Cardboard-box demand is slumping, flashing a potential warning about the health of the American consumer https://t.co/uJckCuRNIz ...

Economic Overview - Canadian GDP data for July and flash estimates for August will provide insights into the economic recovery after a 1.6% contraction from April to June due to the US tariff war [1] - The US economy shows early signs of recovery, with August spending data expected to indicate brisk consumer spending despite tepid income growth [2] Federal Reserve Insights - Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a cooling labor market as a reason for the first interest rate cut of the year, while remaining vigilant on inflation amid ongoing tariff impacts [4] - A report is anticipated to show a slower growth rate in the personal consumption expenditures price index, providing the Fed some leeway to address labor market weaknesses [5] Central Bank Activities - Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will discuss trade upheaval's effects on inflation and rates, while Statistics Canada will release population estimates amid post-pandemic immigration challenges [6] - Several central banks, including those in Sweden, Switzerland, and Hungary, are expected to maintain current rates, while Mexico and Nigeria are likely to implement cuts [7] Global Economic Indicators - Flash purchasing manager indexes (PMIs) in Asia and Europe will be closely monitored, with key readings from Australia and India expected to show service sector momentum [9] - Japan's midweek PMIs and retail sales data will provide insights into household spending, critical for the Bank of Japan's policy discussions [10] China Economic Data - China's August industrial profits will be reported, assessing corporate earnings stability after months of deflationary pressure, with government spending growth slowing [11] Latin America Economic Developments - Brazil's central bank will release minutes from its recent rate-setting meeting, maintaining a key rate of 15% amid high inflation [19] - Mexico is expected to continue its streak of rate cuts, with analysts anticipating a reduction to 7.5% as inflation remains within the central bank's tolerance range [22][23]

Halloween spending in the US is expected to climb to a record $13.1 billion this year despite consumer wariness about tariffs and higher costs of living, according to a survey by the National Retail Federation https://t.co/qiLkUXLZuC ...

Howard Schneider with Reuters. So, um, as you mentioned a minute ago, some margins of the job market would suggest that the slides already happening. Black unemployment rate in August was above 7%.Uh, declining work week, difficulty among co college graduates finding work, high rising youth unemployment. Why do you think a quarter percentage point now is going to arrest that. Well, I I hadn't say that I thought a quarter point would make a huge difference to the economy, but you got to look at the whole pat ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve has cut interest rates by a quarter point and anticipates two more cuts within the year [1] - Despite concerns about the economy reflected in consumer sentiment, household finances are reported to be in good shape overall [1] - Consumer spending has slowed but remains resilient, primarily driven by demand from higher-income consumers [2]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates by 25 basis points now, with potential for two more cuts by the end of the year, leading to a year-end target for Fed funds at no higher than 3.63% [2][3] - Concerns are raised about the near disappearance of job growth in the US economy, which may necessitate continued rate cuts unless satisfactory job growth resumes [3][10] Consumer Spending and Sentiment - Consumer spending is projected to slow, with expectations of disinflation resuming in early 2026, despite recent reports indicating growth in retail sales for August [4][8] - A significant drop in consumer sentiment was noted, with early September readings from the University of Michigan in the bottom 1.5% of all monthly readings since 1878, indicating increased consumer worry about the future [7][10] Labor Market Dynamics - There is a disconnect between the labor market and consumer sentiment, with consumer spending remaining resilient despite weak job growth readings [10][14] - For consumer spending to remain robust, job growth needs to increase by approximately 100,000 jobs or more per month; otherwise, it may negatively impact consumer spending [14] Holiday Season Expectations - The holiday season is anticipated to be average, with upper-income households likely to perform better, while middle and lower-income households may face spending challenges due to inflation and stagnant income growth [12][13] - The impact of tariffs and price hikes is expected to affect consumer behavior, particularly among households with multiple children who may be more conservative with their holiday spending [12][13]

Households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 are trading down, cutting back and feeling increasingly strapped, while high earners keep on spending https://t.co/yqyYEM7YLl ...

Market Trends - Food delivery platforms are engaged in a fierce price war, offering coffees for 14 cents and meals for 50 cents [1] - Restaurants and tea chains are suffering from declining foot traffic due to the price war [1]

Wealthy consumers continue to account for a growing share of US consumer spending https://t.co/7S0Yqobzex ...

Joe, I am gonna put something on the table and you tell me what it is. Go on. All right.Here I go. This is a corrugated, I believe, cardboard box. The idea of the box as a macroeconomic indicator. I do see people talking about this idea of boxes as a leading indicator every once in a while.It is unconventional, but some people do it. How valuable are box shipments or tracking the box industry in terms of trying to figure out what's going on with the consumer. Very important for the consumer.About 50% of box ...