Fed Chair Jay Powell responding to White House criticism over the fence renovation project, writing in a letter to the director of the Office of Management and Budget, We take seriously the responsibility to be good stewards of public resources as we fulfill the duties given to us by Congress on behalf of the American people. Joining us now from washington, Mike shepherd. Shep, as we said at the start of this program, this story just won't die.You going to keep this one alive. Because in a way, they are try ...

Interest Rate Trends - Top-paying CDs offer rates of 4.50% or more through 2027 [1] - Rates of 4.28% and up can be locked in for three to five years [1]

Economic Outlook & Monetary Policy - Retail sales show positive signs, indicating the economy isn't declining sharply [1][4] - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will cut rates this year, but the timing remains uncertain [5] - Some believe the Fed should cut rates aggressively to stimulate the economy, potentially requiring more than 25-50 basis points [6] - Neutral interest rates are likely higher than current estimates, possibly around 3-35%, suggesting less need for aggressive rate cuts to stimulate the economy [7] - Calibrating rates to the underlying economic dynamics is crucial [8] Tariffs & Inflation - Companies have significant cash reserves (over $25 trillion outside of tech) and free cash flow to absorb tariff costs [2] - External producers may be absorbing some tariff costs, similar to 2019 [3] - The worst fears surrounding tariffs may be averted, but price pressures are still emerging [3] - The Federal Reserve's ability to look past short-term price pressures is crucial [3] Housing Market - Regulation at the state and local level is a major factor driving elevated home prices [9] - Addressing regulation is essential for long-term affordability in the housing market [9] - Cyclical solutions include increasing supply and reducing mortgage rates, but these won't fully address the regulatory impact [9] - The prospective buyers index is at a new cycle low [8] Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) & Resources - The industry is focused on capital expenditure, particularly related to AI and data centers [10] - Data centers require significant resources, especially water, highlighting the need for desalination [11] - Desalination requires energy, emphasizing the interconnectedness of energy and resource management [11][12] - Innovation in desalination to reduce energy consumption is crucial [12]

Bond Market & Yields - The 10-year yield remains stagnant at 446%, mirroring levels from November, indicating a lack of movement in borrowing costs [1] - Despite positive economic data, bond yields experienced an initial rise followed by a slight decrease, influenced by technical factors [4] - Key psychological levels for yields are identified: just under 2% for 2-year, 450% for 10-year, and 500% for 30-year maturities [5] Economic Data & Fed Policy - Retail sales show a healthy rebound, and initial jobless claims hit a three-month low at 221000 [2][3] - Market expectations for Fed funds imply less easing, shifting from over two quarter-point cuts to 170% [3] - Strong economic data initially pushed yields higher, aligning with typical market behavior [4] Dollar Index - The dollar index is nearing a one-month high, approaching the significant psychological level of 100 [7] - Increased interest rates and a decent labor market contribute to the strengthening of the dollar index [6]

Market Outlook - Goldman Sachs Research anticipates tariff rates to continue climbing throughout the year [2] - The market is pricing in a gradual increase in tariffs, with companies managing margins and sustaining earnings growth [3] - Continued earnings growth is considered the most important factor for the market [3] - There's a possibility of companies passing on tariff costs, potentially leading to a slight increase in inflation [3][4] - The S&P 500 target is 6,600 by year-end, representing approximately 5% upside [5] Risk Assessment - The biggest risk to the market is interest rates, with uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's actions [5] - Elevated uncertainty means the distribution of risks for asset prices is still pretty wide [6] Sector Performance - AI software basket is up more than 30% year-to-date, with a continued strong outlook [6] - Market breadth is narrow, with the median S&P 500 company still more than 10% below its high [7][8] - A catch-up in market performance is more likely than a continuation of the current outperformance [8]

On Tuesday, July 15th, we saw the June CPI data. Headline inflation climbed at 2.7% year-over-year, up from May's 2.4% reading. But X food and energy was lower than expected at plus.2% month overmonth.This mix suggested that the headline number was at least partially driven by elevated oil prices in June. In the wake of the Israel Iran conflict, the market's reaction reflected the general lack of clarity that the data introduced. Initially, the dollar traded lower, presumably believing that the drop in core ...

Market Overview - Market experienced volatility due to policy uncertainty and geopolitical events, even a "bear market scare" in Q2, but stocks recovered to all-time highs by the end of the quarter [1] - Fidelity thought leaders provided insights on the past quarter and discussed potential risks and opportunities for the next quarter [1] Key Topics Covered - Discussion included a Q2 recap and Q3 market outlook [1] - Analysis of stocks & bonds, taxes & tariffs, and interest rates [1] - Examination of risks & opportunities, consumer debt, and national debt & Treasurys [1] - Commentary on Bitcoin & gold [1] Economic Factors - CPI data and the Federal Reserve's actions were discussed [1] - Impact of tariffs on corporate earnings was analyzed [1] Market Segments - Perspectives on international stocks and U S exceptionalism were shared [1]

At a time of high interest rates, there are bargains to be found https://t.co/p2n0pJQyKz ...

President Trump says he's not planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. I I don't rule out anything, but I think it's highly unlikely. But in recent days, the Trump administration has been ramping up its pressure on the Fed chair over a $2.5% billion renovation of the central bank's office buildings overlooking the National Mall in Washington. People are taking seriously this is a credible threat to possibly try to remove the Fed chair. He should have cut interest rates a long time ago. Donald T ...

Australian unemployment unexpectedly climbed to a four-year high in June as hiring almost stalled, bolstering the case for the RBA to cut interest rates next month https://t.co/wi9Q20OMyF ...