Economic Outlook & GDP - Consensus view, including CBO and Fed, anticipates GDP growth slowdown due to tariffs and headwinds like student loan payments restarting [3][4] - Potential for stagflation exists if tariffs of $400 billion lead to either higher inflation or lower earnings [2][5] - US GDP growth may slow to 1%-15% in the next 12 months, but the US growth outlook remains stronger than other countries like Europe [14][15] Trade & Tariffs - Tariffs raising $400 billion could significantly impact S&P 500 earnings, potentially reducing them by 20% if companies absorb the costs [2] - Trade remains a significant risk factor, particularly regarding who bears the burden of the $400 billion in tariffs [2] US Dollar & Fed Policy - The dollar experienced a 10% decline in trade-weighted terms over the past six months [7] - The market's pricing for Fed rate cuts this year is considered too aggressive; only one rate cut is expected [8] - The Fed committee, not solely the chair, decides on interest rates and QE, limiting the chair's individual influence [11][12] - The outlook for the dollar in the second half of the year is brighter, partly due to Section 899 being resolved [6][15] Labor Market - The labor market is currently holding up well, with jobless claims remaining relatively stable [9][10]

the first legislative win for the crypto industry, the Genius Act passing in the Senate earlier this week. The bill establishing a federal framework for stable coins and now going to face a vote in the House. Joining us right now is Paulo Arduino.He's the CEO of blockchain platform Tether. Good morning to you. Uh a big move uh in terms of the the sort of next stage of uh of of where you think stable coins go, but there does seem to be some kind of fight taking place in the House over all of this.How involve ...

Market Impact of Geopolitical Events - Oil price spikes due to geopolitical events are typically short-lived, unless a major disruption like the closure of the Straits of Hormuz occurs [2] - Protracted geopolitical conflicts could lead to lower yields due to a flight to quality and a stronger dollar, but are generally not market-friendly [3] - A "flight to safety" is more accurate than a "flight to quality" in the current environment, with US Treasuries and the US dollar being the beneficiaries [4] - Market participants were previously concerned about a weak dollar and higher 10-year yields [5] Investment Opportunities - Past geopolitical events have often presented buying opportunities, depending on the market discount offered [6] - The current situation is viewed as a potential buying opportunity, barring a major escalation like World War II [6] - Companies involved in drone warfare and arsenal buildup, such as Northrup Grumman (NOC) and Kratos, may present investment opportunities [7][8] - The market dip is considered a buying opportunity [10][11] Market Indicators - The 10-year yield has decreased from 445 basis points to 433 basis points [5] - The VIX is not expected to remain at its current level of 21, and is likely to either increase significantly or gradually decline [10] - The dollar has only increased by a small amount over the last few trading days [5]