Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve's minutes from its September 16th to 17th meeting revealed that almost all participants supported a 0.25% (quarter point) cut at the meeting [1] - A few participants believed there was merit in keeping the federal funds rate unchanged [2] - Most participants judged that it would likely be appropriate to ease policy further over the course of the year [5] - Financial conditions suggested monetary policy may not be particularly restrictive, suggesting a cautious path ahead [5] Economic Outlook & Concerns - Hawks noted progress towards the Fed's 2% inflation target had stalled, raising the risks of inflation expectations rising [3] - Officials indicated their outlooks for the labor market were uncertain and they viewed downside risks to employment as having increased [4] - Indicators cited included low hiring and firing rates, concentrated job gains in a small number of sectors, and increases in unemployment for groups traditionally sensitive to a weakening economy [4] - Economists are pointing to inflation figures and suggesting the worst of the tariff passed through into inflation and prices is yet to come [7] - Others are still concerned about the weakening of the labor market and the idea that that suggests a weakening of the economy ahead [7] Balance Sheet Considerations - Market participants are suggesting that reserves are at the borderline for whether or not there's enough available [10] - A 0.01% (one basis point) jump in the effective Fed funds rate recently was seen by some as a sign that this is coming [10] - Participants felt reserves continued to appear abundant, and no changes were suggested [5][11]

Core Insights - Broader equity markets are reaching record highs despite a government shutdown and inflation concerns, with investors expecting the shutdown to be brief and anticipating interest rate cuts by the Fed in 2025 due to weak labor market conditions [1][8] Investment Strategies - Investors are looking to capitalize on the upward movement of stocks by creating portfolios that ensure healthy returns, although the abundance of stocks makes this challenging [2] - Following broker advice is suggested as a strategy, with broker-favored stocks such as Bread Financial (BFH), Delek US Holdings (DK), American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Advance Auto Parts (AAP), and Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM) recommended for monitoring [3][8] Stock Screening Methodology - A screening process has been developed to identify stocks based on improving broker recommendations and upward revisions in earnings estimates over the past four weeks, incorporating the price/sales ratio as a valuation metric [4][5] - Screening parameters include: - Top 75 companies with net upgrades in broker ratings over the last four weeks - Top 10 stocks with earnings estimate revisions for the upcoming quarter - Bottom 10% of stocks based on price-to-sales ratio [5][6] Featured Stocks - **Bread Financial (BFH)**: Benefits from data-driven marketing strategies and solid receivables growth in Card Services, with a Zacks Rank of 3 and an average earnings beat of 32% [7][8] - **Delek US Holdings (DK)**: Has a competitive edge in the oil and gas sector due to extensive downstream operations, with a Zacks Rank of 3 and an average earnings beat of 16.1% [9] - **American Eagle Outfitters (AEO)**: Focused on cost-reduction and brand progress, with strategic initiatives aimed at long-term growth and a Zacks Rank of 3 [10][11] - **Advance Auto Parts (AAP)**: Completed a store footprint optimization program and plans to open over 100 new stores, with a Zacks Rank of 3 [11] - **Archer Daniels Midland Company (ADM)**: Focused on global trends and investing in technological capabilities, with a Zacks Rank of 3 and an average earnings beat of 0.05% [12][13]

Welcome back to Market on Close. I'm Sam Bartis on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange and I'm pleased to say I am joined by Peter Tutman who is the senior floor broker at Trademass. Thank you so much for joining me.Peter, what did you make of the day. I mean, we can still claim that it was a record, but it just didn't end like one. >> You know what.Look, I mean, a little bit of red on the screen. You know, look, we've had maybe four days that have been the slightest bit of a shallow selloff, if you'd ...

Core Viewpoint - Hedge fund billionaire Paul Tudor Jones warns that the financial markets in 2025 may be on the brink of a significant downturn, drawing parallels to the tech boom of 1999, but suggesting that the current environment could be even more volatile [1][2][3] Market Behavior - Jones emphasizes that the current investment climate mirrors the conditions leading up to the 2000 dot-com bust, with investor behavior reflecting a similar pattern of exuberance [2][3] - He notes that the greatest price appreciation typically occurs in the 12 months preceding a market peak, indicating that investors face a timing challenge [5] Economic Context - The Federal Reserve's potential for multiple interest rate cuts is highlighted as a significant factor, with the real interest rate approaching zero, creating incentives for investment [6] - Jones contrasts the current fiscal situation, with a 6% budget deficit, against the 1999 budget surplus, suggesting that the current fiscal and monetary combination is unprecedented [6] Asset Class Concerns - Jones identifies sovereign debt as the "biggest bubble," driven by global deficits and an easing monetary cycle [7] - He expresses concern over the interconnected financing in the AI sector, indicating a level of nervousness about the sustainability of such arrangements [8] Market Outlook - The end of the year is seen as a critical period for market performance, with institutional investors marking their positions [9][10] - Jones warns that while the current market conditions may lead to explosive gains, the potential for a sudden downturn remains, echoing historical patterns [12]

Core Insights - Ongoing debates among elected officials regarding the budget on Capitol Hill may lead to further interest rate cuts [1] Group 1 - The current market dynamics suggest that fixed income investors might consider repositioning their portfolios in response to potential interest rate changes [1]

Let's continue with the impact of the shutdown on the economy. Joining us here at Post9 this morning is Robert Kaplan, Goldman Sachs vice chairman, management committee member, and former Dallas Fed president, of course. Rob, it's good to have you in.Thanks for joining us. I mean, is the shutdown any competition for this wave of tech investment that the market's entranced with. Uh, not for the time being.I mean, on the margin, it it will mean the economy is a little slower than it might have been. Uh but I ...

Key TakeawaysThe World Bank has increased its China 2025 GDP forecast to 4.8%, signaling optimism for the near term before an anticipated slowdown next year.Jefferies has downgraded Dollar Tree Inc. (DLTR) to "Underperform" from "Hold," significantly cutting its target price to $70 from $110.Zurich Insurance (ZURN) announced it will not tender its stake in Sabadell (SAB) amidst a tender offer.Canada's economy is experiencing a slowdown, with weaker-than-expected Q2 GDP and a fragile housing sector, potentia ...

Market Sentiment - Australia's consumer confidence declined to a six-month low [1] - Renewed doubts emerged regarding future interest rate cuts due to recent inflation strength [1]

It's time now for the big picture. Let's welcome in the team from Charles Schwab. Very pleased to say I'm joined by Lisanne Saunders who is the chief investment strategist Charles Schwab and Cooper Howard director and fixed income strategist Schwab Center for Financial Research.What a brilliant day to have both of you on. Lisanne, let's start with you that big story AMD and OpenAI. I suppose my question as we look back at the week that was and the global chip rally that we have witnessed off the back of the ...

Market Trends & Expectations - Swaps traders are reducing bets on Turkish interest-rate cuts for the rest of the year [1] - Increased price growth is casting doubt on the central bank's inflation target [1]