Sometimes you have to take matters into your own hands. The government shutdown ended a while ago, but there's been at least one lingering effect: a lack of inflation data.The last CPI report was for September and released way back on October 24. November's inflation report — sorry October, we'll catch you next year — was scheduled to drop December 10, but got bumped to December 18. But who wants to wait another two-plus weeks?Business Insider took matters into its own hands, surveying readers about how p ...

Group 1 - US Treasury yields increased, with the 10-year yield rising by eight basis points to 4.09%, while shorter maturities rose by at least four basis points [3] - Merck & Co. announced an eight-part bond offering, contributing to a projected $40 billion in corporate bond supply for December, with approximately half expected this week [3] - The total corporate bond supply for the year through November reached $1.55 trillion, indicating robust market conditions [3] Group 2 - Expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut next week are high, despite concerns from some policymakers about persistent inflation above the 2% target [4] - Economists at Bank of America have resumed forecasting a Fed rate cut next week, influenced by recent employment data showing an increase in the unemployment rate to nearly 4.5% [4] - A private-sector gauge of US manufacturing unexpectedly declined, impacting the Treasury selloff and indicating potential economic weakness [5] Group 3 - Traders are assigning an 80% probability to the Fed lowering benchmark rates next week, influenced by President Trump's decision on the next central bank leader [7] - The market is reacting to the prospect of rate cuts, with US yields fluctuating around 4% after previously dropping below that level [6]

Core Viewpoint - RBC Capital Markets has set a new 12-month price target for the S&P 500 at 7,750, indicating confidence in US stocks and suggesting a potential rise of nearly 14% over the coming year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Target and Market Outlook - The new price target of 7,750 reflects a bullish sentiment among analysts, aligning with other optimistic forecasts such as Deutsche Bank's call for 8,000 by year-end 2026 [1][2]. - The expectation of a bull market continuation is supported by a growing consensus among analysts [2][7]. Group 2: Key Supporting Factors - A potential drop in interest rates is highlighted as a significant factor that could support stock prices, with historical data showing that modest Fed rate cuts lead to an average S&P 500 increase of 13.3% [3]. - Current market conditions indicate an 87% probability of a rate cut by the end of December, a significant increase from 30% two weeks prior, which could further bolster market confidence [4]. Group 3: Earnings Performance - S&P 500 companies reported a 13.4% profit growth in Q3, driven largely by Big Tech, marking the fourth consecutive quarter of double-digit gains and exceeding the 10-year average of 9.5% [5]. - Despite strong earnings, the growth is still below the five-year average of 14.9%, indicating room for improvement [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics - A rotation from megacap growth stocks to value stocks is beginning, with expectations that this trend will continue as earnings improve outside the top-performing companies [6]. - The overall economic outlook remains nuanced, with expectations of limited pullbacks in the S&P 500 to the 5-10% range unless recession risks become significant [8].

Nearly $1 billion of leveraged crypto positions were liquidated during another sharp drop in prices on Monday that brought fresh momentum to a wide-ranging selloff that has carried into a third month. Bitcoin slid as much as 8% to $83,824 in New York, bringing its decline for the year to more than 9%. Ether dropped 10% to as low as $2,719, and is down 18% since last December. The market downturn has been even tougher on smaller, less liquid tokens that traders often gravitate toward because of their highe ...

Core Insights - Interest rate cuts are beginning to take effect, indicating a shift in monetary policy [1] - Economic growth is anticipated to decelerate, with 2026 projected as a year of policy transition [1] Group 1 - The implementation of interest rate cuts suggests a response to current economic conditions [1] - A slowdown in growth is expected, highlighting potential challenges for various sectors [1] - The year 2026 is identified as a pivotal point for policy changes, which may impact investment strategies [1]

Core Viewpoint - President Trump has indicated he will soon announce his choice for the next Federal Reserve chair, aiming to replace Jerome Powell, who has faced criticism for not cutting interest rates quickly enough [1][7]. Group 1: Selection Process - Trump has confirmed he knows who he will pick for the Federal Reserve chair, intensifying focus on Kevin Hassett as a potential nominee [2][3]. - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is overseeing the selection process and has interviewed five finalists, including Hassett, Kevin Warsh, Chris Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Rick Rieder [8][10]. - The selection comes amid internal disagreements within the Federal Reserve regarding potential rate cuts in December [9]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Markets reacted positively to Trump's announcement, with interest rates decreasing and a successful treasury auction following the news [4]. - The expectation of a new Federal Reserve chair has led to market optimism, with the 10-year Treasury yield briefly falling below 4% [9]. Group 3: Economic Context - Current economic indicators show inflation remains above target, unemployment has risen to 4.4%, and key economic data has been delayed due to the government shutdown [11]. - Powell's cautious approach to rate cuts has frustrated Trump, who believes the Federal Reserve is hindering economic growth amid rising prices and borrowing costs [11][12].

Market Overview - Bitcoin experienced a significant decline, dropping to as low as $85,400, marking a 5% decrease overnight and continuing a six-week downward trend that began after reaching a record high of $126,000 in late October [1][2]. Value Loss - Since its peak in late October, Bitcoin has lost nearly one-third of its value due to extensive liquidations and sell-offs during October and November [2]. Market Sentiment - Bitcoin is currently viewed as a leading indicator for overall market risk sentiment, and its decline is seen as a negative signal for stock markets at the beginning of December [3]. Economic Data Impact - Traders are closely monitoring upcoming U.S. economic data releases, with expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut on December 10. However, adverse data on jobs and inflation could impact the timing and extent of these cuts [4]. Structural Headwinds - The market is characterized by a "risk-off" sentiment as December begins, with expectations of ongoing structural challenges. The $80,000 level is identified as a critical support point for Bitcoin [5]. Stablecoin Concerns - S&P Global Ratings downgraded its assessment of USDT, the largest stablecoin, indicating that a further decline in Bitcoin's value could jeopardize its collateral adequacy. Tether, the issuer of USDT, has expressed strong disagreement with this assessment [5]. Other Cryptocurrencies - Other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum and Solana, also experienced declines of over 5% on the same day [6].

Core Viewpoint - Singapore REITs have faced challenges due to high financing costs and investor sentiment but are expected to recover as interest rates decline, making it a favorable time to consider quality REITs [1][14]. Group 1: Market Overview - Singapore REITs have been under pressure for the past two years due to high interest rates and dampened investor sentiment [1]. - The outlook is likely to improve with anticipated interest rate cuts, which typically boost distributions and support asset values [1][14]. Group 2: Individual REIT Analysis - **Mapletree Pan Asia Commercial Trust (MPACT)**: - Owns properties across multiple countries and reported a DPU of S$0.0201 for 2QFY2025/2026, up 1.5% YoY [3]. - Committed occupancy fell to 88.9% from 96.4% YoY, with NPI down 2.2% YoY to S$163.9 million [4]. - VivoCity achieved 100% commitment and 14.1% rental reversion [4][5]. - **Mapletree Industrial Trust (MIT)**: - Manages S$8.5 billion in assets and reported a DPU of S$0.0318 for 2QFY2025/2026, down 5.6% YoY [6]. - Occupancy rate was 91.3%, with a weighted average rental reversion of 6.2% for its Singapore portfolio [6][7]. - Average borrowing cost declined to 3.0%, with data center demand as a long-term growth driver [7]. - **AIMS APAC REIT (AA REIT)**: - Reported a DPU of S$0.0472 for 1HFY2026, up 1.1% YoY, with portfolio occupancy at 93.3% [9]. - Achieved positive rental reversions of 7.7% in 1HFY2026 and has stable income from essential industries [10]. - **CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR)**: - DPU dipped 0.6% YoY to S$0.07477 in 1H2025, with aggregate leverage rising to 39.8% by September 2025 [11][12]. - Achieved rental reversions of 7.6% for renewed leases in 3Q2025, supported by a strong sponsor [12][13]. Group 3: Investment Outlook - Lower interest expenses are expected to boost distributable income and attract investors back to REITs [14]. - REITs with strong sponsors and quality assets are likely to lead the recovery as interest rates decline [16]. - MPACT, MIT, CLAR, and AA REIT are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the anticipated rate cuts [16].

Economic Indicators - Japanese corporate spending on factories and equipment rose by 2.9% in July-September compared to the same period last year, indicating resilience in the economy despite U.S. tariffs [1][12] - The yen gained 0.2% to 155.84 per dollar, moving away from its 10-month low of 157.90, which raised concerns about potential yen-buying interventions from Tokyo [2][12] Currency Market Dynamics - Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama noted that recent fluctuations in the foreign exchange market and the rapid weakening of the yen are not fundamentally driven [4][12] - The dollar has experienced a broad pullback, providing some relief to the yen, although it remains only 0.9% stronger for the year and is near lows against the euro and sterling [6][12] Federal Reserve Outlook - Markets are pricing in an 87% chance of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in the upcoming meeting, influenced by recent shifts in Fed easing expectations [7][12] - The dollar faced its worst week in four months, impacted by the potential nomination of Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair and expectations of a dovish policy shift [8][12] Other Currency Movements - The euro slightly increased by 0.02% to $1.1600 against a weaker dollar, while the British pound remained stable at $1.3240 after a positive budget announcement [6][7][12] - The Australian dollar decreased by 0.08% to $0.6543, and the New Zealand dollar fell by 0.09% to $0.5733, reflecting broader market trends [9][12] Cryptocurrency Performance - Bitcoin dropped by 3.6% to $87,881.82, while ether fell by 5% to $2,871.59, indicating volatility in the cryptocurrency market [10][12]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by over 3%, the S&P 500 surged nearly 4%, and the Nasdaq rose more than 4% during the Thanksgiving-shortened week [1][2] - The S&P 500 is projected to reach 7,000 by the end of 2025, reflecting a 19% gain, following two consecutive years of over 20% surges [3] Future Projections - Analysts predict the S&P 500 could hit 7,700 in 2026, indicating a 10% increase from the 2025 forecast [3] - Deutsche Bank forecasts the S&P 500 will finish 2026 at 8,000, representing a 17% increase from the recent close [5] - JPMorgan anticipates the S&P 500 could end 2026 at 7,500, with potential to reach 8,000 if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates [5] Economic Outlook - The Roaring 2020s scenario is expected to continue, with GDP growth, consumption, and corporate profits remaining strong [4] - Analysts highlight above-trend earnings growth, an AI capital spending boom, and rising shareholder payouts as key factors supporting market performance [6]