Federal Reserve (The Fed) Policy & Interest Rates - The market is closely watching the upcoming Fed meeting for signals about future interest rate cuts, particularly the dot plot which will indicate intentions for the next three meetings [3] - The market anticipates at least one rate cut, unless weak retail sales data emerges before the Fed meeting [3] - There is potential for dissenting opinions within the Fed, with some members possibly advocating for no cut or a 50 basis points cut [4] - The current Fed funds rate should ideally be about 100 basis points below the 10-year Treasury yield, suggesting a target rate just over 3% [7] - Three rate cuts of 25 basis points each over the next three meetings would bring the rate down 75 basis points, moving closer to the 35% range [8] Market Trends & Investment Strategy - AI and AI-related stocks are expected to remain strong through year-end, potentially driven by fund managers seeking to improve year-to-date performance [10][11] - If the market anticipates three rate cuts this year and more next year, small-cap stocks, which are highly sensitive to interest rate expectations, are likely to perform well [11] - Concerns about stagflation, driven by weaker economic sentiment and higher inflation expectations, are present but may not be as significant as mainstream media hype suggests [11][12][13] - The market may react positively to indications of more aggressive rate cuts (e.g., 50 basis points), suggesting a shift towards a more dovish stance [6]

@JamieElky @Altcoinist_com @CryptoNagato @aintomega There’s an 85% chance the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points on Sep 17 📉As we talk about this, @JamieElky says:“It’ll spark conversation, spike interest, and maybe bring new people into Web3 for the first time." ...

Stocks retreating from record highs as a weaker thanex expected jobs report renewed concerns about the economy. But the data also strengthened the case for a September rate cut. Something my next guest believes is positive for stocks and is uh keeping him bullish on tech.Joining us now is David Lewitz, head of US equities at UBS Global Wealth Management. David, it's it's good to see you. So uh look, the market's having this modest rethink, I guess, of the perfect scenario of getting rate cuts into a strong ...

Treasuries rallied as a weaker-than-expected jobs report prompted traders to fully price a rate cut by the Federal Reserve this month https://t.co/70nm4rf0bR ...

Why don't we start off with this. What do you think's at stake with the jobs report coming up later today. I was mentioning earlier, I talked to a lot of people.They think not necessarily a market mover or they think the cuts already baked in unless we see an outside move either 10 to 15,000 to the upside or 10 to 15,000 to the downside. Yeah, there does have a feeling a little bit of deja vu. You think about a year ago, there was a couple of troubling payroll reports followed by that fullyear revision that ...

One year ago today, one year ago today, we bought the stock of Home Depot for the travel trust. We were looking for a rate cut at September Fed, meaning historically a terrific boost to the stock of this tremendous chain. Oh, we got that rate cut, but it didn't do what it was supposed to.Longerterm Treasury yield spiked in response, sending mortgage rates higher and starting a huge descent for the stock of Home Depot. But did we sell. No, we did the opposite and we told you to do so, too. We bought more and ...

All right, let's get right into it. Jeeoff, your word of the day today is motion. What's in motion.We saw bond yields move to the downside. Is that the motion you're talking about. >> A lot in motion indeed, Frank.But the motion I'm talking about is the magnificent motion. Look at the magnificent motion. In just the last month, we have seen Google up over 21% while the high-flying backbone of this rally because remember Frank, it's so appropriate.This is the 100th day since those April lows. And if you reme ...

Market Trends - Bitcoin is experiencing a significant price increase [1] - The anticipated September interest rate cut is a major contributing factor to the price surge [1] Financial Implications - The market is reacting positively to the expectation of a rate cut [1]

Interest Rate Cut Expectations - Partners Group believes a rate cut in September is highly likely, potentially exceeding market expectations of 85-87% due to labor market weakness [3][4] - Encouraging PCE data, particularly stable services inflation around 25% year-over-year, supports the likelihood of a September rate cut [6] - A rate cut could cushion the labor market and support consumer spending [14] AI Investment and Growth - While growth rates of AI beneficiaries like Nvidia may be slowing from over 200% year-over-year, hyperscaler capex is projected to be $400 billion next year, driving stock performance [8][9] - The total addressable market growth in AI will materialize through investments in data centers, connectivity, cooling, and related services [10] - Business application software is expected to outpace semiconductor growth within the AI sector, indicating a broadening of the AI trade [12] Broadening Market Opportunities - The broadening of the AI trade extends beyond semiconductors, with opportunities in business application software, including those in private markets [12][13] - Private equity middle market growth companies are seen as having significant potential, with earnings growth and margins exceeding those in public markets [15]

ETF Market Overview - ETF net inflows are topping $789 billion year-to-date, on pace for another trillion-dollar year [2] - ETFs are becoming the structure of choice due to liquidity, transparency, accessibility, and tax efficiency [3] - Investors are attracted to the ability to trade ETFs daily [3] Investment Strategies & Active Management - Active management is considered a valuable approach, especially for stocks with high multiples, to identify companies expected to perform well [6][8] - JP Morgan spends $1 billion on research analysts and technology, emphasizing the importance of active management [7] - Diversification is important, including both equities and fixed income [12] JP Morgan's ETF Products - JPM's largest actively managed ETF, Jepi (JPI), has approximately $41 billion in assets and provides income through an option overlay strategy [9] - Jepi's underlying portfolio has lower volatility than the S&P 500, around 60% of it [10] - Jeep Q is another large actively managed ETF with approximately $28-29 billion in assets, benchmarked against the NASDAQ, providing approximately 11-12% income [11] - JBond (JBND), an intermediate core bond fund, has seen about $2 billion in inflows this year and is an investment-grade portfolio [14] - JPST is another investment-grade portfolio option for diversifying from equities to fixed income [15] - JGrow (JGRO), a large-cap growth ETF, is considered a good way to play the current environment where a few names are driving performance [17] Market Factors & Fed Policy - The market is anticipating potential Fed rate cuts, with forward markets indicating cuts between 100 and 125 basis points over the next 12 months [13] - With potential rate cuts, investors may move from money market funds (currently at $7 trillion) into assets with longer duration to maintain yield [14]