Economic Activity & GDP - GDP and Private Domestic Final Purchases (PDFP) numbers aligned with expectations [1] - Economic activity data, including GDP and PDFP, slowed to slightly above 1%, specifically 1.2% for GDP in the first half of the year, compared to 25% the previous year, indicating a slowdown [2] Labor Market - Labor market remains balanced across various statistics, including quits, job openings, and the unemployment rate, similar to levels from a year prior [3] - Job creation is slowing, but so is the supply of workers, maintaining a labor market balance, though this balance is due to declines in both supply and demand, suggesting downside risk [4] - The primary focus is on inflation and maximum employment, with the labor market appearing solid [5] - Downside risks to the labor market are apparent [5] - Equilibrium job growth should be assessed by monitoring the unemployment rate, as both demand and supply for workers are decreasing in tandem [6] Monetary Policy & Inflation - Weakness in interest-sensitive sectors like residential investment and commercial structures raises questions about whether monetary policy is too restrictive [1] - Inflation remains above target, even when excluding tariff effects, justifying the current monetary policy stance [5]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Open Market Committee decided to leave the policy interest rate unchanged, believing the current stance is well-positioned to respond to potential economic developments [2] - The committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 4 and 1/4 to 4 and 1/2% and to continue reducing the size of the balance sheet [8] - The current policy stance is seen as appropriate to guard against inflation risks [10] Economic Activity - Recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity has moderated [3] - GDP rose at a 12% pace in the first half of this year, down from 25% last year [3] - Payroll job gains averaged 150000 per month over the past 3 months, with the unemployment rate at 41% remaining low [4] - Business investment in equipment and intangibles picked up from last year's pace, while activity in the housing sector remains weak [4] Inflation - Inflation has eased significantly from its highs in mid-2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to the 2% longer-run goal [5] - Total PCE prices rose 25% over the 12 months ending in June, and core PCE prices rose 27% [6] - Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up on balance over the course of this year on news about tariffs [7] - Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen [9] Labor Market - Conditions in the labor market are broadly in balance and consistent with maximum employment [5] - Wage growth has continued to moderate while still outpacing inflation [5]

Core Points - Economic activity growth moderated in the first half of the year, with low unemployment and solid labor market conditions, while inflation remains elevated [1] - The Federal Reserve aims for maximum employment and a long-term inflation rate of 2 percent, amidst elevated uncertainty regarding the economic outlook [2] - The target range for the federal funds rate is maintained at 4-1/4 to 4-1/2 percent, with ongoing assessments of incoming data and risks [3][4] Monetary Policy Implementation - Effective July 31, 2025, the interest rate on reserve balances is set at 4.4 percent, with open market operations to maintain the federal funds rate within the target range [8] - Standing overnight repurchase agreement operations will have a minimum bid rate of 4.5 percent and an aggregate operation limit of $500 billion [8] - The Federal Reserve will reinvest principal payments from agency debt and mortgage-backed securities into Treasury securities, with a monthly cap of $35 billion [8]

Uh thanks thanks Chel. Um there's a lot of lean in the markets uh and not to mention uh out of the administration for a rate cut now in September. Uh is that uh expectation unrealistic at this point.So as you know today we decided to leave our policy rate where it's been which where I would characterize as modestly restrictive. Um inflation is running a bit above 2% as I mentioned even excluding tariff effects. The labor market's solid, historically low unemployment, financial conditions are accommodative, ...

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve views its current policy stance as appropriate to guard against inflation risks and is attentive to employment risks [3] - The committee is on track to wrap up any modifications to its statement on longer run goals and monetary policy strategy by late summer [4] - The Federal Reserve aims to bring inflation sustainably to its 2% goal and keep longer term inflation expectations well anchored [5] Economic Outlook and Risks - Changes to government policies continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain [1] - Higher tariffs have begun to show through more clearly to prices of some goods, but their overall effects on economic activity and inflation remain to be seen [1] - There is a risk that inflationary effects could be more persistent [2] - The Federal Reserve is well-positioned to learn more about the likely course of the economy and the evolving balance of risks before adjusting its policy stance [3] Data and Assessment - In coming months, the committee will receive a good amount of data that will help inform its assessment of the balance of risks and the appropriate setting of the federal funds rate [4]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - Inflation remains above the target set by the Federal Reserve [1] - The Federal Reserve remains committed to its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment [1] - No decisions have been made yet regarding the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting [1] Economic Outlook - Data suggests economic growth has slowed [1] - The current policy stance allows flexibility to respond to evolving economic conditions [1] External Factors - Tariffs added inflationary pressure on some goods, but the broader impact remains unclear [1]

Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve maintained the interest rate range at 425 to 450 basis points [1] - Two governors dissented, favoring a 25 basis point rate cut [1] - Nine votes supported holding rates steady [2] Economic Outlook - Economic growth moderated in the first half of the year [3] - Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated [3][4] - Inflation remains somewhat elevated [4] - The labor market is solid with low unemployment [4] Forward Guidance - The statement does not hint at an imminent rate cut in September [5] - The committee is attentive to risks on both sides of the mandate [4] - Swings in exports continue to affect the data [2]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged, maintaining the range of 425% to 450% [1] - Two governors dissented, favoring a 025% rate cut [1] - It marks the first time since 1993 that two governors have dissented [2] - Nine votes supported keeping rates on hold [2] Economic Assessment - Export fluctuations continue to impact the data [3] - Growth moderated in the first half of the year [3] - Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated [3][4] - The Fed removed "diminished" from the statement, indicating continued high uncertainty [4] - Inflation remains somewhat elevated [4] - Unemployment is low, and the labor market is solid [4] Forward Guidance - The committee has attended to the risks on both sides of the mandate [5] - The statement does not hint at an imminent rate cut in September [5]

Interest Rate Policy - The benchmark interest rate remains unchanged in a range of 425 to 450 basis points [1] - The statement omits any forward guidance regarding future rate adjustments [1][2] - The committee will continue to carefully assess incoming data, the economic outlook, and the balance of risks when considering future adjustments to the target range [3] Economic Assessment - Economic growth moderated in the first half of the year, influenced by swings in net exports [1] - Uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook remains elevated [2] - Labor market conditions remain solid, while inflation remains somewhat elevated [3] - One governor believes the labor market is on the edge [5] Dissenting Opinions - Two governors dissented, preferring a 25 basis point rate cut, marking the first time since 1993 that two governors voted against a committee decision [4]

what we can expect today in the meetings ahead. Joining us, Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolf Research, along with Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, and Andrew Scizarowski, strategic income portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management. I think that is full team coverage.Andrew, we'll begin with you. What is your expectation from the Fed today. And more importantly, what do you want to hear them say.>> No, thanks for having me. I think look the expectations are low for ...