Interest Rate Expectations and Fed Policy - The market anticipates a September rate cut with approximately a 65% probability [5] - The Fed's potential rate cut is linked to successfully navigating tariff impacts and observing inflation reports [3][6][7] - Current interest rates at 45% (implied 45%) are considered above restrictive in real terms (approximately 2%), suggesting a potential need for a rate cut [3] - The Fed is expected to provide clarity on the conditions (what), timing (when), and reasons (why) for potential rate cuts, particularly concerning tariff impacts [5][6] - Market implied inflation expectations are rangebound and consumer inflation expectations have decreased from previous highs of 6% to 7%, potentially giving the Fed leeway to cut rates if these trends continue [7][8] Market Conditions and Investment Strategy - Short-term market exuberance is noted, with the market up 30% from April lows, leading to high valuations and overbought conditions in public markets [9] - Near-term, the current moment may not be the ideal buying opportunity, but long-term investors should consider earnings growth, margins, and valuations [10] - Private markets are exhibiting meaningfully lower valuations, higher margins, and higher earnings growth compared to public markets [11] Impact of Rate Cuts and Capital Markets - A rate cut would be welcomed, especially for private market participants, as rates have already decreased by about 1% [4] - Constructive capital markets are likely to drive an uptick in M&A activity, which has already rebounded in June [12]

🇺🇸 FOMC: Polymarket users predict a 95% chance that the Fed will not make any rate cut changes this Wednesday. https://t.co/Hj06tRgl7X ...

President Trump making a rare visit to the Federal Reserve, generating a few awkward moments with Chairman Jay Powell. The president said ahead of the ahead of time that he was visiting to check out the central bank's ongoing renovation project. Uh President Trump has also been publicly pressuring the Fed to cut interest rates.Trump appeared at the site in a hard hat next to Powell. There was a moment of awkwardness as the two men went back and forth about the cost of that construction. You're including the ...

On the daily right now, Bitcoin is still down, but most of the altcoin market is up. And a lot of people are actually now wondering why. And it's because we are finally seeing exactly what we wanted to see for so long in this market.And in this video, I'm going to be talking about it, but it's happening. And it's happening right now. Now, let's actually dive on in and talk a little bit more about the overall market, specifically how the market is reacting.And we want to go over this on the hourly, the daily ...

A July rate cut by the Fed could be in play if today's jobs report is weak https://t.co/a9056ty4sA ...

A solid majority of FOMC participants do expect that it will become appropriate later this year to begin to reduce rates again. And so and that will depend, though, as Christine just mentioned, on the incoming data will be monitoring, particularly what does show up in terms of of inflation or what does not show up. And also carefully watching the labor market, you know, there we watch very carefully for signs of of unexpected weakness.We see a gradual cooling, but we don't really see that yet. So those are ...

Roger Ferguson. We got to get to him because he finally is can't wait to cut rates. That's a lie.That former for I I I thought I get someone's attention that way. Uh I would not have talked if I known Roger was former Fed vice chair as well as a CNBC contributor. If that ever does uh happen, Roger, you you let us know and and we'll cancel everything else we got going to put you on to say that.That's how surprising it was. So you did not say that. How are you feeling about the Fed's position right now. I thi ...