Economic Data Accuracy - The US economy's unpredictability is concerning given its size and sophistication [1] - BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data revisions show a downgrade in actual job growth [1] - The US economy created approximately 818,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months leading up to March 2024 [1] - Inaccurate employment data leads to inaccurate GDP assessments [2] - Bad data is a fixable problem that requires prioritization and effort [3] Market Implications - Sophisticated capital markets can react to real-time data and make informed decisions [3] - The combination of inaccurate employment and GDP data could be problematic for the economy [2] Data Collection & Reporting - There is a need to prioritize fixing the data collection and reporting systems [3] - Existing systems and SAS tools should be leveraged to improve the accuracy of employment data [3]

Economic Data & Labor Statistics - The report highlights the controversy surrounding the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, Erica McInterer, who was appointed by President Biden and later fired by Donald Trump due to alleged fabrication of job numbers [1] - Trump accused McInterer of faking job numbers to boost Kamala Harris's chances of victory before the election [1][2] - The report argues that no commissioner of labor statistics has ever been credibly accused of faking job numbers for political purposes [3] - The jobs report preceding the election showed only 12,000 jobs added in October, later revised to 43,000 after the election [4] - The current jobs report indicates 73,000 jobs added, which is considered weak [5] - The Bureau of Labor Statistics revised down job growth for May and June to 19,000 and 14,000 respectively, totaling 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported [6] Political & Media Response - Right-wing media outlets, such as Newsmax and Vice President JD Vance, initially presented the weak jobs report as positive news [7][8] - Fox News acknowledged the disappointing jobs numbers, with contributors attributing it to turmoil over tariffs and trade wars [10][12] - The report suggests Trump's actions are part of a larger pattern of the administration suppressing data it doesn't want the public to see [14] - The administration has reportedly deleted databases, restricted access to information, and eliminated programs related to various fields, including police misconduct, climate change, and health [15][16][17] Implications & Concerns - The report emphasizes the importance of accurate data for policymaking, business decisions, and scientific research [18][19] - Politicizing economic data can have significant long-term problematic impacts, as the data is crucial for understanding the state of the economy [13][14]

Labor Market Data & Politics - The accuracy and volatility of jobs data are questioned, with concerns about potential political influence on data calculation and interpretation [2][4][5] - The administration is perceived to be concerned about political undercurrents affecting data, potentially leading to preemptive actions regarding appointments [2][3] - There's a call for improving the quality of data and allocating more resources to ensure accuracy, especially given revisions in job performance metrics [6][7] Trade Deals & Market Catalysts - Approximately 70% of trade deals have been "inked," but not finalized, with focus shifting to the China deal as a potential market catalyst [8] - The market's reaction to trade deals is diminishing compared to earlier periods, with monetary policy expected to be a more significant driver [10][14] - The negotiator's strategy involves creating disruption to bring trading partners to the table and secure fairer deals for the United States [11][12] Monetary Policy & Economic Impact - Monetary policy is expected to drive markets more than trade deals, especially as investment from enacted bills filters through economic data [14] - The market is conditioned to understand the negotiator's techniques, reducing fear when large numbers are announced in trade negotiations [12] - Examples like Switzerland suggest that initial high numbers in trade disputes can be negotiated down through concessions and investments [12][13]

The Bureau of Labor Statistics is horrendous at their collection of data, along with their calculation of economic data, but the President shouldn’t fire the organization’s leader right after a data print the administration doesn’t like.Fire the leader for the fact 1/3 of all inflation metric inputs are made up right now. Fire the leader for incompetence at measuring job growth during the last two administrations.Just do it when people aren’t going to claim it is a political decision. Distracts the conversa ...

It is impossible to trust many government economic data points.Job growth, inflation, and others are all manipulated or inaccurate.Insane problem! https://t.co/SimKILfSIo ...

America’s Economic Data Disaster is Worse Than We Thought https://t.co/luMn6RotRG ...

Investors didn't get the dovish Fed they were hoping for, and that means the economic data, such as tomorrow's jobs report, loom larger than ever https://t.co/5otpYq0fTS ...

The VIX volatility index falling below 15 for the first time since February. For more, let's bring in Mandy Shu, head of derivatives market intelligence for SIBO Global Markets. Mandy, it's always great to see you. Great to be here.It's not just the VIX. I mean, volatility across asset classes, bond volatility is also very low. What does this tell you.Yeah, to me, I think it's a sign that what we're seeing in the markets is very much fundamentally driven, right. The fact that equities keep making new all-ti ...

Joel, just start with you on the tariff back and forth with the EU. I guess what's the advice while this plays out. I I think hold on to your seats because this this back and forth that we've been dealing with uh is unfortunately just part of the norm.Now, we do think we're going to end up with baseline tariffs of around 15%. Uh but Kelly, until we get there, these negotiations, it's going to create some volatility in the markets. It's going to create a little bit of anxiety.Uh and I think there is risk her ...

The unbearable slightness of aggregate economic data. https://t.co/DFUADyjl6E ...