circle earns minimum 5% on $61.6B in user deposits parked in treasuries. usdc holders get 0%.their ipo was 25x oversubscribed and stock is up 589% because 97% of their revenue comes from literally just parking your money in risk-free government bonds.even traditional banks give you something on savings accounts. @wizardofsoho nailed it: "circle gives you stables but doesn't give you any of the yield they get by taking your dollars"classic wall street move. let the crypto guys buy our bags and don't give the ...

Market Trends & Investment Strategies - The discussion revolves around investment strategies concerning treasuries, particularly the 20-year Bond ETF (TLT), and European bonds [1] - The firm expresses reservations about the back end of the yield curve, considering alternatives like ECB rate cuts or seeking opportunities at the long end [2] - Tactical buying of the long end of the yield curve is considered around quarter-end [2] - Long-duration assets can be helpful if geopolitical risks resurface or inflation declines [5] - Currently, equities, especially growth equities with a 19% ROE, are favored over long-duration bonds due to inflation concerns and tariff issues [5][6] Duration & Hedging - Duration is viewed as no longer a reliable hedge [4] - TLT is considered an efficient vehicle for gaining duration when needed, although not currently favored [3] Economic Factors - Inflation expectations and potential tariff problems are key themes influencing market movements [5]

Sentiment Analysis - The tweet implies a contrast between broad, long-term forecasting and specific, short-term financial trading skills [1] - The tweet suggests that expertise in one area (macro forecasting) doesn't necessarily translate to expertise in another (treasury trading) [1] Financial Implication - The tweet questions the practical value of long-term forecasting in the context of short-term financial markets [1]

We've got Thomas Hayes, Great Hill Capital Chairman and Managing Member here. So, as we think about the SLR, of course, as we're hearing from Fed Chair Jal, who was commenting on it during his two-day stint on Capitol Hill, both discussing with the House Financial Services Committee and then additionally with uh the Senate yesterday here, this question came up. The SLR was supposed to act as a backs stop to riskbased capital requirements.Too often, the SLR acts as a binding requirement for US banks. They we ...

Fed Policy & Interest Rates - The CNBC Fed survey projects the Fed funds rate to be at 389% by the end of the year [1] - The base case expectation is that the Fed will cut rates one to two times this year, aligning with the Fed's communication [2] - The Fed's policy statement is expected to remain unchanged, with any news potentially emerging from the statement of economic projections [3] - The Fed is expected to maintain its current stance, awaiting further data to clarify inflation expectations [7] Economic Uncertainty & Geopolitical Factors - There's increased uncertainty due to the Middle East situation, reciprocal tariffs, and unclear US-China relations [4][5] - Geopolitics is playing a bigger role in inflation expectations [6] - The Fed's tools are limited in addressing changes in trade policy, the political environment, and geopolitical factors [6] US Dollar & Treasury Market - The dollar has shown weakness, with a temporary rebound as a flight to safety [8] - Foreign buyers have reduced their holdings of US Treasuries, decreasing from 50% to 30% over the past decade [8] - Dollar depreciation is anticipated to continue marginally, with treasury market volatility expected, especially in the long end [13] Investor Sentiment & Market Dynamics - Investors, including sophisticated institutional investors, are questioning their geographic allocation to US assets [10] - The depth and liquidity of US markets, including treasuries, the dollar, and private assets, remain robust [11] - There is still no alternative to the US dollar [12] - A transition is occurring that matters for flows and valuations, but it is marginal from a geopolitical perspective at the moment [12]

All right, let's start with the Fed, but we've got a lot of ground to cover. Um, what are your expectations when it comes to the outlook. I think we all know there's not going to be a cut, but when we're talking about the outlook, what are you expecting and how do you see that impacting the markets in the near term.Yeah, it's a good question. I think um the focus will really be on the number of uh cuts that going to be pencileled in. Our expectation is going to be that it's going to be around two cuts still ...

Inflation & Stagflation - One-year inflation dropped significantly from 66% to 51% [1] - Middle East tensions may lead to stagflationary pressures, raising concerns about the extent of this impact [1][2] US Treasury Market - The world is losing confidence in the sovereign side of the US, impacting safe-haven flows into the Treasury market [2] - Investors are distinguishing between the sovereign side and the corporate side of the US, leading to a less pronounced equity sell-off [3] - Investors are gradually reducing US bond exposure, with central banks increasing gold reserves as an alternative [4][5] - Treasury yields have become less predictable, decoupling from traditional correlations [7] Global Economic Order - The global order, which relied on the US, is experiencing a gradual fragmentation [8] - The US is facing policy-induced volatility, which is unusual for the world's most predictable player [9][10] - Market implied probability of recession in the US has fluctuated significantly, from below 10% to over 70% and back below 30%, raising concerns about economic stability [10]

Market Trends & Investment Opportunities - The market is experiencing a paradigm shift where the long bond is no longer considered a flight to quality asset, with gold emerging as the preferred safe haven [2] - Gold has surged from $1,800 per ounce to over $2,000 per ounce, indicating strong investor interest [2] - Central banks are accumulating gold, reversing a decade-long trend of selling, suggesting a change in their investment strategy [3] - Gold is now viewed as a legitimate asset class, attracting a broader range of investors beyond survivalists and speculators [3] Monetary Policy & Fixed Income - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts in September 2023 led to a significant increase of 100 basis points in the yield of the 30-year Treasury bond [1] - The speaker anticipates this trend may continue, suggesting a potential inverse relationship between rate cuts and long-term Treasury yields [1] Central Bank Behavior - Central banks previously sold gold at prices as low as $300-$400 and are now buying it back at around $3,000, highlighting their poor long-term investment decisions [4]