Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller supports another interest rate cut at the upcoming policy meeting due to mixed signals from the job market [1][2] Labor Market Analysis - Waller believes the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) should reduce the policy rate by 25 basis points at the meeting concluding on October 29, based on labor market data [2] - He noted a weakening demand in the labor market, despite lower net immigration and a decline in labor force participation this year [4] - The current labor market shows low hiring and firing rates, which Waller describes as "ominous" [4][6] Future Rate Cuts - Waller indicated that if the labor market continues to soften and inflation remains controlled, the FOMC should consider reducing the policy rate to a neutral level, estimated to be 100 to 125 basis points lower than the current range of 4.00%-4.25% [5][7] - The anticipated policy rate would then be in the range of 2.75%-3.00% [5] Economic Context - The upcoming FOMC meeting is set against a backdrop of limited data availability due to the U.S. government shutdown, which complicates the assessment of the job market [4][7] - Waller emphasized that the Fed's focus remains on the job market while inflation pressures are expected to align with the Fed's 2% target [3]

Economic Outlook - The Treasury Secretary is seeking a visionary approach to economic policy, emphasizing the importance of forward-thinking rather than solely relying on historical data [2][3][4] - Current economic indicators suggest a weak labor market despite signs of stronger growth, creating a puzzling situation where a growing economy cannot coexist with negative or stagnant job growth [7][8][22] Interest Rate Policy - The discussion around interest rates indicates a cautious approach, with suggestions to reduce rates gradually while monitoring economic data [9][10][18] - The financial conditions for corporate America differ significantly from those for Main Street America, with rising costs for mortgages and loans impacting households [15][19] Labor Market Dynamics - There is uncertainty in hiring practices among firms due to tariff-related concerns, leading to a slowdown in payroll growth [11][12][13] - The labor market's current weakness is not reflected in the financial markets, raising questions about the sustainability of economic growth [22][23][35] Structural vs. Cyclical Changes - The potential for structural changes in the labor market poses a challenge for monetary policy, which is typically designed to address cyclical fluctuations [35][36] - The distinction between cyclical and structural changes is critical for future policy decisions, as misjudging the nature of the changes could lead to ineffective responses [37]

Welcome back, sir. It's good to see you. Has the process gone to stop, then, that we could get into or the other.Good stuff. How's the interview process going. It's going well, as far as I can tell.The secretary has a very systematic way of going down the list and doing the interviews. As I said the other week, I had a great interview with with Secretary Bessant, talked a lot about economics, Fed policy, the Fed balance sheet, just general stuff on the economy and financial markets. It went very quick.About ...

Government Finance & Inflation - Governments are spending excessively [1] - Inflation is presented as a likely consequence of current government fiscal policy [1] - The report warns of the potential harm caused by inflation [1] Economic Policy - Politicians are urged to consider the long-term implications of their actions [1]

Euro-area inflation is likely to slow less significantly below the ECB’s 2% target in 2026 than feared, supporting the case for a steady hand on interest rates, Primoz Dolenc says https://t.co/wuXHfeNe8F ...

Governments are living far beyond their means. Sadly, inflation is the most likely escape https://t.co/TNi2ZSdDa2 ...

Market Trends - Small caps are hitting record highs, indicating a shift in investor interest towards cheaper alternatives compared to mega-cap tech stocks, suggesting potential for gains [1][2] - Small caps are more sensitive to interest rates, and lower rates could provide momentum for sustained growth, especially if further rate cuts occur [3] Inflation and Consumer Spending - Recent reports indicate that tariffs are increasing prices, with high-income consumers spending on luxury items while lower-income consumers seek discounts [4][5] - There is concern about inflation impacting profit margins, as companies may either absorb tariff costs or pass them onto consumers, which could hurt revenues [5][6][7] - Despite inflation concerns, revenue growth remains strong, particularly among high-end consumers, as evidenced by positive results from luxury brands [8][9][10] Corporate Credit and Investment Sentiment - Notable investors are shorting corporate credit in developed markets, citing tight spreads, which raises questions about market stability [11][12] - The sentiment among banks remains bullish on the economy, with reports of healthy consumer spending and zero loss provisions from major banks [14][15] - While there are red flags such as tariffs and narrow spreads, there are also positive indicators driving the economy forward, suggesting a mixed outlook [16]

All right. So, what do you make of the action that we saw yesterday. I think I want to start off with the small caps hitting another record yesterday.What does that say about the market right now and the fact that investors are going into small caps, what we thought was a catch-up trade, uh, looking for, I guess, gains. What What do you think they're looking for there. >> I I think it's great.You're looking for something cheaper than the mega cap tech, right. You're looking for something that hasn't moved u ...

CEO Confidence and Economic Outlook - CEO信心略有下滑，但并未准备迎接剧烈衰退 [2][3] - 约64%的CEO预计会出现轻微的滞胀，即通胀高于趋势水平，经济增长略低于趋势水平 [4][5] - 25%的CEO认为经济将实现趋势增长 [5] AI Impact on Jobs - 大多数CEO预计未来四到五年内AI将对就业产生重大转型 [6] - 约52%的CEO期望通过使用AI来提高效率和降低成本 [7] - CEO们认为AI将导致现有工作岗位的重大转型，并创造一些新的工作岗位 [8] Labor Market Dynamics - 大部分CEO表示目前招聘没有困难，这与之前的状况有所不同 [9] - 劳动力市场相对疲软，但没有急剧下降 [9] - CEO们预计不会大幅裁员 [10] - 预计工资增长将在1%到3%之间 [12] Inflation and Monetary Policy - 关税对通胀的预期影响尚未完全显现 [14] - 美联储押注通胀将逐渐回落至2%的目标 [13][15]

Group 1: Economic and Market Trends - A federal judge in California has blocked the Trump administration from laying off thousands of federal workers during the government shutdown, which may impact federal employment and spending [2] - U.S. economic activity is reported to be stuck in neutral in recent weeks according to the Beige Book, indicating a slowdown in growth [7] - Gold futures have posted their 47th record close of the year, reflecting strong demand and market conditions [6] Group 2: Automotive Industry Insights - The average price of a new car in the U.S. has surpassed $50,000 for the first time, driven by a mix of electric vehicles (EVs) and higher-end vehicles [4] - Despite rising prices, when adjusted for inflation, many cars today may still be considered bargains compared to previous decades, with production efficiencies helping to lower costs [5] - The current new-vehicle market is primarily supported by wealthier households, which are propping up the higher end of the market, while price-conscious buyers are shifting towards used vehicles and more affordable new cars [5]