Core Insights - Consumer sentiment dropped 5.3% month over month in September, marking a 26% decline year to date, indicating persistent pressure on households [3][6] - The "expectations" index fell 7.5% in September and is now 29% below its December 2024 level, while the "current" index decreased by 2.1% and has seen a 20% decline this year [5][6] - High inflation expectations and stretched household budgets suggest cautious future spending intent, with essentials being prioritized over discretionary spending [8][11] Consumer Sentiment Analysis - The decline in consumer sentiment reflects a broader concern about macroeconomic conditions, particularly regarding labor markets and personal finances [4][10] - 44% of respondents noted that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest level recorded in a year [6] - Personal consumption expenditures increased by 2.7% over the past year, while real disposable incomes grew only 1.9%, indicating that spending has outpaced income for eight consecutive months [6] Spending Behavior - Households are increasingly prioritizing essential expenses such as rent, groceries, childcare, and utilities, while non-essential spending is being sidelined [7][8] - The uncertainty surrounding job security and income is leading consumers to delay or downsize purchases, particularly in big-ticket categories like automobiles and vacations [9][10] - The recalibration of daily spending habits in response to economic pressures is expected to continue influencing consumer behavior in the coming months [11]

Core Insights - The dollar index fell by -0.41% due to the August core PCE price index meeting expectations, potentially allowing the Fed to continue easing monetary policy [1] - The University of Michigan's US September consumer sentiment index was revised lower to a four-month low, contributing to the dollar's losses [1] Economic Indicators - US August personal spending increased by +0.6% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of +0.5%, marking the largest increase in five months [3] - US August personal income rose by +0.4% month-over-month, also surpassing expectations of +0.3% [3] - The August core PCE price index rose by +0.2% month-over-month and +2.9% year-over-year, aligning with expectations [3] Inflation Expectations - The University of Michigan's US September 1-year inflation expectations were revised lower to 4.7% from 4.8% [4] - The September 5-10 year inflation expectations were also revised downward to 3.7% from 3.9% [4] Federal Reserve Outlook - Markets are pricing in a 90% chance of a -25 basis point rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29 [5] - Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin noted that uncertainty in the economic outlook has started to lift for US companies, indicating limited risk of further deterioration in employment and inflation [4] Currency Market Dynamics - The euro rose by +0.32% against the dollar, supported by the weaker dollar and stronger-than-expected inflation expectations from the ECB [5] - Central bank divergence is evident, with the ECB seen as nearing the end of its rate-cut cycle while the Fed is expected to cut rates approximately two more times by the end of the year [6]

Core Insights - Consumer sentiment declined by approximately 5% in September compared to August, primarily due to concerns about the job market and persistent inflation, although investors with large stock portfolios remained optimistic [2][6]. Consumer Sentiment Index - The University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index fell to 55.1 in September, which is 21% lower than the same month last year, but still above the levels of around 52 recorded in April and May [4][6]. - The decline in sentiment is attributed to rising worries about unemployment, with 65% of respondents expecting job losses, a significant increase from 35% a year ago [5]. Economic Outlook - The sentiment survey indicates a deteriorating financial outlook for consumers, as highlighted by Survey Director Joanne Hsu [5]. - Despite the decline in sentiment, consumer spending remained resilient in August, as indicated by the Personal Consumption Expenditures report [8]. Inflation and Income Growth - Inflation expectations slightly softened, yet 44% of respondents reported that high prices were eroding their personal savings, the highest level since last November [7]. - Slower income growth, combined with high prices, is expected to restrain consumer spending moving forward [8].

Hi Carl. Indeed, these are final reads for September on University of Michigan sentiment and inflation numbers and expectations for for some improvement. The reality is each one deteriorated on growth.55.1% from 55.4% is the headline number. It's still the weakest going back to May. If we look at the current conditions, 60.4% versus the midmon rate of 61.2%, 2 also lower, but it doesn't change the comp back to May. And if we look at expectations from 51.8% midmon to 51.7%, still the weakest since May as wel ...

Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations - Consumer sentiment has decreased slightly to 55.1%, below the expected 55.4% [2][3] - One-year inflation expectations have been revised down to 4.7% from 4.8% [2] Political Affiliation Trends - Republican consumer sentiment has declined from 96.3% in August to 92.4% in September, with current conditions dropping from 87.4% to 83.7% [5] - Democratic consumer sentiment shows a more positive trend compared to Republicans [5] Economic Data Overview - Recent economic data has generally exceeded street expectations, indicating a resilient economy [10] - Labor market indicators, such as jobless claims, have come in lower than expected, suggesting normalization [11] Market Reactions - Equity markets initially reacted positively to the PCE data, but have since experienced a pullback [15][16] - The PCE data showed core components indicating persistent inflation, with goods prices up 0.1%, services up 0.3%, food up 0.5%, energy up 0.8%, and housing up 0.4% [17] Future Outlook - The upcoming quarter-end options event is expected to increase market volumes and could lead to rotation in equity markets [19][20]

Core Insights - The U.S. stock market showed positive movement with major indexes rising, particularly the Dow, S&P 500, and Russell 2000, following favorable economic reports [2][3][4] Economic Data - The UM Consumer Sentiment survey for August reported a score of 55.1, slightly below the expected 55.4 [1] - Expectations for future inflation decreased, with 1-year expectations at 4.7% (down from 4.8% expected) and 5-10 year expectations at 3.7% (down from 3.9% expected) [2] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) rose by 0.2%, aligning with expectations, while Personal Income increased by 0.4%, also as anticipated [3][4] Market Performance - As of the market opening, the Dow led with a gain of 0.69%, followed by the S&P 500 (+0.46%), Russell 2000 (+0.21%), and Nasdaq (+0.17%) [3] - A significant portion of equities, 55.1% (3,054), were trading in the green, while 37.2% (2,062) were declining [3]

Core Insights - The sentiment index from the monthly survey decreased to 55.1 in September, down from 58.2 in August, indicating growing concerns regarding high prices and the labor market [1] Group 1 - The decline in the sentiment index suggests a shift in consumer confidence, potentially impacting spending behavior [1] - The concerns about high prices may reflect inflationary pressures affecting the overall economy [1] - Labor market worries could indicate potential challenges in employment stability, which may further influence consumer sentiment [1]

US Consumer Sentiment Falls to Four-Month Low on Income Worries https://t.co/vFQW7cq1QX ...

Consumer Sentiment - University of Michigan's final Consumer Sentiment Index 下降至 55.1，低于上月的 58.2 [1] - 44% 的受访者表示高物价损害了他们的财务状况 [1] Inflation Expectations - 一年期通胀预期小幅下降至 4.7% [1] - 长期通胀预期上升至 3.7% [1]

Ernest HoffmanErnest Hoffman is a Crypto and Market Reporter for Kitco News. He has over 15 years of experience as a writer, editor, broadcaster and producer for media, educational and cultural organizations. Ernest began working in market news in 2007, establishing the broadcast division of CEP News in Montreal, Canada, where he developed the fastest web-based audio news service in the world and produced economic news videos in partnership with MSN and the TMX. He has a Bachelor's degree Specialization in ...