Economy & Inflation - The US economy is viewed with skepticism by a majority of Americans, with concerns about its potential decline [1] - Inflation remains a persistent issue, exceeding the Federal Reserve's targets, while fiscal deficits are unusually high for this stage of the business cycle [3] - Some believe current policies, including government spending and tariffs, may exacerbate inflation and affordability challenges [5] - Affordability is emerging as a significant concern for Americans [6] - Real wages are not keeping pace with inflation, impacting the living standards of average workers [8][10] Public Sentiment & Presidential Approval - A significant portion of Americans feel financially worse off compared to the previous year [13][14] - Consumer confidence is near its lowest levels, comparable to periods of recession and financial crisis [15] - The President's economic policies have faced criticism for increasing affordability problems, leading to public dissatisfaction [17][18] Political Implications - The economic climate could impact upcoming elections, potentially affecting the success of candidates [18][19] - Key congressional races are being targeted by political committees, with the economy playing a crucial role [20] - The outcome of future elections will depend on the effectiveness of candidates in addressing economic concerns [22][23] Economic Assessment - An economics professor assesses the economy with a "B" grade based on unemployment, inflation, and the budget deficit [2] - Public sentiment towards the economy is significantly more negative, with many rating it a "D" due to personal financial struggles [9][15]

Federal statistical agencies are releasing delayed reports on inflation, jobs, and economic growth as they work through a major backlog from the 43-day government shutdown. Here's the economic calendar. https://t.co/FFxXVKOBAR ...

Ahead of the president's address on the economy tonight, the White House is ramping up its blame on Democrats. Now, here's White House press secretary Caroline Levit earlier today. >> Well, the Democrats are the greatest con artists in American politics.They are pretending to champion the issue of affordability when they themselves created the worst inflation crisis in a generation. You can't create a problem and then turn around and say, "I'm the best person to fix it." No. That's why President Trump was r ...

Core Insights - Ulta Beauty is experiencing increased consumer demand despite economic pressures, with comparable sales rising by 6.3% year over year in Q3 [1] - The launch of the UB Marketplace has expanded product offerings, introducing over 120 new brands [2] - Foot traffic in stores increased by 3.3% year over year, indicating strong customer engagement [3] Sales Performance - The average customer spending per purchase increased by nearly 4%, and the number of transactions rose by 2.4% [1] - Ulta Beauty has raised its sales expectations for fiscal year 2025, now predicting a growth of 4.4% to 4.7% compared to the previous estimate of 2.5% to 3.5% [12] Product Categories - Fragrance was the strongest growing category, followed by skincare and makeup, while hair care sales grew by mid-single digits [5] - Despite price increases due to tariffs, Ulta Beauty is working with brand partners to manage pricing changes [6][8] Consumer Behavior - The beauty industry is seeing a surge in demand as consumers prioritize self-care and wellness, with 59% of consumers feeling cautious about the economy [14][18] - A significant portion of consumers (one-third) plan to gift beauty products during the holiday season, indicating a shift in spending priorities [16] Market Trends - Prestige beauty sales reached $24.1 billion, a 4% increase year over year, while mass market beauty sales increased by 5%, totaling $54.5 billion [15] - The overall beauty industry is positioned for strong performance during the holiday season, with consumers focusing on value and strategic purchases [14][16]

Core Insights - Small business optimism increased in November, with the NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rising by 0.8 points to 99, remaining above the 52-year average of 98 [1][4] - The primary driver for this increase was a rise in the net percentage of owners expecting higher real sales volumes, which increased by 9 points to a net 15% [2] - Labor quality remains the top concern for small business owners, with 21% citing it as their primary issue, although this is a decrease of 6 points from October [4][6] Sales and Employment - The net percentage of small business owners raising their average selling prices increased by 13 points to a net 34%, marking the highest level since March 2023 [7] - Despite the optimism, small businesses are still facing challenges in hiring qualified workers, with job openings remaining above historical averages [5][6] - Nearly two-thirds (64%) of small business owners reported that supply chain disruptions were affecting their operations, an increase of 4 points from October [6] Inflation and Future Expectations - Small businesses expect continued inflationary pressures, with a net 30% planning to increase prices in the next three months, unchanged from October [8] - Expectations for better business conditions have declined significantly, down 32 points since January [8]

Economic Growth and Investment - The economy is performing well, with second-quarter growth at 8%, and a forecast of 3.5% to 4% growth for the third quarter [2][3] - There is a significant capital expenditure (capex) boom driven by policies that allow full expensing, contributing to a building boom [3][9] - Investment spending is at a multi-decade high, which is expected to enhance the economy's supply-side potential [9] Interest Rates and Monetary Policy - The neutral interest rate is likely lower than market expectations, suggesting that rates should be lower to stimulate economic activity [1] - High interest rates are currently impacting the economy, but there are concerns that cutting rates too much could lead to excessive debt issuance and potential market bubbles, particularly in AI [4][5] - The yield curve remains flat, indicating that inflation expectations are well-anchored, and a capex boom could be disinflationary [6] Inflation and Wages - Inflation is primarily seen in services, with expectations that prices will decrease due to falling rents and increased housing supply [5][6] - Real blue-collar wages have increased by 1% in the first nine months of the year, marking one of the strongest performances for any new administration [12] - Policies such as the working families tax cut are expected to raise wages through capital investment, which will help address cost of living issues [10][12]

Core Insights - Stagwell conducted a survey of 100 American CEOs to assess their sentiments regarding business priorities, economic outlook, and views on AI advancements as they approach 2026 [1][2][4] Group 1: CEO Sentiment on AI - 85% of CEOs view AI as entering a healthy growth phase rather than a bubble, with generative AI identified as the most transformative technology for 2026 [7] - 78% of CEOs are optimistic about AI's potential to enhance workplace efficiency and innovation [7] Group 2: Economic Outlook - 62% of CEOs believe the U.S. is on the wrong track, yet 74% express confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy as they head into 2026 [7] Group 3: Policy Priorities - Financial stability is the primary policy focus for 2026, with managing inflation (61%), reducing debt (47%), and job creation (33%) identified as top priorities [7] - Regulatory and policy shifts (66%) and trade restrictions (60%) are anticipated to significantly impact business operations [7] - Nearly half (46%) of CEOs express pessimism regarding the stability and predictability of political leaders [7]

Group 1: Company Strategy - PepsiCo is implementing price cuts on certain snacks as part of a new strategy developed with activist investor Elliott Investment Management to enhance U.S. performance and boost stock value [2][7] - The company has observed improved sales in areas where lower price points were tested, leading to increased shelf space for its snacks [1][2] Group 2: Market Context - The decision to lower prices comes amid a broader trend where several food manufacturers and retailers, including General Mills, Walmart, Target, and Kroger, are also announcing selective price rollbacks [4][7] - Despite these price cuts, analysts express uncertainty about whether overall food and beverage prices will decrease, as inflation remains above target levels and many businesses have not fully passed on tariff costs [3][5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - Consumers have shown resistance to purchasing items after price increases, leading companies to seek ways to help customers manage their budgets amid inflation and job market concerns [5][6] - The demand for certain products, such as ready-to-serve soups, has declined, while items like condensed soups and broths remain popular as they are often used for cooking, which is a common cost-saving strategy [6][7]

Benzinga and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue on some items through the links below. Economist Justin Wolfers criticized President Donald Trump’s rhetoric on the rising prices, noting that his promises on the campaign trail were never realistic to begin with. Trump’s ‘Original Sin’ On Sunday, Wolfers said that Trump’s “original sin” was telling voters that prices would fall, even though “in a healthy economy, they almost never do,” during his appearance on MS Now’s “Velshi.” Wolfers said ...

We do think uh the Fed's likely to cut rates uh at the upcoming meeting. We also think that this is a Fed that would like to get rates a bit lower uh into 2026. The challenge of course is that we expect to see a little bit of reaceleration in the economy uh during the first half of the year and we also expect inflation to remain uh comfortably above the central bank targets.So we believe this Fed when they say they're going to continue to focus on the data. We do think the data is going to be a bit confusin ...