Core Insights - The US soybean industry is significantly impacted by the ongoing trade war with China, leading to unfavorable market conditions [1] Global Soybean Market Update - China is projected to import 112.0 million metric tons (mmt) of soybeans during the 2025-2026 marketing year, unchanged from the previous month and an increase of 5.5 mmt from 2024-2025 [2] - Brazil's soybean exports for the 2025-2026 marketing year are also estimated at 112.0 mmt, unchanged from last month and up 9.9 mmt from 2024-2025, which would surpass Brazil's previous record of 104.17 mmt from 2023-2024 [2] - The USDA estimates US soybean exports at 45.86 mmt for 2025-2026, a decrease of 0.54 mmt from last month and down 5.17 mmt from 2024-2025, marking the lowest export figure since 2019-2020 [2] Historical Context - In the 2014-2015 marketing year, Brazil and the US were nearly even in exports, with Brazil at 50.61 mmt and the US at 50.14 mmt, while China imported 78.35 mmt [3] - The following year, Brazil's exports increased to 54.38 mmt, while US exports fell to 52.86 mmt, as China's imports rose to 83.23 mmt [3] - The trade dynamics shifted significantly after the US presidential election in 2016, with Brazil's exports rising to 63.14 mmt and US exports dropping to 52.86 mmt, as China's imports increased to 93.5 mmt [3] - The trade war initiated in January 2018 led to a further decline in US exports to 58.07 mmt during the 2017-2018 marketing year, while Brazil's exports surged to 76.18 mmt and China's imports reached a record high of 94.1 mmt [3]

We worry about drought, we worry about pricing. We worry about equipment. We worry about financing. This tariff is just another thing that we have to worry about.Todd Western, the third is a soybean farmer in Waterloo, Iowa. He says trade tensions between the U.S. and China are fueling uncertainty for his business. China, the world's largest buyer of soybeans, hasn't pre-purchased any soybeans for the upcoming US harvest.The revenue on our farm is just like any other farm. It's volatile. Western and other f ...

Core Viewpoint - U.S. President Donald Trump's request for the European Union to impose tariffs of up to 100% on China and India for their Russian oil purchases has raised concerns, with analysts suggesting that Europe is unlikely to comply due to its complex trade relationships and ongoing negotiations with these countries [1][4][7]. Group 1: U.S. and EU Relations - Trump proposed the tariffs during a meeting with senior U.S. and EU officials, indicating that the U.S. would mirror any tariffs imposed by Europe on China and India [2]. - The European Commission emphasized its ongoing engagement with global partners, including India and China, in enforcing sanctions against Russia, while preparing new sanctions tools to target circumvention through third countries [3][11]. Group 2: Economic Implications - The EU's bilateral trade with Russia was valued at €67.5 billion ($78.1 billion) in 2024, with imports primarily consisting of fuel and mining products [12]. - The EU has struggled to reduce its reliance on Russian gas, with Russia's share of EU pipeline gas imports dropping from over 40% in 2021 to about 11.6% in 2024 [13]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The U.S. has encouraged European allies to switch to U.S. LNG, with expectations of a $750 billion offtake in U.S. energy products over the next three years as part of a framework trade deal [14]. - U.S. Secretary of Interior Doug Burgum highlighted the potential for U.S. LNG exports to displace Russian gas in Europe, which would benefit both the U.S. and its allies [16].

Group 1 - Nearly half of U.S. companies operating in China are urging for the elimination of all tariffs on Chinese goods, with 48% of respondents in a survey supporting this action [1][2] - The annual China Business Report by AmCham indicates that trade volatility has severely impacted bilateral commerce, with Chinese shipments to the U.S. falling by 33.1% year-over-year in August and U.S. imports to China dropping by 16% [3][4] - Two-thirds of survey respondents expect tariff tensions to negatively impact their revenues in China, particularly in the chemicals, logistics, and industrial manufacturing sectors [4][5] Group 2 - The survey reveals that only 18% of companies redirected investments to the U.S., while 51% opted for Southeast Asia as an alternative to operations in China [6] - Despite concerns, 71% of members reported profitability in 2024, an increase from 66% in 2023, with revenue growth rising to 57% from 50% [6] - However, only 45% of companies expect revenue increases this year, marking a record low, and just 30% anticipate China outperforming global growth rates in the next three to five years [7]

Core Viewpoint - Donald Trump's attempt to remove Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve has been blocked by a federal judge, highlighting the ongoing tension between the Trump administration and the Fed's independence [1][4]. Group 1: Legal Developments - A federal judge ruled that the claims against Lisa Cook regarding mortgage fraud were likely insufficient for her removal from the Federal Reserve [2][4]. - The White House alleged that Cook inaccurately described properties on mortgage applications, potentially allowing her to secure lower interest rates and tax credits [3]. - Cook's lawyer emphasized the ruling as a reinforcement of the Federal Reserve's independence from political interference [13]. Group 2: Economic Context - Trump's calls for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates have not been heeded, as the central bank remains focused on inflation concerns linked to the trade war [5][7]. - The potential for a rate cut may arise due to a deterioration in the employment market, which has been negatively impacted by the trade war [5]. - The Federal Reserve's dual mandate includes ensuring maximum employment while controlling inflation, which complicates the influence of political demands on monetary policy [7][12].

overseas where Russian President Vladimir Putin met with Chinese leader Xihinping as well as Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at a summit in China yesterday. As the New York Times reports, it was a scene almost certainly intended for an audience on the other side of the world. The leaders of China, Russia, and India, the three largest powers not aligned with the West, smiling and laughing like good friends as they greeted each other.Analysts told the paper the friendliness between Mr. . Shei and Mr. . Pu ...

DECOUPLING FROM DOLLARSThe US sends India billions in printed dollars for valuable goods. This is actually the US government ripping off India, like it does Vietnam, and everyone else, including its own citizens...not vice versa.To be precise: last year India exported $87B of valuable goods to the US for $42B of goods plus $45B worth of increasingly worthless dollars:That difference of $45B was, effectively, made up by money printing, which the Fed does at will:The current administration incorrectly thinks ...

All right, joining us now, NBC News business and data correspondent Brian Chung. Also with us here on set, Axio senior economic reporter Courtney Brown. Brian, I'm going to start with you.For those of us who've been just overwhelmed and maybe on holiday or maybe just can't handle it anymore, can you please remind us what tariffs are in question here. Which ones this ruling uh cover and and what could be impacted. >> Yeah, Christina, this this did happen very late on Friday as people were beginning the their ...

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The market initially reacted to the Lisa Cook story, but those moves have largely been shrugged off because it's likely she will win the fight to reinstate her job, maintaining the Fed's status quo [2][3] - Trump's potential doubling down on attacks on Fed independence and credibility is an undermining of US institutions, ultimately bad for long-end yields, bonds, US stocks, and the dollar [4][5] Geopolitical & Trade Tensions - The trade war never really went away and is more accurately described as a US attack on the global trade system, which is likely to continue affecting businesses, consumers, and global growth [7][8] - The US is also discussing digital taxes, indicating that trade deals previously thought to be done may not be [6] Market Catalysts & Risks - Several negative catalysts are on the horizon, including Nvidia earnings, inflation data (core PC and CPI), and jobs data [9][10][11] - Weak jobs data could worry the market about a US recession, while strong data would undermine expectations of rate cuts, creating a lose-lose situation for stocks [10] - Historically, the equity market tends to decline in September [9]

Core Viewpoint - Canada is reversing its tariffs on approximately $21.7 billion worth of American goods in an effort to ease trade tensions with the Trump administration, while maintaining tariffs on certain sectors like steel, aluminum, and automobiles [1][4][5]. Group 1: Policy Shift - Prime Minister Mark Carney will announce the removal of 25% tariffs on a wide range of US consumer goods that comply with the North American trade agreement [1][4]. - This marks a significant change in Canada's approach, moving away from aggressive retaliation against US tariffs that characterized Carney's election campaign [2][8]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The tariff rollback will exempt American products such as orange juice, wine, clothing, and motorcycles from the previously imposed import taxes [4][17]. - Canada's earlier retaliatory measures targeted about $21.6 billion in US shipments, but the recent policy change is expected to alleviate some economic pressures without triggering inflation, as consumer prices rose only 1.7% year-over-year in July [11][19]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The decision to roll back tariffs is seen as a strategy to ease tensions with the White House and prepare for the upcoming review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement [6]. - Carney's administration has shown skepticism towards the effectiveness of tit-for-tat trade measures, leading to exemptions for certain US items and potential relief for automakers maintaining Canadian manufacturing [13][16].