The prospect of interest rate cuts this month and through the rest of the year is elevating prices for gold, but silver is also benefiting. The precious/industrial metal crossed the $40 price mark in the first week of September, which it hasn't done since 2011. Silver is also reaping the benefits of a move into safe haven assets as market uncertainty continues to loom over the capital markets. Stubborn and sticky inflation hints that the economy is still running hot. That also helps silver, since it can mov ...

The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today is down -0.15%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) is down -0.36%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) is down -0.10%.  September E-mini S&P futures (ESU25) are down -0.23%, and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU25) are down -0.16%. Stock indexes gave up early gains today and turned lower as the 2-day FOMC meeting began.  The markets are expecting that the Fed will cut interest rates at Wednesday’s conclusion of the 2-day FOMC meeting.  However, the S&P 5 ...

Core Viewpoint - PIMCO suggests that the Federal Reserve should halt the reduction of its mortgage holdings to support the U.S. housing market, as the current approach has led to elevated mortgage rates and wide mortgage spreads [1][2]. Group 1: Mortgage Market Conditions - Mortgage spreads have remained "unusually wide," approximately 230 basis points, contributing to a high average mortgage rate of 6.35% for 30-year loans [2][6]. - The Fed's quantitative tightening has involved shedding mortgage bond holdings since 2022, impacting the housing market negatively [1][2]. Group 2: Proposed Solutions - Reinvesting the proceeds from mortgage-backed securities (MBS) roll-off, averaging $18 billion monthly, could lower mortgage rates by 20 to 30 basis points, equating to the effect of a 100-basis point cut in the federal funds rate [3][4]. - An alternative strategy includes both reinvesting the MBS roll-off and selling $20 billion to $30 billion in MBS, potentially leading to a 40 to 50 basis point reduction in mortgage rates [5]. Group 3: Future Outlook - If the Fed maintains its current strategy, mortgage rates are expected to remain high through 2026, limiting homeownership to wealthier individuals [6].

Core Insights - U.S. retail sales increased more than expected in August, driven by consumer spending across various goods and dining out, despite concerns over a weakening labor market and rising prices due to tariffs [1][2][3] Retail Sales Performance - Retail sales rose by 0.6% in August, following an upwardly revised 0.6% increase in July, surpassing economists' expectations of a 0.2% rise [4] - Year-over-year, retail sales increased by 5.0%, indicating strong consumer demand [5] - Adjusted for inflation, monthly sales growth was estimated at only 0.2% [5] Sector-Specific Trends - Sales at auto dealerships increased by 0.5%, reflecting higher prices despite a decline in units sold [5] - Clothing store sales advanced by 1.0%, while sales at sporting goods, hobby, musical instrument, and book stores rose by 0.8% [5] - Online sales surged by 2.0%, following a 0.6% increase in July, suggesting a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [6] Economic Context - The increase in retail sales underscores the economy's resilience amid challenges, leading economists to upgrade GDP estimates for the third quarter [3] - The Federal Reserve's primary concern remains the softening labor market, but positive retail data may influence a cautious approach to interest rate cuts [4][6]

Core Insights - The Federal Reserve has maintained interest rates at 4.25%–4.5% since December 2024, with speculation about potential rate cuts in 2025, while equity markets are performing well due to economic growth [1] Factors to Consider for Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Berkshire Hathaway is a diversified conglomerate with over 90 subsidiaries across various industries, primarily in insurance, which accounts for about 25% of total revenues [2][5] - The company generates significant earnings from energy, transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods, providing steady cash flows and resilience against sector-specific volatility [3] - Berkshire follows a disciplined investment strategy led by Warren Buffett, focusing on undervalued assets with long-term potential, with major investments in companies like Coca-Cola and Apple [4] - The insurance float has grown from approximately $114 billion in 2017 to $174 billion by Q2 2025, providing low-cost capital for investments [5] - With over $100 billion in cash reserves and minimal debt, Berkshire's balance sheet reflects strong financial strength [6] - The return on equity for Berkshire is 7%, slightly below the industry average of 7.7%, but shares have gained 9% year-to-date, outperforming the industry's 8.2% increase [7] Factors to Consider for BlackRock (BLK) - BlackRock is a leading investment management firm with $11.6 trillion in assets under management (AUM) as of December 31, 2024, and offers technology services through its Aladdin platform [8] - The company is expanding its private markets platform, aiming to raise $400 billion by 2030, which is a rapidly growing sector in global finance [9] - BlackRock's return on equity is 15.5%, significantly higher than the industry average of 9.9%, and shares have gained 9.6% year-to-date [10][11] Estimates for BRK.B and BLK - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for BRK.B's 2025 revenues indicates a 4.8% year-over-year increase, while EPS is expected to decrease by 7.6% [12] - For BLK, the 2025 revenue estimate suggests a 15% year-over-year increase, with EPS expected to decrease by 9.1% [14] Valuation Metrics - Berkshire is trading at a price-to-book multiple of 1.59, above its five-year median of 1.41 [14] - BlackRock's price-to-book multiple is at 3.53, also above its five-year median of 3.0 [14] Conclusion - Berkshire Hathaway is recognized for its diversified portfolio and strong management under Warren Buffett, while BlackRock is positioned for growth through its substantial AUM and expansion strategies [17][18]

Our next guest has been calling for 100 basis points of cuts this year for months, long before we saw a downturn in the official jobs data. So what is he looking for this week and how should investors position. With us is Barry Knap, Ironside's macroeconomics director of research.Barry, it's great to see you. Good to see you again, Mike. So it's it's an interesting take that you have here that in other words, 100 basis points is warranted.I guess you would also say perhaps overdue. Uh, at the same time, we' ...

Gold (GC=F) futures opened at $3,677.70 per ounce on Friday, up 0.9% from Thursday’s close of $3,643.70. The gold price has remained above $3,600 since September 9. Gold investors largely expect two additional interest rate cuts from the Fed this year, based on the policymaking committee’s projections. Rate reductions and ongoing concerns over the Fed’s independence could extend gold’s pricing strength. On Thursday, President Trump asked the Supreme Court to uphold his firing of Fed Governor Lisa Cook, wh ...

Market Overview - Asian shares exhibited mixed trading patterns, with Hong Kong's Hang Seng increasing by 0.1% to 26,421.63, while the Shanghai Composite decreased by 0.1% to 3,866.37, amid concerns regarding China's economic performance [1] - The S&P 500 on Wall Street slightly declined by less than 0.1% from its all-time high, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 273 points (0.6%), and the Nasdaq composite rose by 0.4% [4] Economic Indicators - China's economy showed signs of continued decline in August, with key activity readings falling short of market expectations. Retail sales rose by only 3.4%, marking a 12-month low, down from 5.7% in July and 6.8% in June [2] - Analysts suggest that the slowdown in China's economy warrants additional short-term stimulus efforts to bolster growth [2] Trade and Tariff Impact - The shift in economic dynamics is evident as Beijing's reliance on exports has diminished due to U.S. tariffs disrupting supply chains, which has contributed to the economic slowdown [3] Bond and Energy Markets - In the bond market, the yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.06% from 4.01%, indicating a recovery from earlier declines [5] - In energy trading, U.S. crude oil prices increased by 37 cents to $63.06 per barrel, while Brent crude rose by 36 cents to $67.35 per barrel [5] Currency Trading - The U.S. dollar slightly appreciated to 147.67 Japanese yen from 147.65 yen, while the euro remained stable at $1.1732 [6]

Group 1 - Wall Street indexes were influenced by expectations of the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts, with markets pricing odds of a 25-basis-point rate cut next week [3] - All three major indices closed in positive territory, indicating a strong market response to the anticipated rate cut [3] - The Nasdaq Composite was among the indices that showed significant gains during this period [3]

Core Viewpoint - Wall Street is anticipating a quarter-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, with some hoping for a half-point cut, following recent inflation data showing a drop in wholesale prices and a significant rise in consumer prices [1][2][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Rate Decision - The final inflation data before the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting indicates a surprise drop in annual wholesale prices, while consumer prices have seen their largest annual increase since January [1]. - Investors are largely expecting at least a quarter-point rate cut, with discussions around the potential for a half-point cut [2][3]. - The Federal Reserve is likely to implement a 25 basis points cut at the next meeting, with future intentions indicated in a dot plot for subsequent meetings [3][4]. Economic Context - The current economic landscape includes weak job data and revisions, which support the case for a rate cut [3]. - If the Federal Reserve suggests two more rate cuts, Wall Street anticipates an additional 25 basis points cut in October and another in December, totaling a 75 basis points reduction by year-end [4]. Federal Reserve Leadership - James Bullard, a candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, confirms discussions with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant regarding his candidacy [5][6]. - There are criticisms regarding the timing of rate cuts, with some arguing that the Federal Reserve was slow to respond to inflation surges in 2021, 2022, and 2023 [7][8][9]. - The Trump administration's attempt to remove Fed Governor Lisa Cook has raised questions about the independence of the Federal Reserve, with legal proceedings ongoing [11][12][13]. Federal Reserve Independence - The importance of the Federal Reserve's independence from political influence is emphasized, with a call for clear definitions regarding the roles and protections of committee members [12][14][15]. - Maintaining the Federal Reserve's operational effectiveness and independence is deemed essential for sound monetary policy [15][16].