] - AI is not primarily impacting blue-collar jobs but rather white-collar cubicle workers in IT, customer service, accounting, and HR [6] - The AI bubble is still in its early stages, focusing on semiconductor companies like Nvidia and Taiwan Semiconductor, with the "stupidity" phase of malinvestments yet to come [5] Immigration & Labor Market - Mass deportations historically lead to 5 to 10 times more people leaving than are actually deported [4] - Immigration does not necessarily solve labor shortages but rearranges wages, potentially crashing wages for low-skilled Americans while raising demand for skilled workers [4] - Removing immigrants can raise wages for low-income individuals and lower wages for high-skilled individuals, with an unclear overall impact on inflation but a reduction in headline GDP [4] Investment Strategies & Asset Bubbles - The big trade right now is AI, which is considered to be in a bubble, but it may have a few years left to run [5] - Gold and silver are driven by liquidity and the debasement trade, betting on a future crisis due to a lack of structural reforms on budget deficits [5] - Bitcoin's momentum is being affected by AI, as speculators are shifting their focus, but its debasement argument remains strong [5] Social & Political Commentary - Communism resonates most with elite kids who are losing status, driven by factors like deportations and the impact of AI on white-collar jobs [6] - Government interference often leads to negative consequences, and the battle between freedom and socialism is a constant one [13][14] - UBI may disincentivize work and reinforce poverty, potentially becoming politically appealing during the next recession due to AI-related job losses [7][8][9][10][11][12]

Core Insights - Macy's is experiencing a decline in customer behavior during the critical holiday season, with net sales decreasing by 0.6% year-over-year in Q3 [1] - The company's net sales at its namesake stores fell by 2.3%, and net income dropped to $11 billion, a 60% decrease compared to the same quarter last year [2] - Foot traffic at Macy's stores declined by almost 11% year-over-year, indicating weakening consumer demand [2] Consumer Behavior and Economic Impact - The decline in customer behavior follows price increases implemented earlier this year, coinciding with tariff policies that have made consumers more cautious about spending [3] - Approximately 87% of consumers are concerned about tariffs affecting their finances, with 63% worried about rising prices of everyday goods [8] - 82% of consumers plan to alter their shopping habits due to tariffs, including cutting back on nonessential spending and seeking discounts [8] Company Strategy - Macy's COO stated that the impact of tariffs has been less severe than anticipated due to proactive measures like cost negotiations and vendor discounting [6] - The company plans to continue these efforts to mitigate tariff impacts and monitor ongoing tariff situations [7]

BritCats Studio / Shutterstock.com What I find most fascinating about the markets in general (mostly the headlines in the financial media) is the amount of certainty that can go into bullish or bearish calls. Whichever side of the fence a particular analyst or talking head finds themselves on, I feel as though a given position can become more entrenched over time. Quick Read Tariff uncertainty and rising inflation pressures are causing businesses to delay hiring decisions. The new tax and spending bi ...

Economic Overview - The economy is facing significant uncertainty as 2025 approaches, with a projected 93% chance of a recession according to UBS [1] - Despite advancements in technologies like generative AI boosting GDP growth, consumers are struggling with rising prices and a softening job market [1] Defensive Stocks - Economic downturns typically negatively impact stocks due to reduced spending and slower growth, but certain companies can thrive regardless of economic conditions [2] - Dollar General and Realty Income are highlighted as companies that are well-positioned to withstand economic challenges [2] Realty Income - Realty Income is a leading REIT known for its large monthly dividend yield of 5.63%, appealing to retirees [3] - The company has a history of maintaining its dividend through past financial crises, indicating a resilient business model [3] - Realty Income's strategy involves acquiring single-tenant commercial properties and leasing them to high-quality tenants, with no single client type accounting for more than 11% of total rent [4] - The company benefits from triple-net leases, where tenants cover operating costs, thus managing risk effectively [4] - A recession could potentially enhance Realty Income's growth prospects, as seen in previous bull runs following downturns in 2001 and 2007 [5] - The real estate sector is sensitive to interest rates, and typically, the Federal Reserve lowers rates during recessions, which could benefit Realty Income's growth potential [6] Dollar General - Dollar General, founded in 1939, is the largest chain of dollar stores in the U.S., targeting lower-income consumers with low prices [7] - The company has faced challenges from inflation but is positioned to attract customers from larger retailers during a recession [8] - Dollar General's unique market niche allows it to offer products in small quantities, catering to consumers needing to minimize spending [9] - In the second quarter, Dollar General reported a 5.1% year-over-year increase in net sales to $10.7 billion and an 8.3% rise in operating profits to $595 million [10] - The company offers a forward P/E ratio of 16, which is lower than the S&P 500 average of 22, along with a modest dividend yield of 2.16% [10]

Economic Growth and Market Impact - The overall economy is showing weakness with real GDP growth at 2% year-on-year, employment growth at 0.8%, retail sales up only 1.3%, and industrial production increasing by 0.9% [2][3] - There is a concern that economic conditions will continue to deteriorate into the new year, prompting the Federal Reserve to implement more aggressive policy measures to avoid recession and support recovery [3][4] Government Debt and Inflation - Governments worldwide, including the US, are expected to face increasing deficits due to aging populations and demands for more services, which will likely lead to inflation [5] - The issuance of government bonds will necessitate money printing, contributing to inflationary pressures in the economy [6]

What's going on guys? Today I got a great conversation with Darius Dale for you. In this conversation we talk about the deep divisions at the Federal Reserve. Are they going to cut rates in December? Who is going to be the next leader of the Federal Reserve? And how is the Fed actually impacting different asset prices? What is 42 macro doing to navigate all the chaos up, down, sideways, backwards? Prices are going everywhere. People are completely confused as to how the Fed is going to act. And the market i ...

Although the overall market is flat today, some momentum names staging a strong comeback such as quantum computing stocks and the Buzz ETF. So, are investors once again willing to take on riskier parts of the markets. Joining me now is Paulson Perspectives author Jim Pollson and Ariel Investments vice chairman Charlie Babrinskoy.Guys, welcome. Jim, you're concerned about economic growth here. What what's the impact potentially in the markets.Yeah, I I think that um I think the economy is fairly weak awardly ...