The frozen pipelines of private equity dealmaking are starting to thaw, according to one of Wall Street’s top finance chiefs https://t.co/JlK4jsShiD ...

RT blockgraze (@blockgraze)private equity has less than nothing to do with trading your personal accountalso nobody is more useless than a mid level private equity associate trying to help a portfolio company ...

Core Insights - America is experiencing a retirement crisis, with 70% of retirees concerned about insufficient savings and 30% considering returning to work due to dwindling funds [1] Group 1: Retirement Concerns - A significant portion of retirees, 70%, express worries about their financial readiness for retirement, indicating a need for better savings strategies [1] - The crisis is prompting 30% of retirees to contemplate re-entering the workforce, highlighting the urgency of addressing retirement savings [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - An executive order by President Trump aims to enhance access to private markets for savers through 401(k) plans, allowing everyday investors to benefit from asset classes traditionally reserved for wealthy individuals [2] - A report from the American Investment Council reveals that private equity consistently outperforms the broader stock market and other investment categories over the long term, making it a valuable option for investors [3] Group 3: Performance of Private Equity - Analysis shows that private equity outperforms all major asset classes over a 10-year period, exceeding the S&P 500 by 3%, which is crucial for achieving retirement goals for middle-class investors [4] - For example, a $25,000 investment in private equity over 10 years could yield approximately $111,720, compared to $85,618 from the stock market, illustrating a significant difference of over $26,000 [5] Group 4: Long-Term Investment Perspective - Media coverage often emphasizes short-term performance, neglecting the long-term benefits of private equity, which is aligned with the investment goals of most everyday investors [6] - Despite recent strong performance in the stock market, private equity remains focused on long-term returns, which are significantly higher when viewed over extended periods [6]

Market Bubble & Potential Weakness - The market may experience pressure as wealth is sold to provide necessary funds, regardless of a bubble [1] - Dislocations are expected in private equity and venture capital due to firms needing to support existing positions that may no longer be feasible [3] - Weakness may emerge in SAS and other software companies if their functions are replaced by AI or other technologies [4] - Issues have already surfaced in the private credit space [4] Earnings Growth & Market Safety - Strong double-digit earnings growth could safeguard the market [4] - The peak impact of physical and monetary stimulus from the previous year is expected to continue through the end of next year, potentially driving double-digit earnings growth into 2026 and beyond [4] - Continued strong tailwinds behind topline and double-digit earnings growth could mitigate the impact of dislocations [5] - The firm has a bullish S&P price target of 7,500, indicating confidence in strong earnings [6] Consumer & Consumption Dynamics - The firm is bullish on consumption but mixed on the consumer [7] - The top 10% of earners account for 50% of consumption [8] - The bottom third of earners account for only 15% of consumption [9] Inflation & Political Issues - Inflation is anticipated to be more of a political issue than an economic one in 2026 [9][11] - The affordability crisis will be intertwined with inflation and will be a central issue as the midterms approach [11] - The affordability crisis affects a plurality of people, particularly the bottom half of earners, making it a key political concern [12]

Industry Overview & Challenges - US Census Bureau data indicates over half of US businesses are owned by individuals aged 55 and older, signaling a wave of transitions [4] - Approximately 55 million small family-owned businesses are vital to the US economy, employing a significant portion of the workforce [5] - A US bank survey reveals only 50% of 1,000 small businesses interviewed have a succession plan in place, highlighting a lack of preparation for transitions [7] - Rising generations often prefer inheriting cash from business sales rather than running the family business, potentially leading to job losses and community disruption [6][7] Succession & Transition Strategies - Succession planning should start earlier, regardless of business size, and owners should seek professional advice instead of relying solely on friends [9][10] - Owners should explore options beyond selling, such as becoming owner-investors, to maintain control and legacy [10][27] - Private equity firms offer options for owners to sell while remaining involved, preserving local enterprise aspects [15] Private Equity & Consolidation - Soundcore focuses on recession-resistant businesses, holding them for an average of five years [21] - Soundcore's strategy involves buying small businesses at lower multiples (averaging 59 times EBITDA) compared to typical private equity firms (12-20+ times EBITDA), indicating less competition in this segment [19][20] - The rise of large consolidators may lead to a shift from local, personality-based businesses to standardized, less community-focused experiences [25] Wealth Transfer & Business Value - Baby boomer and older households are expected to pass down approximately $100 trillion in wealth over the next 25 years [11] - Family-owned businesses constitute roughly 18% of their net worth, representing an estimated $18 trillion in business value potentially changing hands by 2048 [12] - A founder's departure can decrease business value if they control key local relationships [14]

wow!MaxBid24 (@MaxBid24):@Evan_ss6 Most of you wouldn’t make it past the first-round interview at a major investment bank, let alone PE or a hedge fund.You punted some crypto in a bull market, made a bag, and now think you’re a genius. You were mostly lucky. ...

South African private equity firms and lenders will invest $600 million in debt and equity on a dry port in the Democratic Republic of Congo https://t.co/4jNTSo21nh ...

Core Insights - The M&A market is experiencing a dichotomy with a significant increase in deal value but stagnant overall deal volume as 2025 approaches [2][5] Group 1: Deal Value and Volume - U.S. deal value surged to $598 billion in the third quarter, marking a 56% increase from the previous quarter and the highest level in nearly four years [3] - Despite the rise in deal value, overall deal volume has remained flat, indicating a split market where large strategic and sponsor-backed deals are thriving while midmarket activity is sluggish [5] Group 2: Dealmaker Sentiment - A majority of private equity (90%) and corporate respondents (80%) anticipate increasing their deal closures in the next 12 months, with expectations for total deal value to rise as well [6] - However, optimism has tempered compared to the previous year, with fewer respondents expecting a significant increase in deal volume, indicating a shift towards more modest gains [7] Group 3: Economic Context - Deal confidence is rising amidst mixed macroeconomic signals, with recent Federal Reserve rate cuts improving financing conditions, potentially bolstering M&A activity [9]

If the key driver of success in a private equity holding is great managers incentivized with skin in the game, that seems a good place to start https://t.co/e4IVk56KJs ...

Market Overview & Strategy - Morgan Stanley Private Wealth Management suggests scaling back on big cap technology, not removing it entirely, due to run-ups and performance issues [2][3][5] - The firm advocates for a more equal-weighted approach, diversifying into the 493 stocks in the S&P 500 beyond the top seven [4][5] - The firm favors basic, generic companies that can leverage AI for growth, rather than focusing solely on AI companies [7] Private Markets & Investment Opportunities - The firm is increasing client involvement in private markets, including private equity, private credit, and private infrastructure, to capture wealth creation happening before companies go public [8][9][10][11] - Private infrastructure investments now include data centers and cell towers, reflecting evolving opportunities [11][12] Portfolio Allocation & Risk Management - Traditional 60/40 (equity/fixed income) portfolio allocations are evolving, with a potential shift towards 55% in equities and increased allocation to alternatives [12][13] - The firm views municipal bonds as potentially strong investments in the first quarter of next year [13][14] - Clients are showing curiosity and interest in crypto, primarily through ETFs, but are still in the early stages of understanding [14]