Market Performance - The U.S. stock market showed strong performance last week, with major indices like the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite, and Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 0.82%, 0.84%, and 0.96% respectively [1] - Investor optimism was fueled by advancements in Artificial Intelligence and expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, despite a partial government shutdown creating uncertainties [1] Consumer Confidence and Labor Market - The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for September dropped by 3.6 points to 94.2, marking its lowest level since April, attributed to inflation and a weakening job market [2] - Job openings increased slightly by 19,000 to 7.227 million in August, while hiring decreased by 114,000 to 5.126 million according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey [2] Zacks Research Performance - Amneal Pharmaceuticals saw a stock increase of 29.9% since its Zacks Rank upgrade on July 25, outperforming the S&P 500's 5.5% increase [4][7] - Leidos Holdings experienced a 19.8% return following a Zacks Rank upgrade on July 28, also surpassing the S&P 500's 5.1% increase [5][7] - A hypothetical portfolio of Zacks Rank 1 stocks returned +8.64% in 2025 through September 1, compared to +7.60% for the S&P 500 index [5] Focus List and Model Portfolios - The Zacks Focus List portfolio returned 13.74% in 2025 through August 31, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 10.79% [12] - Intellia Therapeutics gained 85.9% and Shopify returned 38.3% over the past 12 weeks, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 7% increase during the same period [11] Earnings Certain Admiral Portfolio (ECAP) - The ECAP returned +0.20% in Q2 2025, underperforming the S&P 500 index's +10.94% gain [16] - The portfolio aims to minimize capital loss by holding shares of companies with a proven track record of earnings stability over 20+ years [17] Earnings Certain Dividend Portfolio (ECDP) - Johnson & Johnson returned 20.9% and Home Depot increased by 6.3% over the past 12 weeks, benefiting from investor preference for quality dividend stocks amid market volatility [19] - The ECDP returned -3.17% in Q2 2025, compared to the S&P 500 index's +10.94% gain [20] Top 10 Stocks Performance - Goldman Sachs, part of the Zacks Top 10 Stocks for 2025, increased by 38% year-to-date, outperforming the S&P 500 index's 14.2% increase [22] - The Top 10 portfolio has produced a cumulative return of +2,369.7% since 2012, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 index's 522.5% [24]

Economic Indicators and Government Shutdown - The federal government shutdown is likely to delay the release of several economic indicators, including U.S. trade deficit data, weekly initial jobless claims, and wholesale inventories [1][3] - Despite the shutdown, the Federal Reserve is expected to continue its schedule, including the release of meeting minutes and participation from key officials [3][4] Corporate Earnings Reports - Key corporate earnings reports are anticipated from major companies such as Constellation Brands, PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, and Levi Strauss, which could provide insights into the state of the American consumer [5][6][7] - Constellation Brands is expected to report declining sales due to concerns over tariffs and weak demand, while PepsiCo may face challenges from its Frito-Lay division and North American sales [6] - Delta Air Lines has reinstated its outlook and reported better-than-expected results, while Levi Strauss grew revenue in the prior quarter despite tariff pressures [7] Upcoming Events and Consumer Sentiment - Amazon is set to hold its Prime Big Deal Days sales event on October 7-8, which may impact consumer spending trends [7] - The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report and the Fed's consumer credit report are also expected to be released, providing further insights into consumer behavior [4]

On episode LXXII of "In The Know" (October 3, 2025), ARK CEO/CIO Cathie Wood delves into the current economic landscape amidst a government shutdown, highlighting the surprising resilience of the stock market. She discusses significant employment revisions, the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, and the impact of tariffs on inflation. Cathie also explores the potential for a productivity-driven economic boom, the challenges in the housing market, and the evolving role of technology and innovation in shap ...

Group 1: Investor Sentiment and Market Dynamics - Investor sentiment is rising for housing-related stocks due to recent and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with mortgage rates currently at 6.34%, near one-year lows [1] - A more proficient supply and demand dynamic could emerge if homes become more affordable, alleviating pressure on homebuilders who have relied on price cuts and mortgage rate buydowns [2] Group 2: Homebuilder Stocks Performance - Toll Brothers (TOL) has led the surge in homebuilder stocks, experiencing a +20% increase over the last three months, supported by its affluent customer base and industry-leading margins [4][5] - The Zacks Building Products-Home Builders Industry is currently in the bottom 5% of over 240 Zacks industries, indicating that investor enthusiasm may be ahead of schedule for some peers [5] Group 3: Strategic Moves by Key Companies - Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Lennar Corporation (LEN) during Q2, contributing to broader excitement in the housing sector, despite trimming its position in D.R. Horton (DHI) [6] - Rocket Companies (RKT) has distinguished itself among mortgage providers by completing a $14.2 billion all-stock acquisition of Mr. Cooper Group, the largest mortgage servicer in the U.S. [8] - Rocket Companies also acquired Redfin, expanding its reach into the home search market, with its stock soaring +60% in 2025 before pulling back from a 52-week high of $22 [9][10] Group 4: Analyst Ratings and Future Outlook - Zillow Group (ZG) has received analyst upgrades, with price targets raised to over $90 per share, despite currently holding a Zacks Rank 4 (Sell) [13][14] - The overall consensus trend for Zillow shows declining earnings estimate revisions, with shares trading around $74 and up +5% YTD [14]

Economic Indicators - The dollar index (DXY00) fell by -0.12% as the US government shutdown entered its third day, raising concerns about potential negative impacts on GDP growth and the dollar [1] - The September ISM services index dropped -2.0 to a 4-month low of 50.0, which was weaker than the expected 51.7 [3] - The September S&P composite PMI was revised upward by +0.3 to 53.9 from the previously reported 53.6 [2] Federal Reserve Commentary - Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee warned against front-loading too many interest rate cuts, citing rising inflation and deteriorating job numbers [4] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan emphasized the need for caution regarding further rate cuts, noting that inflation is further from the Fed's target than maximum employment goals [4] - Markets are pricing in a 97% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [5] Currency Movements - The EUR/USD rose by +0.22% due to a weaker dollar and supportive comments from ECB Governing Council member Wunsch regarding current policy settings [6] - The euro is supported by central bank divergence, with the ECB seen as largely finished with its rate-cut cycle, while the Fed is expected to cut rates approximately two more times by the end of the year [7]

Economic Overview - The Chicago Fed has introduced new labor market indicators to provide real-time estimates of the unemployment rate, which is currently estimated at 4.3% [3][4]. - The reliance on private sector data and state unemployment claims is acknowledged, but there is concern that as time passes, the accuracy of these estimates may diminish [5][6]. Labor Market Insights - The labor market appears stable based on current indicators, but there is uncertainty regarding future jobless claims due to the lack of official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) amid a government shutdown [7][10]. - The Fed's decision-making process is complicated by the absence of reliable data, which raises questions about the trajectory of interest rates [9][10]. Inflation and Interest Rates - There is a noted uptick in inflation, particularly in services, which complicates the Fed's position as it tries to balance employment and inflation mandates [11][12]. - The central bank is cautious about implementing rate cuts too quickly, especially if inflation is not transitory [13][12]. Data Reliability Concerns - The BLS is regarded as the most reliable source of labor data, but the current government shutdown limits access to necessary revisions and updates [14][15]. - There is a warning against over-relying on monthly job growth numbers, as they may not accurately reflect the overall economic conditions due to changing demographics and labor force participation [15][16].

Core Viewpoint - The Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee expresses caution regarding rapid interest rate cuts due to rising inflation and deteriorating employment conditions [1][2]. Group 1: Inflation and Employment - Goolsbee highlights an uptick in inflation alongside deteriorating payroll job numbers, creating a challenging situation for the Federal Reserve as both sides of its dual mandate are under pressure [2]. - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted to lower the benchmark interest rate by a quarter percentage point in September, with indications of potential further cuts before year-end [2]. Group 2: Economic Outlook - Goolsbee, a voting member of the FOMC, acknowledges concerns about inflation and employment but notes that data suggests a stable labor market [3]. - He believes the underlying economy can support gradual interest rate reductions over time from current levels [3].

Toronto home sales rose last month as the Bank of Canada resumed interest-rate cuts https://t.co/hDpyfXyaRZ ...

Core Insights - US Treasury yields increased as economic data faced delays due to the federal government shutdown, leaving investors without key labor market indicators to gauge the Federal Reserve's next moves [1][2] - The two-year note yield rose by three basis points to 3.56%, while the 10-year yield remained stable at 4.10% [1] Group 1: Economic Impact of Government Shutdown - The ongoing government shutdown could lead to expectations of lower interest rates if it negatively impacts the economy, as suggested by UBS strategist Elena Amoruso [3] - The ISM readings indicated a weakening US economy, reinforcing concerns about economic activity during the shutdown [3] Group 2: Market Reactions and Predictions - Traders are anticipating a widening spread between five-year and 30-year Treasuries, projected to reach 106.5 basis points, driven by expectations of rate cuts [4] - There is over a 90% probability that the Federal Reserve will implement a 25 basis-point rate cut this month, reflecting market sentiment [4] Group 3: Labor Market Data Sensitivity - With official labor market data delayed, private data sources like Revelio Labs have gained importance, showing a gain of over 60,000 in total nonfarm payrolls for September [5] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics indicated that its reports may be delayed due to the shutdown, prompting traders to rely more on alternative data sets [6]

Group 1: Bitcoin ETF Inflows - Bitcoin ETFs recorded their highest single day of inflows since mid-September, attracting $675.8 million on Wednesday, with BlackRock's IBIT fund leading with $405.5 million [1] - The inflows marked a three-day streak of over $100 million, with $518 million on Monday and $429.9 million on Tuesday [2] - A significant turnaround was noted from the previous week, where $418.3 million left Bitcoin ETFs on September 26, including a loss of $300.4 million from Fidelity's FBTC [2] Group 2: Ethereum ETF Performance - Ethereum ETFs also showed strong performance, attracting $80.9 million on Wednesday, following $127.5 million on Tuesday and $546.9 million on Monday [3] Group 3: Market Drivers - Increased inflows are attributed to macroeconomic factors, including predictions of imminent interest rate cuts in the US, with a nearly 100% chance of a rate cut in October [4] - The ADP private payrolls report indicated labor market weakness, reinforcing expectations for further Federal Reserve cuts [4] - Speculators on the Myriad prediction market place a 75% chance on two Fed rate changes by year-end, with potential for a 0.25% cut this month if macro data supports it [5] Group 4: Bitcoin's Market Perception - Bitcoin is currently trading at $119,288, perceived as a store-of-value similar to gold amid risks like dollar debasement and de-dollarization trends in countries like Russia and China [6] - Bitcoin is noted to capture both store-of-value flows and growth-asset upside, effectively straddling both narratives [7]