夏莹莹（投资咨询证号：Z0016569） 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年6月20日 南华贵金属日报: 金震银调 【行情回顾】 周四贵金属市场金震银调，最终COMEX黄金2508合约收报3387.4美元/盎司，-0.61%；美白银2507合约 收报于36.36美元/盎司，-1.5%。 SHFE黄金2508主力合约收报781.24元/克，-0.49%；SHFE白银2508合约 收8819元/千克，-1.91%。目前市场聚焦于中东局势进展，美国接下来是否可能直接军事介入以伊冲突。 【降息预期与基金持仓】 据CME"美联储观察"数据显示，美联储7月维持利率不变的概率为89.7%，降息25个基点的概率为 10.3%；美联储9月维持利率不变的概率为31.7%，累计降息25个基点的概率为61.7%，累计降息50个基点的 概率为6.7%；美联储10月维持利率不变的概率15.4%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.3%，累计降息50个基 点的概率为34.9%，累计降息75个基点的概率为3.4%。长线基金看，SPDR黄金ETF持仓维持在947.37吨； iShares白银ETF持仓维持在14763吨。 ...

18 June 2025 | 8:32PM EDT US Daily: June FOMC Recap: Taking Higher Tariffs on Board, Cautiously (Mericle) Jan Hatzius +1(212)902-0394 | jan.hatzius@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alec Phillips +1(202)637-3746 | alec.phillips@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC David Mericle +1(212)357-2619 | david.mericle@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Ronnie Walker +1(917)343-4543 | ronnie.walker@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Manuel Abecasis n FOMC participants raised their inflation forecasts and lowered their GDP growth fore ...

Core Viewpoint - The Company reported a decline in net asset value (NAV) and total return for the six months ending March 31, 2025, reflecting challenging market conditions and investment performance [3][4][13]. Financial Highlights - NAV per share decreased from 40.55p to 34.48p, representing a total return of -8.19% [4][13]. - Market capitalization fell from £150.60 million to £124.25 million [4]. - Share price also declined from 42.20p to 33.80p, with a share price discount to NAV per share of 1.97% [4]. - Dividends paid per share increased from 1.50p to 2.75p during the period [4][6]. Investment Activity - The Company invested £3.6 million in qualifying companies during the period, maintaining 92.29% of its portfolio in qualifying investments [6][30]. - An offer for subscription launched on October 9, 2024, aimed to raise up to £20 million, with £5.4 million raised by issuing 14 million shares [6][31]. Performance of Qualifying Investments - Positive contributors included Aquis Exchange (+95.8%, +£1.71 million) and Cohort (+26.1%, +£1.12 million) due to increased defense spending [15][16]. - Negative contributors included Kidly (-100.00%, -£1.26 million) which went into administration, and Zoo Digital (-74.3%, -£1.14 million) which issued a disappointing trading update [20][21]. Non-Qualifying Investments - The non-qualifying portfolio saw a decline of £1.27 million, with notable losses in WH Smith and Hollywood Bowl due to a weaker economic outlook [27][28]. - The fixed income portfolio returned +£0.35 million, offsetting some losses from direct equities [29]. Market Outlook - The UK economy is expected to see a modest GDP growth of +1.0% in 2025, supported by increased public spending despite inflation concerns [10][39]. - The AIM index has shown resilience post 'Liberation Day', indicating potential growth opportunities despite ongoing market volatility [12][40]. Portfolio Structure - The Company maintained a strong liquidity position with net cash of £11.7 million and a focus on recurring revenue, which represented 82% of total revenue [26][29]. - The portfolio's weighting to qualifying investments increased to 58.4%, while cash weighting decreased to 7.6% [36].

Joining us now to talk about it all, Loretta Mester, former Cleveland Fed president, now adjunct professor of finance at the University of Wharton, also a CNBC contra contributor. And we are darn glad that you are here, Loretta. If you were still on the Fed, what would your decision and expectation for rate cuts be? Yeah, I would have probably already been at one cut as opposed to two. So I may not have changed my SEP. Remember the SEP, the one that we had before was in March and that was before the April 2 ...

today, not with rates, but a lot around it, certainly oil. I think that's a good question. Steve Liesman, thank you.All right. So your next three guests all agree that the Federal Reserve will not cut rates today, but that does not mean there is no story because what's going to happen, as we just talked about still a little cloudy. Let's bring in Wells Fargo's Paul Christopher Societe Generale's Subadra Rajappa and Northern Trust Carl Tannenbaum.Great panel. Subadra. I will begin with you.Your I would imagi ...

Uh BTI's Jonathan Kinsky says the potential for a pullback is elevated. Tom Lee says stocks are going to rally post FOMC. What do you think.So I think as we move towards the end of the second quarter and midyear, you have this looming battle between resiliency and complacency. Do we have a resilient market or is there too much complacency in the market. Both.Well, I'm in the We do have a resilient market. You could still have complacency. Well, but think about from a perspective of positioning.If you're in ...

This morning, our next guest does expect a rate cut to come in September. Joining us this morning to discuss is Evercore ISI Vice Chair Krishna Guha. Christian, welcome back. Good to see you again. Great to see you. Doesn't sound like you expect any change today, even on the dots. But what kind of soft guidance do you think he might give about the fall? Look, I think that the Fed's going to stay very much in wait and see mode today. Now, we've had some interesting data come in, right? The top tier data for ...

据人民日报，当地时间6月10日，商务部国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长李成钢在伦敦谈到中美经贸磋商机制首次会议时表示，中美双方进行了专业、理性、深 入、坦诚的沟通。双方原则上就落实两国元首6月5日通话共识以及日内瓦会谈共识达成了框架。外贸环境依然难言稳定，市场持续将不确定性纳入考虑当 中。 数据方面，美国5月CPI同比增2.4%，核心CPI环比增0.1%、连续第四个月低于预期；美国5月PPI与核心PPI均环比温和增长0.1%、低于预期，核心PPI增速创 近一年新低，美联储年内两次降息预期升温。5月美国PPI整体涨幅依然温和，关税尚未对消费者和企业造成更高的价格压力。然而美国企业的利润率持续承 压，表明企业正在自行消化关税成本。交易员加大对美联储降息的押注，基本预计今年将降息两次，9月份前降息的可能性为75%。美国宏观经济数据对美 元表现产生明显影响，铜价也因此受到金融属性干扰。 全球交易所库存情况来看：截至6月16日，LME铜库存较6月9日减少12850吨至10.76万吨，前期为关税政策而提前配置的铜库存已经悉数耗尽，LME市场库 存偏紧格局正在形成当中；上期所铜库存减少5461吨至10.19万吨，目前国内精炼铜显性 ...

All right, let's start with the Fed, but we've got a lot of ground to cover. Um, what are your expectations when it comes to the outlook. I think we all know there's not going to be a cut, but when we're talking about the outlook, what are you expecting and how do you see that impacting the markets in the near term.Yeah, it's a good question. I think um the focus will really be on the number of uh cuts that going to be pencileled in. Our expectation is going to be that it's going to be around two cuts still ...

Well, joining us is Emily Roland, John Hancock, investment management co-chief uh investment strategist. Emily, what's going on. How are you.What what what what's caught your uh your interest. Like you we we've pointed out insurance companies have a whole different uh sort of a view of the world at times with because you the money has to be there, doesn't it. For a lot of people.That's true, Joe. And you know, today we're obviously focused on the Fed. Thank you for having me on on Fed Day.And I think, you k ...