风险提示 本周观点 后续政策不及预期风险；中美关系变化风险；内容上线及表现不及预期风险；宏观经济运行不及预期风险；AI 技 术迭代和应用不及预期风险；政策监管风险。 敬请参阅最后一页特别声明 1 咖啡茶饮：1）咖啡：高景气维持；行业具备β性红利，各品牌依旧积极开店；库迪结束 9.9 元活动，整体咖啡 行业价格竞争趋缓，但需关注开店带来的阶段性稀释效应。2）茶饮：略有承压；短期平台 AI 流量大战，奶茶成 为引流品，补贴以相对趋缓的节奏退坡，数据依旧具备韧性。 电商：持续承压。2025 年实物商品网上零售额 130923 亿元，增长 5.2%，占社会消费品零售总额的比重为 26.1%， 受国内消费环境影响，整体国内电商表现平淡；但关注 AI 带来的电商广告推荐提效。 流媒体平台：音乐流媒体平台为内需驱动的优质互联网资产，高性价比悦己消费，规模效应驱动盈利杠杆释放， 我们建议持续关注音乐订阅平台，估值具备性价比。 虚拟资产&资产交易平台：加密市场催化有限，资本流入疲软，币价承压。本周中国人民银行、中国证监会等八 部门联合发布《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》；中国证监会公布〔2026〕1 号文件：《 ...

美国科技巨头大举"撒钱"的举动正令资本市场感到忧虑。 上周，在亚马逊宣布计划向人工智能（AI）及相关基础设施领域注资2000亿美元后，股价于6日早盘应 声下跌近9%。然而，市场的冷静反应并未浇灭这场AI投资热潮。根据谷歌、微软、亚马逊和Meta在近 日披露的最新资本支出计划，这四大科技巨头在2026年的开支总额预计将高达约6500亿美元。 在理论定义中，AGI被视为AI的终极状态，意味着系统能在会计、法律等多个白领专业领域达到并取代 人类的智力水平。 而驱动这些巨头"不计成本"投入的核心逻辑，很大程度上寄希望于通用人工智能（AGI）的实现，以及 随之而来的数万亿美元潜在回报。正如硅谷风投机构红杉资本（Sequoia Capital）合伙人卡恩（David Cahn）所言："唯有AGI的实现，才能证成未来十年这一量级的投资提案。" 然而，业内对AGI实现路径正涌现出越来越多的怀疑。彭博行业研究高级中国科技分析师罗伯特·李 （Robert Lea）在接受第一财经记者采访时表示，鉴于当代AI模型存在根本性的逻辑缺陷且方法论较为 单一，仅仅通过扩展现有模型，即行业目前盛行的做法，不太可能实现AGI。 模式识别并非真智 ...

图片来源： Moonshots Cathie Wood ， ARK Invest 创始人与 CEO ，被称为 " 女版巴菲特 " 。 Peter H. Diamandis ， XPRIZE 基金会创始人兼执行主席、奇点大学联合创始人 。 2026 年 1 月 27 日， Cathie Wood 做客《 Moonshots 》播客。在本次访谈中，她围绕《 Big Ideas 2026 》，与 Peter H. Diamandis 等人探讨了 AI 、比特 币、能源转型、自动驾驶等前沿领域，分享了技术融合对经济增长的颠覆性影响及未来趋势预测。 Z Highlights AI 革命将驱动 GDP 增长超 7 个点 Peter H. Diamandis ： 欢迎大家来到 Moonshots ，本期是《 WTF Just Happened in Tech 》的特别节目。今天我们请到了 ARK Invest 的创始人兼 CEO—— Cathie Wood ，来一起解读 ARK Invest 的《 Big Ideas 2026 》。这是我们心目中全球第一的科技播客，帮助你为未来做好准备，迎接即将席卷而来的未来 巨变。 Ca ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. stock market experienced significant volatility this week, with a market value loss exceeding $1.5 trillion, raising concerns about the sustainability of economic growth and the impact of AI on existing companies [1] Group 1: Market Volatility - The market saw a sharp decline affecting various sectors, including small-cap stocks, precious metals, and digital asset-related companies, with software stocks experiencing the most severe fluctuations since the pandemic [1] - Investors are increasingly cautious, as highlighted by Mike Dickson from Horizon Investments, who noted that market corrections often occur in areas with the highest valuations and positions [1] - Thomas Thornton from Hedge Fund Telemetry LLC warned that the market is filled with traps, indicating a precarious investment environment [1] Group 2: Small-Cap Stocks - Small-cap stocks faced a double blow as investors shifted from overvalued tech stocks to those benefiting from economic recovery, but recent labor market data indicated concerning weakness, particularly affecting domestic-focused small-cap companies [2] - The Russell 2000 index's year-to-date gain of 7.6% now appears overly optimistic, as consumer pressure mounts due to deteriorating labor market conditions [2] - A surprising strong consumer confidence report temporarily halted sell-offs, but the Russell 2000 index had already dropped over 5% from recent highs [2] Group 3: Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices have become highly volatile, with major mining companies like Newmont Corp. seeing significant price fluctuations, while smaller firms like Discovery Silver Corp. experienced dramatic increases [3] - The transition of precious metals from stable investment vehicles to speculative trading tools has raised concerns for investors seeking safe havens during turbulent times [3] - Daily and weekly volatility levels are inconsistent with risk-averse investment strategies, as noted by Sameer Samana from Wells Fargo [3] Group 4: Impact of AI on Equity Capital Markets - Concerns over AI potentially disrupting various sectors have led to significant declines in software companies like Docusign Inc. and Salesforce Inc., prompting investors to explore other areas at risk of automation [4] - A report indicated that 72% of S&P 500 companies have acknowledged AI as a "significant risk," affecting banks, travel stocks, and the entire small-cap sector [5] - The potential for destructive disruption from AI could slow down equity capital market activities, including mergers and acquisitions, IPOs, and stock and bond sales [5] Group 5: Historical Context and Caution - The recent downturn in the tech sector has evoked memories of the internet bubble, with value stocks outperforming growth stocks, reminiscent of past market corrections [6] - Historical patterns suggest that investors must exercise discipline and diversify their portfolios, especially when dealing with high-flying stocks [6] - Brian Reynolds from Reynolds Strategy LLC emphasized the importance of caution for investors enamored with AI concept stocks that have seen substantial price increases [6]

After the chaos of a software-led sell-off that bled into techs stocks at large and dragged the broader market, here are a few strategies from Wall Street pros that might help you navigate the next meltdown. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite was down 2% for the week, despite Friday's comeback. The iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF is down more the 12% in the same period.But the market rotation is on, and analysts say this week's plunge isn't the end of the bear market. Instead, it is a moment to asse ...

Market Overview - The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged above 50,000 points for the first time, closing at 50,115.67, up more than 1,200 points or 2.5 percent, reflecting a broadening market and confidence in growth stories [2][13] - The index has shown steady growth over the past two and a half years, with notable exceptions during specific political events [8][13] Company News - Amazon was the biggest loser on the Dow, falling 5.6 percent after announcing a $200 billion capital spending plan for AI capabilities in 2026, raising concerns about potential returns on such massive investments [5][13] - Other companies like Caterpillar, 3M, JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Amgen, and Nvidia saw gains of at least four percent, indicating positive market sentiment towards their performance [5][13] - Stellantis shares plunged over 24 percent after announcing a €22 billion ($26 billion) write-down due to misjudging the shift to electric vehicles, with shares down around 80 percent over the past two years [9][13] - Rio Tinto's shares finished flat after dropping merger talks with Glencore, which would have created a $260 billion mining firm, while Glencore's stock climbed 1.5 percent [10][13] - Toyota's shares increased by two percent after raising profit and sales forecasts for the current fiscal year despite US tariffs [11][13] Investment Insights - Analysts suggest that the massive investments in AI by companies like Amazon will benefit infrastructure, banking, and other sectors, indicating a ripple effect across the market [5][6] - Confidence in earnings growth is noted, with expectations that equity investors will be rewarded, although volatility is anticipated [6][13]

全球资产大爆发。 当地时间2月6日（周五），美股三大股指全线大涨，截至收盘，道指大涨2.47%，涨超1200点，报50115.67点，首次站上5万点关口；标普500指数上涨 1.97%，创出自去年5月以来最大单日涨幅；纳指上涨2.18%。 经济数据方面，当地时间2月6日，美国密歇根大学发布的初步调查数据显示，美国2026年2月份消费者信心指数初值为57.3，环比高于1月份的终值56.4， 同比低于2025年2月份的终值64.7。 密歇根大学发布的2月份当前经济状况指数初值为58.3，环比高于1月份的终值55.4，同比低于去年2月份的终值65.7。消费者预期指数初值为56.6，环比低 于1月份的终值57，同比低于去年2月份的终值64。 同时发布的未来一年通胀预期从1月份的4.0%降至2月份的3.5%，为2025年1月以来最低读数。长期通胀预期则从1月份的3.3%微升至2月份的3.4%，连续第 二个月小幅上升。 调查显示，虽然目前消费者信心指数处于2025年8月以来最高水平，但近几个月的月度增幅较小，从历史角度来看，整体信心水平仍然非常低。高物价和 失业风险上升导致对个人财务状况恶化的担忧仍然普遍存在。 美联储戴 ...

【导读】美股集体收涨，道指历史性突破5万点关口，芯片股普涨，中国资产拉升；现货金、银暴涨 大家好，今天是周六，一起聚焦海外市场最新收盘表现与本周整体走势。 美东时间2月6日周五收盘，美国股市大幅收涨，道指历史性突破5万点关口，热门科技股普涨，中概股收涨。 据报道，美国总统特朗普对此发文：道琼斯工业平均指数历史上首次突破50000点。祝贺美国！ 来看具体市场情况—— 美国三大股指集体上涨 昨夜今晨，美股三大股指大幅收涨。截至收盘，道琼斯工业平均指数涨2.47%，报50115.67点；标普500指数涨1.97%，报6932.3点；纳斯达克综合指数涨 2.18%，报23031.21点。 从周度表现看，三大指数涨跌不一。其中，纳指累跌1.84%，道指累涨2.5%，标普500指数累跌0.1%。 板块方面，昨夜今晨美股大型科技股拉升，万得美国科技七巨头指数涨1.02%。 个股方面，英伟达大涨7.81%，现报185.41美元/股。 | 序号 | | 名称 | 现价 | | | 总市值1 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | - | NVDA | 英伟达(NVIDIA ...

The Dow Jones industrial average crossed 50,000 for the first time, as ballooning tech valuations, robust corporate earnings and hopes of lower interest rates drive it to new highs.Leading stock markets on Wall Street came under pressure earlier this week as technology stocks fell amid scrutiny of extraordinary levels of investment into artificial intelligence.Cryptocurrencies including bitcoin have also suffered sharp falls in recent days, although they recovered some lost ground on Friday.But US equities ...

The S&P 500 was up 1.7pc and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a new high of 49,938 points after climbing 2pc.However, stocks then started to rebound as investors bought the dip, with the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite rising 2pc.More than £18bn was wiped off London-listed software and data giants over the past week as concerns rose about artificial intelligence disrupting the industry.Thanks for joining us. That’s al we have for today.Andy Jassy, the company’s chief executive, said the tech giant’s capital ...