Economic Growth & Slowdown - America's economic growth may be slowing [1] - Weaker output is indicated by recent data [1] Factors Contributing to Slowdown - Tariffs are taking their toll [1] - Economic uncertainty is impacting growth [1] - Curbs on migration are contributing to the slowdown [1] - Attacks on institutions such as the Federal Reserve are having an effect [1]

Economic Data Accuracy - The US economy's unpredictability is concerning given its size and sophistication [1] - BLS (Bureau of Labor Statistics) data revisions show a downgrade in actual job growth [1] - The US economy created approximately 818,000 fewer jobs in the 12 months leading up to March 2024 [1] - Inaccurate employment data leads to inaccurate GDP assessments [2] - Bad data is a fixable problem that requires prioritization and effort [3] Market Implications - Sophisticated capital markets can react to real-time data and make informed decisions [3] - The combination of inaccurate employment and GDP data could be problematic for the economy [2] Data Collection & Reporting - There is a need to prioritize fixing the data collection and reporting systems [3] - Existing systems and SAS tools should be leveraged to improve the accuracy of employment data [3]

All right. So, folks, you may not care about the Federal Reserve or interest rates, but you may want to buy a home. And what the Fed does could influence the bond market, which could influence mortgage rates.And guess what. We got new numbers on pending home sales for the month of June. Diana Ols.>> Well, Brian, pending home sales in June dropped just less than 1% from May and we're down 2.8% from June of last year. These counts are based on signed contracts for existing homes. So, people out shopping in Ju ...

So, you've said you don't think the Federal Reserve should be in a rush to cut interest rates. Why is that. So, I've been describing today's economy as like driving through fog.Um uh just some examples. Um there's a tax bill being um uh discussed, but no one actually knows what's going to end up in it and when it's going to pass. Um we've talked about tariffs, but I don't know, maybe you know better than I do, but I couldn't tell you what the tariff rate on Europe is going to be six months from now.Sure. Um ...

Core Insights - New analyst coverage is essential in navigating heightened economic uncertainty, providing updated insights into company fundamentals and risk exposures [2][3] - Recent initiations of coverage on companies like KALA BIO, Graham Corporation, Arq, and Hawkins reflect the growing need for sharper analysis amid inflationary pressures and weakening demand [3][10] Analyst Coverage Importance - Analysts possess specialized knowledge that offers critical insights into a company's financial health, growth potential, and industry trends, which are often difficult for individual investors to acquire independently [4] - New coverage typically indicates a higher investor inclination towards a stock, as it suggests that the company holds potential value [5][7] Value Creation by Analysts - Analysts create value for companies by initiating coverage, acting as intermediaries with extensive access to relevant data, which helps mitigate inefficiencies in the market [6] - Stocks chosen for new coverage usually reflect a positive outlook envisioned by analysts, often leading to more favorable ratings compared to continuously covered stocks [7][8] Market Impact of New Coverage - New analyst coverage can lead to immediate stock price volatility, with positive ratings attracting bullish sentiment and driving share prices higher, while negative ratings may trigger sell-offs [9] - Favorable coverage from multiple analysts can enhance investor confidence, leading to sustained upward momentum in stock valuations [9] Recent Stock Performances - KALA BIO shares increased by 96.1% over the past three months, with a narrowing loss per share estimate for 2025 [10][15] - Graham Corporation shares rose by 75.2% in the same period, with an increasing EPS estimate for fiscal 2026 [10][16] - Arq shares gained 57%, with an unchanged EPS estimate indicating improvement from the previous year's loss [10][17] - Hawkins shares saw a 25.6% increase, despite an unchanged EPS estimate indicating a year-over-year decline [10][18] Screening Criteria for Investment - Stocks with increased analyst coverage and improving average ratings are prioritized, alongside other parameters such as price and average daily volume [12][13]

Core Insights - The U.S. is experiencing significant impacts from tariffs, with customs duties exceeding $100 billion for the first time in a single year, indicating a growing trend in tariff implementation [2][4] - The upcoming tariffs, particularly on pharmaceuticals, are expected to increase prices and create uncertainty for consumers and businesses [1][9][17] Tariff Revenue and Economic Impact - In June, the U.S. collected over $27 billion in tariffs, contributing to a surprising $27 billion budget surplus for the month [4] - If the current tariff strategy continues, tariff revenue could exceed $300 billion by year-end [4] - The average U.S. household is estimated to incur an additional cost of $2,500 due to tariffs this year [7] Inflation and Consumer Prices - The consumer price index (CPI) rose to 2.7% year-over-year, with core inflation at 2.9%, driven by high tariff rates on imported consumer staples [6] - Tariffs are likely to lead to higher prices at major retailers, impacting disposable income for families [7] Sector-Specific Impacts - The automotive sector is facing potential price increases of up to $5,700 per imported vehicle due to tariffs, although prices have dipped recently [8] - The pharmaceutical industry is on alert for proposed drug import tariffs, which could significantly affect healthcare stocks [9] Business Sentiment and Economic Growth - A survey indicates that 70% of executives report tariff-related uncertainty, with nearly 90% in manufacturing expressing similar concerns [13] - This uncertainty may lead to reduced hiring and investment, potentially dragging GDP growth down by approximately one percentage point this year [14] Market Performance and Investment Strategies - Despite tariff-related challenges, the S&P 500 reached a record high, with some companies absorbing tariff costs or rerouting supply chains to lower-tariff countries [10][11] - Gold is suggested as a potential investment due to tariff-induced uncertainty and fiscal imbalances, with a recommendation for a 10% allocation in physical gold and gold mining stocks [16]

A wave of new buildings, weak demand and economic uncertainty are weighing on sales of warehouses https://t.co/B6JwGQlrmy ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter revenue decreased to $657 million, with same store sales down by 9% [7][13] - Adjusted net income for the quarter was $11 million, or $0.49 per diluted share, compared to $34.8 million, or $1.51 per diluted share last year [15] - Third quarter adjusted EBITDA was $35.5 million, down from $70.4 million last year [16] - Gross profit margin decreased from the prior year, but consolidated gross margin remained above 30% due to strong performance in higher margin businesses [7][14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - New boat margins are near historic lows, contributing to pressure on overall margins [7][13] - Higher margin businesses, including finance and insurance, superyacht services, storage, and marina operations, helped maintain gross margins [7][14] - Adjusted selling, general, and administrative expenses decreased by about $11 million year-to-date [8][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Consumer caution increased since April, leading to a noticeable decline in retail demand across the recreational industry [6][9] - Inventory levels increased year-over-year by approximately $26 million due to softer than expected sales [16] - Customer deposits decreased due to timing of large orders and a softer retail environment [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on disciplined execution and investing in higher margin businesses to enhance profitability when the market stabilizes [10][19] - Continued investment in digital tools and customer experience enhancements is a priority for long-term success [6][10] - The company is optimistic about early signs of stabilization in the market, with manufacturers adjusting production to align inventory with retail demand [9][19] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed caution regarding the near-term outlook due to ongoing economic uncertainty but remains confident in the long-term strategy [19][58] - The company anticipates challenges in September similar to those faced in June, but is working hard to make same store sales positive [35][36] - There is a belief that pent-up demand exists, with consumers delaying purchases due to economic uncertainties [71][72] Other Important Information - The company has repurchased approximately 6% of its outstanding stock during the fiscal year [17] - A non-cash goodwill impairment charge of over $69 million was recorded, reflecting macroeconomic uncertainty [15] Q&A Session Summary Question: Why is there no improvement in consumer confidence despite a rebound in the stock market? - Management noted that consumer confidence dropped significantly after April due to various uncertainties, but there are signs of improvement in July [26][28] Question: How should same store sales be expected for the fourth quarter? - Management indicated that while they are working hard to make same store sales positive, it is prudent to expect a decline [35][36] Question: What factors need to change for the promotional environment to improve? - Management highlighted that excess inventories and ongoing uncertainties are driving the current promotional environment [47] Question: Are manufacturers making adjustments to drive inventories lower? - Management confirmed that manufacturers are working to align production with retail activity to avoid excess inventory [52] Question: How is the Florida market recovering post-hurricanes? - Management indicated that certain areas in Florida are still not fully recovered from the hurricanes, impacting sales [54] Question: Has the view on broader recovery in boat retail shifted? - Management stated that their long-term view remains unchanged despite the current tough period [58][59]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global enterprise revenues for the second quarter of 2025 were $1,370 million, down 7% from the same period last year on both a reported and adjusted basis [6] - Net income per share decreased to $0.41 from $0.66 year-over-year [6] - Cash flow from operations was $119 million during the quarter [7] - Return on invested capital was 12% in the second quarter [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Talent Solutions revenues were down 11% year-over-year, with U.S. revenues at $668 million and non-U.S. revenues at $207 million [10][11] - Protiviti's global revenues were $495 million, with U.S. revenues down 1% and non-U.S. revenues up 11% year-over-year [12][13] - Contract Talent Solutions bill rates increased by 3.8% year-over-year, adjusted for revenue mix [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The unemployment rate for college-educated professionals remained low at 2.5%, indicating labor supply constraints [22] - Job openings are above historical levels, suggesting strong pent-up hiring demand despite subdued hiring activity [22] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to capitalize on emerging opportunities through its strong brand, technology, and unique business model that includes both professional staffing and business consulting services [7] - The strategic integration of contract professionals sourced through Talent Solutions is seen as a key driver for performance [24] - The company is committed to connecting people to meaningful work and providing clients with the necessary talent and consulting expertise [24] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that fears of economic recession have eased, and small business confidence has rebounded modestly [22] - The tone of client conversations has improved recently, indicating a potential uptick in demand [48] - Protiviti's pipeline remains strong, with new opportunities increasing significantly in the last thirty days [36] Other Important Information - The company distributed a cash dividend of $0.59 per share, totaling $59 million, with an average annual growth of 11.5% since 2004 [8] - The adjusted operating income for the second quarter was $59 million, or 4.3% of revenue [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: Inquiry about bill rate increases - Management indicated that unadjusted bill rates would be higher due to mix impacts, with historical increases of 100 to 200 basis points [28][30] Question: Clarification on Protiviti's project timelines - Management explained that the slight year-on-year revenue decline is due to extended conversion timelines and reduced average project sizes, but the pipeline remains strong [34][36] Question: Dynamics of the entry-level labor market - Management noted that AI has had little impact on revenues so far, and small business clients typically seek experienced staff rather than entry-level graduates [60][62] Question: Performance of financial services clients - Management stated that trends in Protiviti's financial services client base are consistent with overall business trends, with cost consciousness and extended decision cycles [70] Question: Competitive dynamics in Protiviti - Management clarified that competition from the Big Four has stabilized, and competitive dynamics are not a significant factor in the current revenue trends [92] Question: Non-U.S. productivity growth - Management highlighted that non-U.S. productivity growth was driven by favorable comparisons and successful joint projects in Germany and Canada [99]

Core Insights - CME Group reported second-quarter 2025 operating income of $2.96 per share, exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 1.7% and reflecting a year-over-year increase of 15.6% [1][9] - The quarterly results were bolstered by rising revenues, primarily from higher clearing and transaction fees, as well as market data and information services fees, with increased volatility driving trading volumes [1][2] Revenue Performance - CME Group's revenues reached $1.7 billion, marking a 10.4% increase year over year, driven by an 11% rise in clearing and transaction fees and a 13.2% increase in market data and information services [2] - The revenue figure surpassed the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 0.5% [2] Expense and Operating Income - Total expenses rose by 5.8% year over year to $562.7 million, primarily due to increased compensation and benefits, technology costs, professional fees, and licensing agreements, exceeding the estimate of $513.7 million [3] - Operating income increased by 12.9% from the prior-year quarter to $1.1 billion, aligning with the estimate [3] Trading Volume - Average daily volume (ADV) reached a record 30.2 million contracts, up 16% year over year, with increases across all product lines [4][9] - The total average rate per contract was 69 cents [4] Financial Position - As of June 30, 2025, CME Group had $1.5 billion in cash and marketable securities, down 30.1% from the end of 2024 [5] - Long-term debt stood at $3.4 billion, reflecting a 27.7% increase from the end of 2024 [5] - Shareholders' equity was valued at $27.7 billion, up 4.7% from the end of 2024 [5] Capital Deployment - CME Group declared dividends totaling $3 billion in the first half of 2025, having returned over $29.1 billion to shareholders since the introduction of its variable dividend policy in early 2012 [6]