Our next guest says the rally makes sense. Thinks the S&P could hit 6,700 by year end. Joining us here at Post 9 is UBS Global Wealth senior portfolio manager Alan Rexavan.Allan, welcome back. Good to see you. >> Good to see you, Carl.>> We do have a couple year-end targets with a seven handle. Do you think you might get there. >> Look, uh I think that what we've seen is this rally represents the the prices catching up with policy.People now have faith in the tariff negotiation strategy of the president. An ...

The Fed's going to be meeting this week uh with pressure mounting of course from the president to lower interest rates. Joining us right now, former federal vice chair uh Roger Ferguson. He's also a CNBC contributor.Good morning to you on this Monday morning, Roger. Um I don't think anybody expects J. Powell to lower interest rates.I don't know if you have a different view or you think something else is going to come, not just this week, but what we're going to see in the rest of the year. So certainly I ag ...

So, let's bring in Courtney Brown, senior economic reporter for Axios. Yamich Alendor is back with us, of course, covering the president. Ned Price never left us.So, Ned, thank you for being here. Yamich, your take on what we heard there be because the president had said earlier, yeah, there's a 50-50 chance that this is going to happen. That is a better percentage chance than he often gives any kind of negotiations when he's going in.So, was this expected. Uh well, the president said that while it was a 50 ...

Core Viewpoint - The mortgage-backed security (MBS) market remains challenging due to ongoing tariff issues and tensions between President Trump and Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, impacting AGNC Investment's performance despite a high dividend yield of over 15% [1] Market Environment - AGNC primarily holds MBS backed by government-sponsored agencies like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, which are generally considered low-risk due to their government backing [2] - Interest rates significantly affect MBS values, with yields trading at a spread to U.S. Treasury yields, which are viewed as safe [3] - Regulatory tightening has led banks to avoid longer-duration assets like MBS, contributing to market pressure [3] Company Performance - AGNC reported a 5% decline in tangible book value (TBV) to $7.81 per share at the end of Q2, down from $8.25 per share at the end of Q1, but noted a 1% increase in July after accounting for dividends [6] - The average net interest spread for AGNC was 2.01%, down from 2.69% a year ago and 2.12% in Q1, attributed to reduced benefits from hedges and increased hedge costs [7] - AGNC generated $0.38 per share in net spread and income from dollar rolls, resulting in a negative 1% economic return on tangible common equity [8] Leverage and Capital Deployment - The company ended the quarter with a leverage ratio of 7.6 times tangible net book value, slightly up from 7.5 at the end of Q1 [9] - AGNC raised $800 million in equity through its ATM program at a premium to TBV, with plans to invest the proceeds gradually [10] Future Outlook - AGNC expects net spread and dollar roll income to remain in the mid- to high-$0.30 to low- to mid-$0.40 range, which should support its dividend [12] - The company requires tighter MBS spreads for TBV improvement, as current wide spreads can be beneficial for investment returns but need to narrow for stock appreciation [13] - With MBS spreads near historical highs, the stock may be attractive for risk-tolerant, income-oriented investors, although the current price reflects some of this potential [14]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company's net sales for Q2 2025 were $2.8 billion, essentially flat compared to the previous year, both as reported and on a constant basis [5][14] - Adjusted earnings per share for Q2 were $2.77, with productivity and restructuring actions contributing positively, while higher input costs and plant shutdowns had a negative impact [5][14] - Gross margin for the quarter was reported at 25.5%, with an adjusted gross margin of 26.4%, reflecting a decrease of approximately 70 basis points year-over-year due to higher input costs and lower sales volume [14][15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global Ceramic segment sales exceeded $1.1 billion, a 0.5% increase as reported, benefiting from new product introductions and strong commercial business [15][16] - Flooring North America reported sales of $947 million, a 1.2% decrease primarily due to lower volumes in soft surfaces, although resilient and laminate businesses showed favorable product mix [16][17] - Flooring Rest of the World had sales of $734 million, a 1% increase as reported, but a 3% decrease on a constant basis, primarily due to pricing pressure in the residential remodeling channel [17][18] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. housing inventory has risen to its highest level since 2007, impacting sales of new and existing homes, with builders offering price reductions to stimulate purchases [7][8] - The architectural billing index in the U.S. is forecasting slowing conditions, indicating potential challenges in the commercial channel moving forward [7] - In Europe, the housing market is constrained by affordability issues, although lower interest rates are expected to stimulate consumer spending and housing sales [10][11] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on operational improvements, cost containment, and market development initiatives to navigate challenging market conditions [5][6] - Restructuring actions are on schedule, expected to deliver approximately $100 million in annual cost savings in 2025 [6][15] - The company is emphasizing the benefits of locally produced collections in response to increasing tariffs and is adjusting pricing strategies accordingly [11][12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that ongoing inflation and low consumer confidence are constraining industry sales, with the timing of recovery remaining unpredictable [29] - The company expects input cost pressures to peak in Q3, with a forecasted EPS for Q3 between $2.56 and $2.66, excluding restructuring charges [31][32] - Management remains optimistic about long-term growth as the industry recovers from cyclical downturns, leveraging operational improvements and product innovations [29][32] Other Important Information - The company generated approximately $125 million in free cash flow during the quarter and repurchased about 393,000 shares for approximately $42 million [6][14] - Cash and cash equivalents were reported at $547 million, with a current net debt of $1.7 billion and leverage at 1.2 times [18][19] - The company has reduced planned investments to approximately $500 million in 2025, focusing on cost reduction and product innovation [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you provide insights on the pricing environment in Flooring North America? - Management indicated that while segment sales were flat, stronger performance in hard surfaces was noted, with ongoing productivity initiatives helping to mitigate pricing pressures [35][36] Question: What is the potential impact of new tariffs on costs? - Management stated that the current tariff negotiations are ongoing, and while initial tariffs were around 10%, they could rise significantly, impacting pricing strategies [39][40] Question: How is the competitive pricing landscape evolving? - Management confirmed that they have implemented price increases in response to rising costs and expect the industry to follow suit as tariffs increase [45][46] Question: What are the expectations for the commercial market moving forward? - Management noted that while the U.S. commercial business is performing well, there are expectations for a slowdown in the market due to leading indicators [87] Question: How is the company addressing the impact of tariffs on imports? - Management is actively monitoring tariff negotiations and adjusting supply chain strategies to mitigate potential impacts on costs and pricing [107][108]

Market Sentiment & Monetary Policy - The market, including the stock and bond markets, appears largely unconcerned with current political rhetoric and potential policy changes [4][6] - The volatility index is at a level not seen in a long time, suggesting market complacency [4] - The CME Fed funds tracker implies only about a 40% chance of a further 25 basis points rate cut in September [5] - There is a disconnect between the indices and individual company reports, suggesting a potential correction [6] - Monetary policy may take a backseat in the near future [6] Interest Rates & Debt - The bond market has been relatively complacent despite uncertainties surrounding the Fed and increasing debt issuance [7] - The White House desires lower rates to reduce funding costs, envying the Biden administration's lower debt funding costs [8][9] - The zero interest rate policy is over, and funding at the short end of the curve may not be attractive [10] - A 50 basis points cut on $15.5 trillion of refinancing would only save about $75 billion in interest expense [11] - Lowering the Fed rate may not necessarily impact the long end of the curve or housing costs [13][14] Economic Outlook - The US economy is resilient, with unemployment near record lows and GDP tracking around pre-pandemic levels [3] - The market uptrend has been generally unabated since November 22, with the NASDAQ up almost 37% from April 8 lows [18][19]

your take on this, especially since we haven't had a president formally visit the Fed in almost two decades. And the last time that happened, it wasn't it wasn't for political reasons. >> No, it was uh back in uh uh 2006 when uh George W.Bush was there for uh the swearing in of Ben Bernani. Before that, it was Gerald Ford for a similar reason. And before that it was FDR opening up the central bank in or this particular or one of its buildings in 1937.So um this is a very different reason for the president t ...

Company Insights - Tesla's stock (TSLA) has shown a decline following its earnings report, indicating a shift in investor sentiment as the momentum crowd moves away from TSLA towards more speculative stocks [12] - CEO Elon Musk expressed ambitions for Tesla to produce 100,000 humanoid robots per month within five years, alongside positive remarks about Tesla's energy sector, which typically generates excitement in the market [12] - Despite Musk's optimistic outlook, the current performance of Tesla's electric vehicle (EV) segment is deteriorating, which has not been overlooked by investors this time [12] Market Trends - Money flows in early trading show a negative trend for TSLA, while other tech giants like NVIDIA, Meta, Amazon, and Alphabet are experiencing positive flows [8] - The overall market is influenced by various crosscurrents, including speculation about interest rate cuts and potential trade deals between the U.S. and other countries [12][5] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims came in at 217,000, which is lower than the consensus estimate of 225,000, indicating strong labor market data that does not support a rate cut [12] - The Treasury auction results showed a high yield of 4.935% for a $13 billion 20-year Treasury bond reopening, with a bid-to-cover ratio of 2.79, reflecting investor interest [12]

Yes, Carl. These are June new home sales. Expecting a nice round number around 650,000 seasonally adjusted annualized units.Comes in on the light side, no surprise, 627,000. Uh but it is from a 623,000. So it is up just a smidge somewhere around a half a percent.But here's the deal. Last month 623,000 was the lowest in seven months going to October of last year. This is barely above that.It still comps to that. The previous month was a much more robust 722,000. So, we have back-to-back weak months.And we kn ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported second quarter net income of $242 million or $2.67 per share, an increase from $199 million or $2.20 per share in 2024 [4] - Excluding special items, net income was $224 million or $2.48 per share compared to $199 million or $2.20 per share in 2024, reflecting a $0.28 per share increase driven by higher prices and lower fiber costs [4][5] - Second quarter net sales were $2.2 billion in 2025, up from $2.1 billion in 2024 [4] - Total company EBITDA for the second quarter, excluding special items, was $451 million in 2025 compared to $400 million in 2024 [4] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Packaging segment, EBITDA excluding special items was $453 million with sales of $2 billion, resulting in a margin of 22.6%, compared to last year's EBITDA of $400 million and sales of $1.9 billion with a margin of 21% [5][6] - The Paper segment reported EBITDA excluding special items of $30 million with sales of $146 million, yielding a margin of 20.8%, compared to $31 million and $150 million in sales in 2024 [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Domestic containerboard and corrugated products prices and mix were $0.95 per share above 2024, with export containerboard prices up $0.03 per share versus last year's second quarter [8] - Export containerboard sales were lower, with a production of 85,000 fewer tons than in 2024 [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company announced an agreement to acquire the Greif containerboard business, which is expected to provide a strong growth platform for both containerboard and corrugated products [7][10] - The acquisition is anticipated to be completed by the end of the third quarter, subject to regulatory approval [7] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that while corrugated customers remained cautious, there was steady improvement in bookings and shipments as July progressed [15] - The company expects higher corrugated shipments and containerboard production in the third quarter, despite lower export containerboard sales due to the global trade environment [15][16] - Management expressed optimism about potential upside if global trade issues and tariffs are resolved [70] Other Important Information - Cash provided by operations was $300 million in the quarter, with free cash flow of $130 million [13] - The company has a quarter-end cash balance, including marketable securities, of $956 million, with liquidity of approximately $1.3 billion [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you talk about bookings and billings to start the new quarter? - Bookings are trending at 2% over Q2 2024, with a good start compared to last year's strong performance [23] Question: What was behind the better performance in operations? - The company operated at approximately 99% uptime performance, executing efficiently despite some downtime due to demand [25] Question: Can you clarify the impact of export sales on revenue and EBITDA? - The increase in revenue and EBITDA per ton is primarily due to price increases rather than mix changes [29] Question: What is the outlook for e-commerce growth? - Customers in the e-commerce sector are still growing mid-single digits, with more growth expected in the second half of the year [79] Question: How will the Greif acquisition impact recycled mix and customer sets? - The recycled mix is expected to increase from around 20% to approximately 30% post-acquisition, providing better opportunities in the market [86] Question: What is the expected marginal cost of the new debt from the Greif acquisition? - The company is modeling about a 5.5% interest rate on the new debt, resulting in around $100 million incremental interest [100]