Rieder说："总会有那么一个时刻，我们会想要持有一定久期的资产。但我认为这并非当下市场的主流 趋势。" 由于对特朗普总统的贸易政策以及美国政府未来支出计划的不确定性，2025年两类资产的价格都出现了 波动。今年，标普500指数的总回报率已上涨近6%，以成长型科技股为代表的股票推动了从4月低点的 强劲反弹，使该指数创下历史新高。与此同时，规模达490亿美元的iShares20年期美国国债ETF(TLT)今 年迄今的总回报率约为2%。 Rieder表示，随着通胀率和利率的下降，长期债券最终会变得具有吸引力。但目前而言，他已做好了预 期收益率曲线变陡的准备——即押注较长期债券的表现会逊于较短期债券。今年这种交易颇为流行，部 分原因在于人们担心美国联邦赤字的不断扩大将促使债券发行量增加。 贝莱德全球固定收益业务首席投资官(CIO)Rick Rieder认为，当前美国股市存在更多的投资机会，而美 国国债曲线的长期端则不然。Rieder表示，从收益角度来看，短期债券更具吸引力。但他也指出，长期 债券与股市波动的关联性日益增强，已不再能起到对冲风险的作用。在他看来，在这种背景下，股票的 预期回报率使其成为投资组合中更具 ...

IF I BUY PERIPHERALS. NONE INVESTMENT CREDIT REDUCED. IT IS NOT INCREMENTALLY BENEFICIAL.ERIC: WE TALK ABOUT TREASURIES AND WE TALK MORE ABOUT EUROPE ON THE SHORT END OF THE CURVE. I FEEL LIKE TLT, THE 20-YEAR BOND ETF, IS FOR PEOPLE WHO LIKE TO OVERTHINK THINGS. MEMBERS WILL SAY THIS, FED WILL DO THIS, YOU ARE DOING 3D CHESS. WHY IS IT DOING WHAT ALL OF THIS MONEY THINK THAT YOU DO.RICK: LISTEN, I'M NOT A BIG FAN OF THE BACK END OF THE YIELD CURVE. AT THE END OF THE DAY WHAT WE GOT IN YIELDS IN EUROPE, WHY ...

"市场正在经历转型阶段，"高盛宏观交易主管保罗·斯基亚文（Paolo Schiavine）指出，这种转变不仅体 现在价格波动上，更源于宏观经济功能的深层演变。 斯基亚文表示，美联储仍是市场的"减震器"。尽管通胀数据可能持续高企，但这未必能阻止宽松周期的 启动。美国需要延长政策周期的美联储，而不仅是盯着CPI数据的美联储。本周五的非农就业数据或成 关键催化剂，高盛预测新增8.5万人，低于市场预期的11.3万人。 美联储"看跌期权"消失 债券市场动荡 对等关税和高估值亦是焦点，但斯基亚文认为这些不足以成为做空理由："作为趋势追随者，我关注信 号但绝不盲从——除非价格予以确认。" 若寻找牛市线索，美国或将步入流动性驱动周期，而欧洲则依赖财政刺激。"我始终更愿做多超额流动 性，而非政府资产负债表——这就是为何押注美国而非欧洲。"欧洲央行和英国央行终将追随美联储进 一步宽松，终端利率在此无关紧要。 随着非农数据临近，市场流动性正取代基本面成为主导力量。市场已成为政策工具，而决策者深谙流动 性传导对资产价格的支配作用。这并非单纯的通胀或增长叙事，而是关乎市场身处何种机制，以及流动 性与波动率如何互动。 多数机构客户目前对 ...

花旗速递 --- Citi Velocity CitiPoint Asia: Concern Over The US Fiscal Debt - Looking For Evidence Of Regime Change 花旗亚洲观点：对美国财政债务的担忧寻找政权更迭的迹象 Markets 市 场 Mohammed Apabhai 穆罕默德·阿 帕拜 Jun 19, 2025 6:52AM CST 2025 年 6 ⽉ 19 ⽇ 上午 6:52 CST Asia Trading Strategies 亚洲交易策略 NOT A PRODUCT OF CITI RESEARCH ‒ INTENDED FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS ONLY. ⾮花旗研究产品仅供机构客⼾使⽤。 MACRO: CONCERN OVER THE US FISCAL DEBT - LOOKING FOR EVIDENCE OF REGIME CHANGE 宏观：对美国财政债务的担忧寻找体制变⾰的迹象 In our recent two-week marketing trip across Europe one que ...

Final trade time. Steve Reddit. It's the RNI boxer.It has not been performing well. I think it's turned to corn. Karen.Yeah. Well, if you went home long, same as buying it here. Yell go Liberty tonight. Go Liberty.Dan, bounce back for the Liberty. TLT. Uh, the E and my tube.Are you familiar with that, Melissa. That would be I'm not I'm not. That would be EQT. ...

美债策略周报 2025.6.9-2025.6.15 分析师： 曹潮 中央编号： BVH841 联系电话： 852-96581360 邮箱： caochao@cnzsqh.hk 1 美债市场策略周报 - 投资要点 美债市场表现回顾： 5月CPI和PPI数据全面弱于预期，带动10Y美债一度下行超15个bps；但周五中东地缘冲突升温带动油 价大幅上行，导致美债利率出现"V"型反转，10Y美债周内累计下行10.7个bps。 美债市场基本面、货币政策和资金面： 2 基本面与货币政策：5月CPI同比2.4%，核心CPI环比降至0.13%，CPI环比降至0.08%；分项来看，核 心商品，住房、超级核心CPI均回落，PPI中进入PCE的机票、投资组合、医疗保健等分项同样未升温， 反应关税对通胀带来的通胀上行压力有限。货币政策方面，由于下周召开FOMC会议，美联储官员进入 静默期，没有对货币政策发表意见。 流动性和供需：准备金回升超600亿美元至3.43万亿，ON RRP用量回升，SOFR利率周内中枢环比回 落3个bps；30年期和10年期Swap spread环比回升超1个bps，一级交易商美债净持仓连续3周回升。 美债市场 ...

Core Insights - Soitec and Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corporation (PSMC) have announced a strategic collaboration to develop ultra-thin Transistor Layer Transfer (TLT) technology for advanced 3D chip stacking [1][2] - The collaboration aims to enhance semiconductor designs, making chips more powerful, compact, and energy-efficient, with applications in smartphones, AI devices, and autonomous driving systems [3][4] Company Overview - Soitec is a leader in innovative semiconductor materials, generating sales of €0.9 billion in fiscal year 2024-2025 and holding over 4,000 patents [8] - PSMC is the seventh-largest pure-play foundry globally, with a production capacity of over 2.1 million 12-inch equivalent wafers annually and a new fab in Taiwan with a planned capacity of 1.2 million wafers [11] Technology Details - The TLT technology enables the stacking of multiple transistor layers vertically, supporting advanced 3D transistor architectures and optimizing power performance [5][6] - Soitec's TLT substrate utilizes Smart Cut™ technology and infrared laser release processing, allowing for ultra-thin semiconductor layers ranging from 5nm to 1µm [6] Collaboration Impact - The partnership reflects a commitment to advancing 3D integration and meeting the industry's demand for faster, more energy-efficient chips [4][7] - The collaboration builds on existing France-Taiwan initiatives in AI and semiconductor technologies, enhancing global cooperation in the sector [7]

Group 1 - The divergence between stock prices and bond prices indicates differing market outlooks, with stocks reflecting optimism and bonds showing pessimism about the economy [7][27][28] - The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond Fund (TLT) has decreased by 8% over the past six weeks, while the S&P 500 has increased significantly, suggesting a potential misalignment in market expectations [3][14] - The U.S. national debt is approaching $37 trillion, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123%, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and potential economic collapse [15][16][18] Group 2 - The "Bond Vigilantes" are reacting to perceived irresponsible fiscal policies, particularly the proposed $3.8 trillion budget bill by the Trump Administration, which could exacerbate the national debt [10][12][13] - The Federal Reserve is likely to maintain its current stance on interest rates due to ongoing economic uncertainty and inflation concerns, influenced by trade policies and tariffs [25][26] - The stock market may present opportunities despite the debt concerns, as historical trends show that market performance can thrive even amid rising national debt [20][21][22] Group 3 - The upcoming "Liberation Day 2.0" economic framework under the Trump Administration is expected to favor sectors such as tax, tech, and energy, potentially benefiting specific stocks [32][33] - Companies like Kohl's Corp. are identified as potential losers due to their lack of pricing power and vulnerability to rising input costs from tariffs [34][35] - The market is advised to focus on identifying winners and losers within the context of the new economic policies, rather than adopting a binary view of the stock and bond markets [30][31]

近期美债又"崩了"！目前30年期美债收益率逼近5%大关、10年期美债收益率升破4.5%关口。 报道还称，知名经济学家彼得·希夫也在社媒平台X上表示，10年期美国国债收益率周三已经升至4.53%。长债ETF TLT收于了2023年11月以来的最低点。 更重要的是，美债市场正处于崩溃的边缘。债券义警又回来了，他们不喜欢"美丽大法案"。 据了解，"美丽大法案"是一项全面的预算法案，将减税、移民改革以及一系列国内优先事项合并为一项单一的协调措施。据评估，这项法案将在未来十 年内给美国财政带来3.7万亿美元的赤字，并使年度赤字占GDP的比重超过7%。 国内机构对美债看法也存在一定的分歧。中金公司指出，4月下旬以来美国关税态度有所软化，5月12日中美贸易谈判取得重大进展，提升风险偏好，美 股与美元都明显反弹，但这并没有解决美元美债避险能力下降的问题，如果再次面临负面冲击，美元资产可能仍比较脆弱。此外，特朗普减税政策可能 导致美国债务加速扩张，利空美债，进一步弱化其避险功能。美债前景不确定性较高。 国泰海通固收研究团队则认为，美国具有充足的安全垫机制，短期违约风险不大。美国债务风险被市场高估，经济衰退仍是主要逻辑，当下的环 ...

此刻的瑞士莱蒙湖畔正上演着震撼全球的金融暗战！中美两国代表在日内瓦洲际酒店闭门谈判，这场被外媒称作"21世纪布 雷顿森林时刻"的较量，竟藏着比贸易战凶险百倍的杀机。 ▶ 美债雪球滚到悬崖边 美国财长贝森特带着8.2万亿美元的"催命符"而来——2025年到期美债规模创历史新高，光是利息支出就够造20艘航母！更可 怕的是，全球买家正在集体"出逃"：中国连续8个月减持美债，日本央行狂抛3000亿美元，连沙特都在悄悄用人民币结算石 油。 ▶ 谈判桌上的致命博弈 别看美方代表表面镇定，手里攥着的谈判底牌却暴露了焦虑： 但这些"甜头"背后藏着毒刺——美方核心诉求直指中国增持2000亿美元中长期美债！《华尔街日报》泄密的草案显示，美方 甚至提出用"台湾海峡航行自由承诺"交换中国购买30年期国债。 同意放宽14项对华高科技出口限制 默许中资银行承接中东美元清算业务 暂缓对中国新能源车加征关税 ▶ 人民币的绝地反击时刻 中国谈判团显然有备而来。央行行长易纲甩出三张底牌： ▶ 生死博弈的终极赌注 当贝森特要求中国"展现大国担当"时，中方代表甩出灵魂拷问："去年美军舰11次穿越台海时，怎么不说担当？"这场谈判最 该关注的不是协议文 ...