Value stocks, commodity prices and the yield curve show markets are pricing in an easier monetary policy https://t.co/ZOAHe4JcUx ...

Economic Outlook - Chinese fiscal and monetary policymakers held a rare meeting, leading to speculation about potential easing measures [1] - The anticipated easing measures are expected to support both the bond market and overall economic growth in the current year [1]

So, let's get to Steve Leeman, who is with one of the potential Fed picks, who seemed to have gotten more popular uh as time has been going by and and even before he was mentioned, we had talked about him and and talking about cuts way before that. Uh Chris Waller, hi Steve. >> Yes, we had uh Joe and I am joined by Fed Governor Chris Waller, who because he's right here, he's my pick right now.Thanks for joining us, Governor Waller. Um I want to start off with what uh is is among the most interesting things ...

We begin with President Trump's authoritarian ambitions. With in an exclusive new interview with the Daily Caller, Trump was asked whether he'd be comfortable seeing former FBI Director James Comey and former CIA director John Brennan arrested live on television as part of his administration's new focus on the Russia election interference investigation. His response would not bother me at all.That attitude pushing perceived en punishing perceived enemies while rewarding devotees is exactly what we're seeing ...

I want to start with this morning's PC figure. Of course, coming in, being in line with expectations on pretty much every single measure. What do you make of a print such as that where there were no surprises at all when you're thinking about how the Fed is actually going to proceed next month.So with everything that we're dealing with this year, a number that comes as expected is actually not a bad thing. We're hoping for a quiet day, so it comes in as expected. To your point, it is above the 2% inflation ...

Let me bring in Scott Alvarez who's the former general counsel to the Fed board of governors and also a Georgetown law adjunct professor. When you were advising the board, did this question of what constitutes cause ever come up for you. Well, no, it did not.Um, in fact, this is the first time a president has attempted to remove a governor from the Federal Reserve in the Federal Reserve's history. Remove them for cause. So, this is a denovo issue for the Federal Reserve.I I I'm looking at the government's r ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net income for Q2 2025 amounted to ARS 173 billion, a 70% decrease from the same quarter last year, with a return on average assets of 1.9% and a return on average shareholders' equity of 9.5% [10][11][18] - The primary surplus reached 0.4% of GDP, while the overall surplus was 0.2% of GDP, with primary revenues increasing by 37.7% year over year [4][5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Banco Galicia's profits were ARS 98 billion, Naranja X contributed ARS 32 billion, Galicia Asset Management contributed ARS 27 billion, and Galicia Seguros contributed ARS 13 billion [10] - The net interest income decreased by 36% compared to the previous year, while net fee income increased by 30% [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Private sector deposits in pesos averaged ARS 89.1 trillion in June, increasing by 10.6% during the quarter and 69.1% year over year [7] - The exchange rate averaged ARS 11.81 per dollar in June 2025, reflecting a 23.5% devaluation year over year [6] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company successfully completed the merger with Galicia Mas, enhancing its market share in loans and deposits by approximately 2.5% [8] - The strategy focuses on prioritizing lower-risk segments in credit granting and stabilizing asset quality post-merger [18][20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management anticipates a temporary margin compression in Q3 due to increased short-term interest rates and volatility, with expectations for stabilization post-elections [21][66] - The company expects to see stabilization of non-performing loans (NPLs) in consumer lending by the end of Q3 [22][49] Other Important Information - The bank's total regulatory capital ratio reached 23.7%, a decrease of 50 basis points from the previous year [18] - The coverage ratio for non-performing loans decreased to 117.9%, down from 160.3% year over year [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Follow-up on guidance for loan growth and deposits - Management revised loan growth expectations from 50% to closer to 40% due to market volatility and demand changes [30] Question: Capital improvement and dividend policy - The increase in capital ratio is attributed to the merger, with a new capital ratio close to 24% expected post-integration [35] Question: Asset quality and NPL coverage - Management noted that the main impact on NPLs is from personal loans and credit cards, with a focus on safer segments moving forward [44][46] Question: Impact of higher funding costs on margins - Management expects a deterioration in margins for Q3 due to increased funding costs, with a potential recovery post-elections [66][68] Question: Corporate segment asset quality - The corporate segment is not experiencing significant changes, with NPLs remaining low at around 0.7% [78]

Fed Independence & Politicization - The industry faces the most severe challenge to Fed independence in the last two generations, potentially marking the beginning of the Fed's politicization [2] - Politicization of monetary policy, reminiscent of the Nixon era, raises expectations of higher inflation, potentially leading to a self-fulfilling prophecy [3] - Independent central banking is crucial, as politicization can lead to market instability, resembling an emerging market scenario [4][6] - The administration's disregard for established norms poses substantial risks to the national economy [15] Market Response & Economic Impact - Short-term interest rates decreased due to expectations of Fed rate cuts, while long-term interest rates increased due to inflation concerns [5] - The dollar's value may decline due to anticipated money printing by a political Fed [5] - Loss of credibility can happen quickly, similar to how a forest can be burned down in an hour after decades of growth [6] Policy & Legal Considerations - The president's proposals for monetary policy, such as cutting interest rates to around 1%, are considered outside the reasonable range of debate [8] - The Fed's independence is rooted in law and tradition, reporting to Congress and not being part of the executive branch [13][14] - Public debate between the administration and the Fed can lead to loss of credibility and rising long-term interest rates [14]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the Federal Reserve's monetary policy and its implications for the North American economy, particularly focusing on interest rate adjustments and labor market conditions. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Forecast for Rate Cuts**: The Federal Reserve is expected to initiate rate cuts starting in September, with a projected 25 basis point (bp) cut as the baseline [1][4][12] 2. **Shift in Fed's Focus**: Chair Powell has expressed increased concern over labor market risks, marking a shift from previous emphasis on low unemployment and persistent inflation [1][4][10] 3. **Rate Cut Projections**: The expectation is for two rate cuts in 2025, with a 25bp cut in September and another in December, followed by quarterly cuts in 2026, targeting a terminal range of 2.75-3.0% [4][17] 4. **Economic Growth and Inflation**: Real GDP growth averaged 1.3% in the first half of the year, with inflation expected to remain above the Fed's 2.0% target due to tariff-related price increases [7][8] 5. **Labor Market Dynamics**: The unemployment rate has remained stable at 4.2%, despite a slowdown in labor demand, indicating a complex balance in the labor market [7][11] 6. **Risks to Employment**: There is a growing concern about downside risks to employment, which could lead to higher layoffs and rising unemployment if materialized [11][12] 7. **Inflation Dynamics**: The Fed is cautious about the potential for tariffs to create lasting inflationary pressures, although current conditions do not suggest a tight labor market [11][12] 8. **Dissenting Opinions**: There may be dissent among Fed members regarding rate cuts, with some members likely to oppose the cuts based on the balance of risks [16] Other Important Considerations 1. **Data Dependency**: The Fed's decision-making will heavily depend on upcoming employment and inflation data, particularly the August employment report [15][19] 2. **Potential for Multiple Cuts**: The updated forecast suggests the possibility of several rate cuts followed by a pause, depending on economic conditions [17][19] 3. **Uncertainty in Economic Outlook**: The evolving economic landscape introduces uncertainty, with the potential for more aggressive cuts if a recession occurs [18][19] 4. **Market Reactions**: The Fed's communication strategy indicates that any adjustments in policy will likely involve more than a single rate cut, signaling a cautious approach [14] This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy outlook and its implications for the economy.

Summary of Deutsche Bank Group Research on Japan Economic Perspectives Industry/Company Involved - **Industry**: Japanese Economy - **Company**: Deutsche Bank Group Key Points and Arguments Economic Growth Forecasts - The growth forecast for fiscal 2025 has been revised upward from 0.6% to 1.0% based on 2Q 2025 GDP figures, which showed a real GDP growth rate of 1.0% saar, exceeding market consensus of 0.3% [4][5] - The forecast for fiscal 2026 has been revised downward from 1.1% to 0.9% [4][5] - Growth forecasts continue to exceed consensus estimates [5] Tariff Negotiations and Economic Impact - Reciprocal tariffs with the US will be raised to 15%, while tariffs on automobiles will be lowered [4][9] - The impact of the US tariff increase on the real economy has been limited so far, with no significant change in export volumes to the US [10] - The expected impact on growth rates due to tariff changes is -0.1% for fiscal 2025 and 2026 [9] Inflation and Consumption Trends - Despite high inflation, real private consumption is on a moderate upward trend, primarily due to increases in real employee compensation [15] - Real employee compensation remains below pre-pandemic levels, with a significant negative real wage gap of about -4% in 2Q 2025 [15][23] - Inflation is expected to decelerate moderately but is unlikely to fall significantly below 2% [23] Monetary Policy Outlook - No significant changes in the Bank of Japan's (BoJ) stance on interest rate hikes are expected unless Takaichi becomes prime minister [4][46] - An interest rate hike is anticipated in October, influenced by the political calendar and economic measures [46][47] Political Landscape and Future Cooperation - The political situation will be influenced by the outcome of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) presidential election, with potential cooperation with opposition parties depending on the outcome [38][42] - If Prime Minister Ishiba remains in office, cooperation with the Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) or the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) is likely [38][42] Fiscal Policy Uncertainty - High uncertainty exists regarding future economic measures, with a placeholder assumption of a supplementary budget of about 15 trillion yen [34] - Further increases in defense spending sought by the US government are not reflected in the current economic outlook [34] Employment and Wage Dynamics - The number of employees has increased at an annual rate of about 0.7-0.8%, contributing to the rise in real employee compensation [15] - Nominal wage increases of at least 3% are deemed necessary to address the negative real wage gap [15] Long-term Economic Policy Trends - The long-term trend in economic policy is shifting from monetary policy to fiscal policy, focusing more on household-oriented policies rather than corporate-oriented ones [45][42] Other Important Content - The presence of a Liberal Democratic Party presidential election will significantly influence future political cooperation and economic policy direction [38][42] - The economic measures and their scale will be critical in shaping the economic outlook, with potential implications for fiscal policy and public sentiment regarding inflation and consumption [34][23]