Core Viewpoint - The discussion emphasizes the importance of Federal Reserve independence from political influence, particularly from President Trump, while acknowledging the need for accountability in monetary policy [1][2][10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Independence - The Federal Reserve's independence is crucial, and the individuals being considered for leadership roles understand this importance [1][2][8]. - Historical examples of dictators who harmed their economies by controlling central banks highlight the risks of political interference [9][10]. - Critics of Trump misinterpret his comments on monetary policy as a desire to undermine Fed independence, while many appointed individuals assert their commitment to maintaining that independence [10][11]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Critique - The op-ed by Scott Besson compares the Fed's monetary policy to dangerous experiments during the COVID pandemic, suggesting that the Fed has taken on too many functions and is failing at its core responsibilities [4][7]. - The prolonged period of low interest rates and aggressive money printing since the 2008 crisis is seen as unsustainable and potentially harmful to the economy [5][6]. - Concerns are raised about the devaluation of the dollar due to excessive money printing, which could undermine its status as the reserve currency [6]. Group 3: Government and Market Interaction - The Fed has been criticized for acting as a bailout mechanism for reckless financial behavior, indicating a pattern of intervention in the markets [13][14]. - The discussion suggests that government involvement in lending practices, particularly in the housing market, has contributed to economic instability [16][17]. - There is a call for reducing government interference in financial markets to allow for a more free-market approach [18].

Group 1 - BlackRock's Rick Rieder is a leading candidate for the next Federal Reserve chair, as the White House continues its search [1][2] - Rieder recently interviewed with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who is focused on finding a successor to Jerome Powell and desires fundamental changes in the Fed's operations [2][3] - The discussion with Rieder included topics on monetary policy and structural issues within the central bank, indicating a shift from traditional approaches [3] Group 2 - The current administration has a list of 11 candidates for the Fed chair position, which includes various past and present officials, strategists, and economists [4] - The upcoming Fed meeting is anticipated to result in the first interest rate cut since December 2024, although Trump is advocating for larger cuts to alleviate pressure on the housing market and government borrowing costs [5]

Economic Indicators - The US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August increased by 0.4% month-over-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and up from July's 0.2% [2][3] - Year-over-year, the headline CPI was reported at 2.9%, meeting expectations and showing a slight increase from the previous 2.7% [2] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, remained steady at 0.3% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, consistent with forecasts [3] European Central Bank (ECB) Updates - The ECB decided to maintain its key interest rates, with the Deposit Facility Rate at 2.00%, the Main Refinancing Rate at 2.15%, and the Marginal Lending Facility at 2.40% [4] - The ECB raised its inflation outlook for 2025 and 2026 while slightly lowering it for 2027, indicating a more persistent inflationary environment [5] - The GDP growth forecast for the Eurozone in 2025 was revised upwards to 1.2% from 0.9%, while the 2026 forecast was trimmed to 1.0% from 1.1% [5] Company Performance - Kroger reported second-quarter 2025 earnings with adjusted EPS of $1.04, exceeding the estimated $1.00, despite slightly missing revenue expectations with sales of $33.98 billion [6][7] - Identical-store sales excluding fuel grew by 3.4%, significantly above the estimated 2.8% [7] - Kroger narrowed its full-year adjusted EPS guidance to $4.70 to $4.80, raising the lower end of its forecast [7] Oil Market Insights - OPEC maintained its forecasts for global oil demand growth at 1.29 million barrels per day (bpd) for 2025 and 1.38 million bpd for 2026 [10] - Crude output averaged 42.40 million bpd in August, an increase of 509,000 bpd from July, following an OPEC+ production hike [11]

Core Points - The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged [1] - Current inflation is around the 2% medium-term target, with the inflation outlook remaining broadly unchanged [1][2] - The ECB's new staff projections indicate headline inflation averaging 2.1% in 2025, 1.7% in 2026, and 1.9% in 2027 [2] - The economy is projected to grow by 1.2% in 2025, revised up from 0.9% expected in June, with growth projections for 2026 and 2027 at 1.0% and 1.3% respectively [2] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - Key ECB interest rates remain unchanged at 2.00% for the deposit facility, 2.15% for main refinancing operations, and 2.40% for the marginal lending facility [4] - The Governing Council will follow a data-dependent approach for future monetary policy decisions, assessing inflation outlook and economic data [3][5] - The Transmission Protection Instrument is available to address disorderly market dynamics that threaten monetary policy transmission across euro area countries [6]

Core Insights - The S&P 500 has reached a new high, indicating strong market performance [1] - The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) has decreased to 15.2 from 15.4, suggesting a calm sentiment in the market [2] - Investors are awaiting a crucial consumer price index (CPI) report that could influence Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2] Market Sentiment - The decline in the VIX below 20 reflects low volatility and a sense of calm among investors [2] - There is a prevailing expectation that the Federal Reserve will begin cutting interest rates, contingent on inflation data [2] - Any unexpected rise in inflation could complicate the Fed's ability to ease monetary policy [2]

try to put together, Phil, uh what 23rd record high for the S&P this year. What are are you thinking about valuations more or is it more about the the potential that names like Oracle are handing us. Yeah, and I think a lot of it has to do, Carl, with the fact that a lot of the things that people were worried about this year that may have kept valuations lower are kind of fading away a little bit here.So, last December 18th, we were here, Federal Reserve told us that they would cut rates twice in 2025. Nine ...

A burning Bitcoin symbol falls alongside a crashing red bar chart under a fiery blood moon in a stormy sky. Credit: CryptoSlate The crypto market lost $60 billion in market capitalization during the two hours following revised employment data, revealing a significantly weaker US labor market than previously reported. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced at 10 AM ET on Sept. 9 that preliminary benchmark revisions showed total nonfarm employment was overstated by 911,000 jobs, representing a 0.6% ...

Bitcoin is back in the spotlight as investors position themselves ahead of next week’s Federal Reserve’s meeting, where US policymakers are expected to slash interest rates. Lower interest rates usually incentivise investors to bet on risk-on assets like cryptocurrencies. Last year’s August rate cut ended up doubling Bitcoin’s price, and traders are betting that history is about to repeat itself. The top crypto can “easily get to $200,000 before the end of the year,” Tom Lee, managing partner at Fundstra ...

Summary of India Macro Outlook Post 50% Tariff, GST 2.0 & Strong GDP Data Industry Overview - **Industry**: Indian Economy - **Report Date**: September 4, 2025 - **Research Provider**: Deutsche Bank Key Points Economic Growth - Real GDP growth for April-June 2025 has exceeded expectations, but risks remain high for the second half of FY26 due to a 50% tariff shock [5][6] - Nominal GDP growth is projected to decline from 14.0% in FY23 to 12.0% in FY24, and further to 9.8% in FY25, with expectations of 9.0% or lower in FY26 [6][11] - The importance of nominal GDP growth is emphasized, as it affects corporate earnings, fiscal ratios, and debt dynamics [6] Inflation Trends - August CPI inflation is forecasted to rise to 2.23% YoY from 1.55% in July, with expectations of remaining subdued in the near term [7] - CPI inflation is projected to average 3.0% in FY26 and 4.5% in FY27, with a potential rise to 5.1% in April-June 2026 [8][9] - Core CPI inflation is expected to increase to an average of 4.4% in FY26, up from 3.5% in FY25 [9] Fiscal Outlook - GST 2.0 is expected to be fiscally sustainable, with higher consumption offsetting revenue shortfalls [10] - A revenue shortfall of INR 400-500 billion is anticipated in FY26, pushing the fiscal deficit to 4.50% of GDP [10][11] - FY26 GST collection is estimated at INR 11.8 trillion, a 10.9% YoY increase, but risks remain for lower tax collections due to moderating nominal GDP growth [11] Monetary Policy - The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to cut rates by 25bps on October 1, 2025, in response to growth risks [12] - The RBI's previous rate cuts have occurred despite positive GDP growth surprises, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy [12] Currency and Foreign Exchange - The Indian Rupee is expected to depreciate mildly, with a target of 88.0 against the USD by the end of December 2025 [13] - India's FX reserves stand at USD 690 billion, but net reserves are lower at USD 635 billion, indicating potential vulnerabilities [14] Additional Insights - India's International Investment Position (IIP) is negative, with liabilities exceeding assets, highlighting the need for building FX reserves [14] - The report emphasizes the importance of qualitative assessments of GDP growth figures, particularly in light of deflator impacts [6] Financial Projections - The report includes a detailed financial forecast for various economic indicators, including GDP growth, fiscal deficit, CPI inflation, and trade balance [15] This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the Deutsche Bank report on India's macroeconomic outlook, focusing on growth, inflation, fiscal policy, and currency dynamics.

Treasury Secretary Scott Besson has published a broad and sweeping criticism of the Federal Reserve in an issue which is now online and we've read the whole thing uh or most of the whole thing uh in the magazine called the international economy. Uh in the article he calls for an internal Fed review of its policy and all of the things it does and even suggests that the regulatory function the bank regulatory function should perhaps be stripped from the Federal Reserve says the FDIC and the Office of the Cont ...