Steve Leeman has that story. Hey, Steve. >> Yeah, Mike.Some breaking or bad breaking inflation data from the government. Not about the levels, but about the release of data. We just learned from the BLS that the October and November PPI or wholesale inflation reports will now be delayed until January 14th and released with the December data when it comes out.This is longer than many expected the BLS to take to catch up. No, November PPI was originally scheduled for December 11th. New dates for the October a ...

Group 1 - U.S. households' current financial situations deteriorated notably in November, while their outlook for the next year slightly worsened [1] - Job market expectations improved, with a decrease in the anticipated unemployment rate and a lower probability of job loss over the next year [1] - Households reduced the likelihood of voluntarily leaving their jobs [1] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower its policy rate by 0.25 percentage points to the 3.50%-3.75% range to support a weakening job market [2] - There is considerable opposition among policymakers regarding the rate cut due to persistent inflation pressures above the Fed's 2% target [3] Group 3 - Inflation expectations for the next year remained steady at 3.2%, with three- and five-year projections unchanged at 3% [4] - Home price expectations held steady at a 3% increase, while medical cost expectations surged by 10.1%, the highest since January 2014 [5] - Future earnings and income growth remained positive compared to the previous month [5]

Japanese Bond Market Analysis - Japanese 30-year bond market is experiencing significant activity, with the 10 to 30-year spread nearly twice the normal spread over the last 25 years, reaching almost 160 compared to the usual 85 [2] - Japan is undergoing a normalization of its monetary policy after a period of yield curve controls and deflation [3][10] - The rise in Japanese bond yields could lead to a slowdown in the Japanese economy [7] Carry Trade Implications - Estimates suggest a $500 billion carry trade exists, and rising Japanese yields could cause capital to flow from the US back to Japan [5] - The unwinding of the carry trade is expected to continue as the US lowers interest rates and Japan raises them [10] Bond Samurai Influence - "Bond Samurai" are influencing the Japanese government to slow down quantitative tightening and adjust bond issuance towards the long end [6] - If the Japanese government doesn't heed the "Bond Samurai's" advice, rates could rise further, leading to a significant economic slowdown that could impact the US [7] US Market Impact - US real rates are approximately 100 basis points too high on the long end [11] - High US real rates could lead to a continued economic slowdown in the US unless they are lowered quickly [12]

Market Overview - U.S. equity markets are cautiously trending higher as investors prepare for the Federal Reserve's final monetary policy meeting of the year, with expectations for an interest rate cut [1][6] - Major U.S. indexes recorded solid gains last week, with the S&P 500 closing up between 0.3% and 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbing 0.9% to 0.91% [4][5] Premarket Activity - U.S. stock futures indicate a steady to slightly positive trend, with S&P 500 E-mini futures up approximately 0.1% to 0.2%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rising by about 0.18% to 0.27% [2] - Significant individual stock movements include Top Wealth Group Holding Limited surging over 125%, Paranovus Entertainment Technology Ltd. up more than 103%, and Cemtrex, Inc. gaining over 81% [3] Upcoming Economic Data - Key economic data releases this week include the delayed October Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report on December 9, and weekly jobless claims along with September trade data on December 11 [8] - The New York Fed's consumer inflation expectations survey is also scheduled for release on December 8 [8] Corporate Announcements - Earnings season is winding down, with notable companies such as Oracle and Adobe set to report quarterly results this week, which could lead to significant stock movements [10] - Air Products and Yara International are in discussions for low-emission ammonia projects, with final investment decisions expected by mid-2026 [11] - Safran launched a new digital ethics reporting platform aimed at enhancing its ethics alert system [11] - German warship maker TKMS reported a substantial increase in financial figures for fiscal year 2024/2025, with order intake six times higher than the previous year [11]

Core Viewpoint - The discussion centers on the euro-area economy, inflation, and monetary policy, particularly in light of European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel's comfort with investor expectations for an interest rate increase by the ECB [1] Group 1: Euro-Area Economy - The euro-area economy is under scrutiny as inflation remains a key concern for policymakers [1] - Investor sentiment is leaning towards the anticipation of a rate hike, indicating confidence in the ECB's monetary policy direction [1] Group 2: Inflation - Inflation trends in the euro area are influencing the ECB's decision-making process regarding interest rates [1] - The ECB's approach to managing inflation is critical for maintaining economic stability in the region [1] Group 3: Monetary Policy - The ECB is expected to adjust its monetary policy in response to current economic indicators, with a potential interest rate increase on the horizon [1] - The comments from Isabel Schnabel reflect a broader consensus within the ECB regarding the need for proactive measures to address inflation [1]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Economic Indicators - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) cut its policy rate by 25 basis points to 5.25%, aligning with economists' forecasts, due to weakness in key economic indicators despite easing headline inflation [1] - The economy expanded by 8.2% from July to September, surpassing expectations, while inflation remains subdued [2] - Industrial activity fell to a 14-month low in October, with manufacturing PMI dropping to a nine-month low in November, indicating signs of economic slowdown [3] Group 2: Trade and Tariff Impact - Exports to the U.S. decreased for the second consecutive month in October, down 8.5% year-on-year to $6.3 billion, with overall outbound shipments falling 11.8% to $34.38 billion [3] - The U.S. imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods since August, prompting New Delhi to reduce goods and services tax rates to stimulate domestic demand [4] - GST tax collections improved sharply in October to 1.95 trillion rupees ($21.7 billion), a 4.6% increase from the previous year, but growth slowed in November with collections of 1.7 trillion rupees, only a 0.7% increase [4] Group 3: Currency and Lending Environment - The Indian rupee has recently weakened against the dollar, crossing the 90-rupee-per-dollar mark [5] - Despite the policy rate cut earlier in the year, there has not been a significant increase in bank lending, indicating potential challenges in the lending environment [5]

Cryptocurrency Market Overview - Leading cryptocurrencies experienced declines on Thursday despite key stock indexes rising, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts [1] - Bitcoin fell by 1.04% to $92,460.85, while Ethereum dropped 1.77% to $3,156.33, and XRP decreased by 4.30% to $2.10 [2] - The global cryptocurrency market capitalization decreased by 0.92% to $3.14 trillion [7] Trading Activity - Bitcoin's trading volume fell by 19% over the last 24 hours, indicating a loss of momentum in its recent rebound [3] - Ethereum faced resistance at $3,220, dropping to $3,070 before regaining some ground [3] - Cryptocurrency liquidations reached $266 million in the last 24 hours, with long liquidations accounting for nearly $80 million [5] Market Sentiment and Predictions - The cryptocurrency market is currently characterized by high fear and volatility, with predictions that Bitcoin's next significant expansion cycle may not occur until 2026 [6] - Analysts have identified key resistance levels for Bitcoin at approximately $92,000 and for Ethereum between $3,100 and $3,150, suggesting potential future price movements [10][11] Stock Market Performance - Shares of cryptocurrency-related companies, such as Strategy Inc. and Coinbase Global, saw declines of 1.26% and 1.04%, respectively [4] - Major stock indexes, including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, extended their gains, with the S&P 500 closing up 0.11% [8]

Key Points XRP has had a volatile year, and a rough second half. Big catalysts like new exchange-traded funds haven't done much for the price. But, over time, work to upgrade network's capabilities likely will. 10 stocks we like better than XRP › Markets have a way of humbling people right after they start to feel clever. In mid-July, XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) was hitting seven-year highs of more than $3.60, and now, after months of decline, it's down to about $2.15. Regardless of how much pain the past ...

Monetary Policy & Market Conditions - The market is currently experiencing a peak in the stock market and a surge in gold markets while monetary policy is significantly easing [2] - The current "cure-all" is easy money, which is unsustainable and will eventually require a correction [2] - There are concerns about an AI bubble, with extraordinary amounts of money being spent without a clear ROI plan [2][3] Crisis Management - The system has become more efficient at handling crises on the back end, but struggles to address the front end of crises [1][2] Economic Dynamics - The economic pattern involves a debt-money dynamic followed by a stimulus dynamic [3] - The expectation is for continued easy money policies and less regulation [4] - Significant wealth gaps exist, with unicorn makers and stock market participants benefiting disproportionately [4]

Core Viewpoint - Kevin Hassett is emerging as a frontrunner to be the next Chair of the Federal Reserve, aligning closely with President Trump's economic views and interest rate policies [1][74]. Group 1: Candidate Profile - Kevin Hassett is seen as aligned with President Trump's views on the economy and monetary policy, advocating for interest rate cuts [2][3]. - He has criticized the Federal Reserve for its handling of inflation during the pandemic, suggesting a need for operational changes [3][6]. - Hassett's potential appointment could reshape the Federal Reserve's approach to monetary policy, focusing on job creation and reducing interest rates [5][7]. Group 2: Selection Process - The selection process for the next Fed Chair is being led by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, with interviews ongoing for five candidates [4][10]. - An announcement regarding the new Fed Chair could come by Christmas, with the current Chair, Jerome Powell, remaining in position until May 2026 [11][12]. Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the news of Hassett's frontrunner status, equity markets reacted positively, with the S&P 500 rising by 0.8% and the Russell 2000 gaining over 2% [78]. - The two-year yield, sensitive to Fed policy, dropped to approximately 3.46%, indicating market expectations of potential interest rate cuts [78]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The next Fed Chair could adopt a narrative prioritizing job growth over inflation concerns, depending on economic conditions [7][8]. - If inflation trends towards the Fed's 2% target, there may be opportunities to lower interest rates, but persistent inflation could complicate this [8][9]. - The economic outlook remains uncertain, with potential fiscal stimulus from tax cuts expected to impact growth and inflation dynamics in 2026 [25][26].