JUST IN: 🇺🇸 90% chance the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates again this month, according to crypto prediction platform Polymarket. https://t.co/Y2HEIGjKFE ...

🇺🇸 UPDATE: FedWatch shows a 99% probability of rates being cut to 375–400 bps at the October 29, 2025 meeting. https://t.co/ppComqrnDO ...

Group 1: Market Liquidity and Speculation - Liquidity has been a primary driver of financial asset returns, with unprecedented speculative activity due to the Fed's actions since the pandemic [1][4] - The correlation between Ether and SPACs indicates broad speculation driven by easy liquidity conditions rather than fundamental asset performance [2] - Current financial conditions are very easy, allowing companies easy access to capital, as evidenced by historically narrow corporate spreads and the popularity of SPACs [7] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Role - The Fed influences the economy through the banking system, cutting rates to lower the cost of capital and encourage lending when banks restrict lending [5] - Conversely, when lending is excessive, the Fed raises interest rates to slow down the economy [6] - The Fed's recent rate cuts signal potential outcomes, including either a broadening of equity markets or further excess liquidity leading to more speculation [16][17] Group 3: Economic Conditions - The US economy is showing growth above the long-term average, as indicated by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker [10] - Inflation expectations are rising, influenced by tariffs and supply chain disruptions, which are typically inflationary [12][14] - Recent immigration policies are constraining labor supply, potentially leading to rising wages if demand for labor remains strong [14][15] Group 4: Investment Implications - Two potential outcomes from the Fed's rate cuts include a healthy broadening of the market or rampant speculation leading to misallocations within the economy [30] - Bubbles are inherently inflationary, misallocating capital and potentially leading to significant future inflation [18][20] - The current misallocation of capital, such as investments in cryptocurrencies instead of essential infrastructure, could exacerbate inflationary pressures [20]

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers blasted Stephen Miran’s first speech as Federal Reserve governor, saying it failed to provide a proper analytical basis for slashing interest rates https://t.co/1t4wUOJDCK ...

Group 1 - The final reading for S&P Global's manufacturing PMIs for September remains at 52, indicating stability in the manufacturing sector [1] - The mid-month reading for September was also 52, marking the lightest reading since July, which was slightly below 50 [1] - July is noted as the only month this year with a PMI below 50, suggesting a contraction in manufacturing activity [2] Group 2 - ADP reported a decrease of 32,000 jobs, the lightest figure since March 2023, which has influenced interest rates to decline [2] - Interest rates have decreased by six basis points for the 10-year and eight basis points for the 2-year [2]

The conventional wisdom is we shut down after midnight. And I'm assuming you don't see a way around it. What comes after the shutdown.Well, unfortunately, it looks like we are barreling towards a shutdown because Democrats like Hakeem Jeffries and Chuck Schumer have changed their position entirely on keeping the government funded and passing clean cars. Whether it was Joe Biden or Donald Trump, I voted for every single C. R.to keep the government open and funded while we negotiate a final appropriations pac ...

Core Viewpoint - Amazon.com Inc has been a leading tech stock, excelling in e-commerce, cloud computing, and advertising, yet its stock performance has disappointed investors recently [1][2]. Stock Performance - Despite the broader equity market reaching new highs, Amazon's stock has not surpassed its all-time high of $240 from February [2]. - The stock has encountered resistance at the $240 level multiple times over the past nine months, indicating a potential "triple top" pattern, which is a bearish signal [3][4][5]. Technical Analysis - The triple top pattern suggests that buyers are losing confidence at the $240 price point, making it increasingly difficult for the stock to break through this ceiling [4][6]. - The recent inability of Amazon to capitalize on favorable market conditions raises concerns about the sustainability of its bullish momentum [6]. Analyst Ratings - Wells Fargo upgraded Amazon's rating from Equal Weight to Overweight, indicating a stronger commitment to the bullish outlook, especially in light of the stock's struggles to break the $240 barrier [7][9]. - The upgrade is significant as it reflects a high degree of confidence in Amazon's potential to overcome current resistance levels [9]. Growth Drivers - The upgrade from Wells Fargo is based on expectations surrounding Project Rainier, which aims to accelerate growth in Amazon Web Services (AWS) amidst increasing demand for AI workloads [10]. - Amazon's advertising business is also highlighted as one of the fastest-growing segments, alongside its robust e-commerce operations, particularly with the upcoming Prime Day expected to drive significant consumer spending [11][12]. Long-term Outlook - Amazon possesses multiple growth drivers that provide a strong long-term outlook, despite recent stock performance challenges [12]. - The underlying business fundamentals remain solid, suggesting that the stock may soon gain enough momentum to reach new highs [12].

Bond Market Reaction & Fed Policy - The long end of the curve is considered cheap based on valuation metrics, but the front end could also move if economic data weakens due to a prolonged shutdown [2] - The market is pricing in gradual Fed cuts to neutral, but a worsening economy (unemployment rate above 45%) could lead to more aggressive Fed action [2] - An independent Fed is responding to data and aiming to reduce the level of restrictiveness, making bonds attractive [6] - The Fed is expected to cut rates to 3%, which is close to neutral, even without a significant slowdown [8] Auction & Demand - End-user demand for Treasury auctions remains strong, indicating structural positives in the US economy [5] - Structural positives in the US economy, such as AI capex and strong corporate fundamentals, are driving demand for US bonds [6] - People look at 55%-6% in high-quality bonds and they like it [6] Investment Strategy & Risk Hedge - The 5 to 10-year part of the curve is considered a sweet spot, offering a balance between yield and duration risk [3][14][15] - Bonds are still considered a hedge, especially with the Fed likely to cut rates more aggressively [12][13] - Investors may diversify into other assets like gold and cryptocurrency, but US Treasuries remain a safe haven [9][10][11][12] - High-yield market can offer yields higher than 5%-6% without taking on that much duration risk [15]

Mortgage Rate Trends - The average rate on the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage for conforming loans increased to 646% from 634% last week [1] - Mortgage rates haven't moved at all to start this week [4] Refinance Market - Applications to refinance a home loan dropped 21% last week from the previous week [2] - The drop in refies also came even though mortgage rates were 32 basis points higher last week than they were at the same time a year ago [2] - The average loan size for refies dropped substantially because of course higher rates eliminate that incentive for people with the bigger loans [3] Home Purchase Market - Applications for a mortgage to buy a home also fell but just 1% for the week [3] - Applications for a mortgage to buy a home were still 16% higher than the same week one year ago [3] Economic Factors - The expectation was that rates could move more decidedly on Friday when the monthly employment report was set for release [4] - The government shutdown now has all that in limbo [4]

Inflation Trends - Euro-area inflation accelerated in September [1] Monetary Policy Implications - The European Central Bank plans to keep interest rates steady for now [1]