Chair Powell, do economic conditions and the balance of risks no longer warrant a restrictive policy setting. So I don't think we can say we can say that. What we can say is this, that over the course of this year, we've kept our policy at policy at a restrictive level and people have different views, but a clearly restrictive level, I would say so.And we were able to do that over the course of this year because the labour market was in very solid condition with strong job creation and all those things. I t ...

Chair Pal, do economic conditions and the balance of risks no longer warrant a restrictive policy setting. So I don't I don't think we can say we can say that. What we can say is this that over the course of this year we've kept our poly policy at a restrictive level and and people have different views but a clearly restrictive level I would say.So and we were able to do that uh over the course of this year because the labor market was in very solid condition with strong job creation and all those things. I ...

Economic Policy Insights - The current economic conditions suggest that a restrictive policy setting may no longer be warranted, although the policy has remained at a restrictive level throughout the year [1] - The labor market has shown solid conditions with strong job creation, but recent revisions indicate a decline in job creation numbers from April to August, shifting the risks towards inflation [2] - The balance of risks between inflation and economic growth is moving towards equality, indicating a potential shift towards a neutral policy stance [3] Interest Rate Decisions - There was no widespread support for a 50 basis point rate cut, reflecting a consensus that the current policy is appropriate given the economic context [4] - The company believes that the policy has been effective this year, with a cautious approach to changes based on evolving tariffs, inflation, and labor market conditions [5] - The recent evidence of softening in the labor market suggests that while risks are not fully balanced, they are moving towards balance, justifying a change in policy direction [5]

Market Reaction - The markets are experiencing a bounce, with the S&P turning positive and the Dow increasing from 260 to over 400 points [1][10] - The S&P 500 saw a rise of approximately 15 points after initially being down by 6 points [10] Federal Reserve Statement - The Federal Reserve issued a cautious statement acknowledging inflation and the labor market, resulting in a 25 basis point cut [3][8] - The Fed's median projection indicates an expectation of 50 basis points more in rate cuts for 2025, aligning with market expectations [5][7] Dissenting Opinions - Steven Myron, a recent appointee from the Trump administration, dissented in favor of a half-point cut, highlighting differing views within the committee [5][6] - Among the 19 officials, nine see two additional cuts in 2025, while six officials do not anticipate any further reductions [6][7] Market Trends - The 10-year bond yield decreased from 4.05% to 4.01%, indicating a shift in investor sentiment [11] - The market's initial reaction was characterized by volatility, but it ultimately settled into a rally [9][10]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve has cut its benchmark fed funds interest rate by 25 basis points to a range of 4%-4.25%, the lowest since December 2022, in what is termed a "risk management cut" [1] - The Fed acknowledged a moderation in economic growth and a slowdown in the job market, attributing this primarily to changes in immigration [1][2] - There is no widespread support for a larger rate cut, and the Fed is cautious about further aggressive cuts [1] Group 2: Labor Market Indicators - The August employment report indicated a significant weakening in the labor market, with only 22,000 jobs added and the unemployment rate rising to 4.3%, the highest since 2021 [2] - Revisions to previous employment reports showed that fewer jobs were created than initially reported [3] Group 3: Market Reactions - Following the rate cut, Bitcoin's price initially rose by about 1% but later fell, currently trading at $115,092, down approximately 1.5% since the decision [4] - Major U.S. stock indexes briefly rose after the announcement but subsequently fell sharply, with gold showing a similar pattern [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The updated dot plot from the Fed suggests a potential for another 50 basis points of cuts ahead, indicating a more dovish stance [3] - The market is now focused on the implications of the Fed's dot plot, which may create an asymmetric setup for Bitcoin, potentially leading to new highs by year-end [6]

Economic Outlook - The Federal Reserve is expected to recalibrate its stance due to shifting risks towards a weaker labor market, suggesting that restrictive policy is not justified [3][12] - There is a consensus that a series of rate cuts, potentially totaling 75 to 100 basis points, is warranted by the current economic conditions, particularly the weak labor market data [4][7][5] Labor Market Analysis - The labor market is showing signs of weakness, with job creation stagnating outside of the healthcare sector, prompting concerns about broader economic implications [5][6] - The Fed aims to preempt further labor market deterioration by moving towards a neutral policy stance [6][12] Tariff Impact - Companies are adjusting to higher tariff rates by absorbing costs rather than increasing hiring, which contributes to labor market weakness [7][8] - The anticipated economic stimulus from tax cuts is expected to materialize in the future, but is not currently impacting the economy [8] Federal Reserve's Strategy - The Fed is not advocating for an easy monetary policy but rather seeks to transition from a restrictive stance to a neutral one to better respond to economic developments [12][13] - The timing of the Fed's actions is critical, as immediate adjustments are necessary to sustain economic expansion into 2026 [9]

If you look at uh the CME Fed watch, 96% chance, a 25 basis point cut. It seems to be the consensus we're going to get something. Is 50 basis points possible.I don't think so. I think you get 25 basis points. And I think the the more uh interesting dynamic surrounding this afternoon's Fed meeting is how many descents do we get.We potentially could get three descents. That's the first time since 1988. the dissents will be regarding what you're speaking toward, which is we should get a 50 basis point cut.So, ...

What are you expecting actually from the Fed. 25 basis point cuts. And then we have a bigger idea of what happens next.I think you're going to get 25 basis point cuts. You could get some dissents here because you've had the signals for 50 basis points from a few of the governors. But 25, I think, is really done.After the August employment report came out, it became very clear that they're going to really take a look at the employment mandate. But I would just still emphasize that inflation remains sticky he ...

Drop your 🇺🇸 FED rate cut predictions25 BPS or 50 BPS ? ...

We actually think that the Fed will be delivering a hawkish cut today simply because the market is pricing in almost 70 basis points of rate cuts excuse me, this year about 150 basis points for the cycle. And we think the Fed at most is going to send a signal that they'll be cutting twice this year and only twice next year. So in relation to where the market is priced, we do think that that's going to come across as somewhat hawkish.Now, we don't think that Powell is going to tell the market that it's wrong ...