Labor Market Analysis - Private sector job growth swung positive in October to 42,000 from negative 29,000, with larger companies contributing more than midsize and smaller companies [1] - Alternative data, like that from ADP, suggests pre-existing trends in the labor market are continuing at a similar rate, with modest job creation and moderating wages [3] - Labor demand may not be as strong as desired from a cyclical perspective, indicating rates could be lower [4] - Changes to job creation levels due to policy changes like immigration are considered output gap neutral, as additional people both work and consume [6][7][8] - Low levels of growth may result from changing border policy, but monetary policy doesn't automatically respond to this [9][10] Monetary Policy Considerations - Monetary policy aims to balance supply and demand, avoiding both inflation and deflation [7] - Expansionary supply-side policies, like full expensing provisions from the tax bill, incentivize investment in new factory equipment and structures, pushing demand higher in the short run and expanding the supply side in the longer run [12][13][14] - Regulations shape the structure of the economy by influencing production possibilities and industry composition [15] - Monetary policy responds to the output gap, the outlook for inflation, and changes in the neutral rate [18] - An increase in national savings typically leads to lower interest rates [23] Inflation and Interest Rates - One perspective is that current policy is too restrictive, and a faster move to a neutral rate is preferred to avoid undue harm to the job market [25][26][28] - Tariffs are not viewed as a significant driver of inflation, and shelter/housing market inflation is expected to decrease more quickly than some colleagues anticipate [27][28] - High interest rates may already be causing a recession in parts of the economy, particularly housing [30] - The median projection from the September meeting suggested a third rate cut this year, implying a cut in December [35] - Core services inflation, when adjusted for imputed services like portfolio management fees, is closer to 2%, specifically 23%-24% [39][46] - Shelter disinflation is a critical factor in the inflation outlook, with expectations of benign shelter inflation due to market rents running at approximately 1% [47][49] Trade and Economic Uncertainty - Increased uncertainty over the tariff and trade environment could negatively impact the economy [21] - A ruling against the president's authority to issue tariffs could increase uncertainty, potentially pressuring growth and hiring [20][21]

Federal Reserve Governor Stephen Miran on Wednesday described data that showed employment at US companies increased in October as “a welcome surprise,” though he reiterated interest rates need to be lower https://t.co/FgXF2BVrdR ...

Note to the Fed from @claudia_sahm: Yes, inflation remains a concern and unemployment is relatively low, but cutting interest rates will help lower-income households and small businesses (via @opinion) https://t.co/O6oltfR9NU ...

RT Crypto Investor (@altcoinGemAlert)JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Bessent says the Fed should continue to cut interest rates if inflation is dropping. ...

🇺🇸 TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: If inflation is dropping, Fed should be cutting rates https://t.co/eaJbO0DR2t ...

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 Treasury Secretary Bessent says the Fed should continue to cut interest rates if inflation is dropping. ...

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said the US central bank should continue cutting interest rates at its next meeting in December, citing the risk of a continued slowdown in hiring https://t.co/hLINCDkjKx ...

Stephen. >> Yeah. More hawkish comments this morning from the Fed.Dallas Fed President Lori Logan saying this economic outlook did not call for cutting interest rates. She says she will find it difficult to cut rates again in December. Not a voter this year, but a voter next year.She says that is true unless inflation is falling faster or the labor market is cooling more than appears apparent now or than forecast. The labor market, she says, remains balanced. It's cooling slowly.inflation is too high and it ...

Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Lorie Logan said she did not support the US central bank’s decision to cut interest rates this week https://t.co/Cmp0uADfe7 ...

Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid said he voted against the US central bank’s decision to lower interest rates this week because he’s concerned that economic growth and investment will put upward pressure on inflation https://t.co/mNjJhG92Fg ...