These odds are gonna be VOLATILE this week.We finally get data on CPI, jobless, and more after a full month without it.If the data is bad, 0.25bps cut will runIf the data is good, no change will runI lean the 0.25bps cut to run, especially given where cuts were priced just 45 days agoThe lack of data has seriously skewed these markets n the potential for another rate cut this year. ...

Welcome back to opening bell. Want to get you ready for the trading day. And look, the rest of the year is upon us.Dave Maza, CEO Roundhill Investments is with us. And look, we saw people step in on Friday. It was a little bit of chaos last week back and forth.We saw the VIX jump. Um, but we ended up with somewhat of a mixed week. The NASDAQ was slightly lower while the S&P and Dow squeezed out gains.What did you think of folks stepping in, buying dips, and this action now this week ahead. >> Yeah, well, it ...

Economic Outlook & Concerns - Allianz 首席经济顾问 Mohamed El-Erian 表示，并未看到有损系统完整性的因素 [1] - El-Erian 讨论了下一任美联储主席应坚持的经济目标类型，以及让他夜不能寐的经济风险 [1] - 对人工智能对劳动力市场的影响以及市场泡沫形成的持续猜测表示关注 [1] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - 美国国会推动并通过了一项新的融资法案，以重新开放联邦政府，为美联储在 12 月 FOMC 会议前审查大量经济数据打开了大门 [1] - 前美联储副主席 Lael Brainard 表示，她将支持现任美联储官员在通胀和劳动力市场风险的背景下再次降息 [1] - Guggenheim Partners 认为美联储不能完全脱离政策监督 [1] Key Speakers & Their Affiliations - Mohamed El-Erian 是 Allianz 首席经济顾问 [1] - Lael Brainard 曾任国家经济委员会 (NEC) 主任和奥巴马政府时期的财政部国际事务副部长 [1] - Anne Walsh 是 Guggenheim Partners 的管理合伙人兼 Guggenheim Partners Investment Management 的首席投资官 [1] Market Commentary & Analogies - 报告提到了 Jamie Dimon 等华尔街主要人物对信贷市场存在“蟑螂”的担忧 [1] - El-Erian 使用“白蚁”来比喻可能侵蚀系统完整性的因素 [1]

Oh, if you add all this together, the momentum trade unwinding perhaps not just in AI but across sectors and uncertainty about a December rate cut. With all that, where does that leave investors. Well, CFR research chief investment strategist Sam Stovall and HSBC Global Private Banking and Wealth Management CIO Jose Rasco join me now.Uh, welcome guys. Jose, what kind of rotation are you seeing here. >> Well, I think there's concern about the Fed, right.No question about it. And I think it's well placed beca ...

Market Overview - A significant wave of volatility has hit Wall Street due to Federal Reserve commentary, casting doubt on a potential rate cut in December [1][3] - The credit market is experiencing instability, leading to a rare wholesale in high-grade bonds [1][20] - The market is currently awaiting a cluster of economic data releases that could influence volatility [5][6] Economic Indicators - October data is expected to be noisy and affected by the government shutdown, with full employment being a key challenge [2][4] - The absence of recent economic data has created uncertainty regarding the economy's performance, with expectations of a flood of data in the coming weeks [3][6] - Fed officials are signaling caution in their approach, indicating limited room to ease policy without becoming overly accommodative [4][10] Federal Reserve Outlook - The probability of a rate cut in December is currently estimated at 50%, a significant drop from near certainty a month ago [3][8] - Fed members are divided on the future direction of rates, with some advocating for higher rates while others suggest lower [8][9] - The Fed is likely to pause on rate cuts as they seek to understand economic developments better [10][12] Investment Grade and High Yield Market - The investment-grade bond market is seeing a significant amount of cash on the sidelines, with a total supply of $1.5 trillion expected this year [26][28] - There is a notable increase in skepticism regarding new investment-grade bonds, with no companies currently considering new issues [24][25] - High-yield investors are anticipating an uptick in the market over the next 12 months, despite recent pullbacks [34][35] Sector-Specific Insights - The AI and tech sectors are expected to see substantial funding in the coming year, but current market volatility is causing pushback on specific issuers [23][24] - The outlook for capital-intensive sectors, such as utilities, is under scrutiny as investors reassess the long-term viability of investments [30][31] - The high-yield market is experiencing a shift in sentiment, with investors becoming more cautious about large issuers potentially facing downgrades [34][35]

>> FROM NEW YORK CITY, I’M SCARLET FU. BLOOMBERG REAL YIELD STARTS RIGHT NOW. >> COMING UP A MASSIVE WAVE OF VOLATILITY HITS WALL STREET TRIGGERED BY FED COMMENTARY THAT LEAVES THE DECEMBER RATE CUT IN DOUBT.UNSTEADY CREDIT MARKET LEADS TO A RARE WHOLESALE IN HIGH GRADE. WE START WITH THE MARKET. >> IF THE FED DOESN’T DELIVER THEACTICS WILL BE PRICED.THAT IS THE SPARK THAT LIT THIS. THERE’S A BROAD A YOU RAY OF RISK. THEY HAVE IT FIGURE OUT WHAT THEY DO TO PRIORITIZE.THE OCTOBER DATA WILL BE VERY NOISY AND ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The FOMC is divided on future rate cuts, with some members favoring additional cuts and others believing they have done enough [4] - The differing views within the FOMC reflect disagreements on how to conduct policy given the current economic outlook [5] - Market participants anticipate further rate cuts, influenced by forecasts that consider macroeconomic fundamentals and potential political influence on the Federal Reserve board [10][12] FOMC Communication and Decision-Making - FOMC participants engage in public speaking to communicate and attempt to convince each other regarding policy decisions [6] - The market may react adversely if the case for another rate cut is not well explained by Chair Powell [9] Economic Conditions and Inflation - The FOMC's view of economic activity and inflation is expected to remain consistent with the summary of economic projections from September [2] - Inflation remains a concern, with some FOMC members arguing that it is not at the desired level and that there are upside risks [5] Future Considerations - A new chair and voting members will join the FOMC next year, potentially influencing future policy decisions [10] - Political factors, such as the White House's ability to appoint a majority to the Federal Reserve board, could significantly impact future interest rate policy [12]

whether an even greater rotation is coming. Now joining us for the hour Josh Brown, Carrie Firestone, Bill Baruch, Jenny Herrington. We'll check the markets where the big story is, the fact that we are down across the board.And if we throw up what the interest rate complex looks like, that could very well be a culprit today. No doubt about that. As we've got rates Get from the Fed in December.That's that seems to be the story today. No. Yeah.I think it's actually part of a bigger story. And I was talking to ...

🔥 HOT TOPIC: Fear Takes Over as Rate Cut Odds Crash. Is crypto ready for a no-cut December?Both @doodles & @Sasha_why_N are already reacting to it on CMC.Want real time insights from creators? Check here 👇https://t.co/REny5sPrXo ...

"While the Fed continues to have access to various data sources, such as direct conversations with businesses in its local districts, the available picture of the economy's health was murkier than usual due to the government shutdown,†Thornburg portfolio manager and managing director Lon Erickson said in a recent market insight report. "Powell will likely downplay any impact, as market confidence in decision-making is important, but any mistake could trigger volatility.†Prior to the second rate cut, the F ...