The dollar index (DXY00) on Friday rose by +0.15%.  The dollar moved higher on Friday due to weakness in the euro and yen, which both fell to 1.5-week lows against the dollar.  Also, higher T-note yields on Friday strengthened the dollar's interest rate differentials.  Strength in stocks on Friday curbed liquidity demand for the dollar and capped its gains. The US Dec S&P manufacturing PMI was kept unrevised at 51.8, right on expectations. More News from Barchart The markets are discounting the odds at ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday rose slightly by +0.02%.  The dollar found support on Monday as stock market weakness boosted some liquidity demand for the dollar.  Also, Monday's stronger-than-expected Nov pending home sales report was supportive of the dollar. The dollar fell from its best level after the Dec Dallas Fed manufacturing outlook of general business activity unexpectedly declined. More News from Barchart The markets are discounting the odds at 16% for a -25 bp rate cut at the FOMC's n ...

There may be some progress on a Ukraine-Russia peace deal as Ukrainian President Zelensky said he expects to meet with President Trump on Sunday in Florida. Mr. Zelensky said a 20-point peace plan is 90% ready, but it depends on the meeting with Mr. Trump and can't be finalized without input from Russia and Europe. Russia reportedly said that the 20-point peace plan fails to answer many questions.The US Coast Guard forced the sanctioned oil tanker, Bella 1, to turn away from Venezuela and move out into the ...

Nov US industrial production fell -0.1% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.1%. Nov manufacturing production fell -0.4% m/m, weaker than market expectations of +0.1%.Oct durable goods orders fell -2.2% m/m, which was weaker than expectations of -1.5%. Oct durable goods orders ex-transportation rose +0.2% m/m, slightly weaker than market expectations of +0.3%. Oct core capital goods orders (ex transportation and defense), a proxy for capital spending, rose +0.5% m/m, which was slightly strong ...

Summary of the European Central Bank Update / Briefing December 18, 2025 Industry Overview - **Industry**: European Central Bank (ECB) and Eurozone Economic Outlook Key Points and Arguments 1. **Interest Rates Decision**: The ECB decided to keep the three key interest rates unchanged, indicating a cautious approach to monetary policy amid economic uncertainties [2][3][13] 2. **Inflation Projections**: - Headline inflation is projected to average 2.1% in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, and stabilize at 2% in 2028. - Inflation excluding energy and food is expected to average 2.4% in 2025 and gradually decline to 2% by 2028 [2][9] 3. **Economic Growth Outlook**: - Economic growth has been revised upward to 1.4% for 2025 and 2027, and 1.2% for 2026, driven by domestic demand and investment [3][5] - The labor market remains robust with unemployment at 6.4% in October, close to historical lows [4] 4. **Domestic Demand as Growth Engine**: Real incomes are expected to rise, and a gradual decrease in the saving rate will support consumption. Business investment and government spending on infrastructure are also anticipated to bolster growth [5][12] 5. **Geopolitical Context**: The ECB emphasizes the need to strengthen the euro area economy in light of geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine, which poses risks to economic stability [5][10] 6. **Inflation Dynamics**: - Annual inflation remained stable at 2.1% in November, with energy prices down 0.5% year-over-year and food price inflation at 2.4% [6] - Services inflation has increased, contributing to overall inflation, with compensation per employee rising at an annual rate of 4% [7][29] 7. **Risks to Economic Outlook**: - Potential risks include geopolitical tensions, global trade challenges, and volatility in financial markets, which could disrupt growth and inflation [10][11] - A stronger euro could further lower inflation, while fragmented supply chains might increase import prices [10][11] 8. **Monetary Policy Approach**: The ECB will continue a data-dependent approach to monetary policy, assessing inflation outlooks and economic data on a meeting-by-meeting basis [3][13] 9. **Digital Euro Initiative**: The ECB is progressing with the Digital Euro project, aiming to enhance financial stability in the euro area [34][35] 10. **Future Projections**: The ECB plans to review economic and inflation projections in February, considering the impact of AI and other factors on growth [17][18] Other Important Content - **Labor Market Trends**: The job vacancy rate is at its lowest since the pandemic, indicating a cooling labor demand [4] - **Investment Trends**: The contribution of exports, particularly from the chemical industry, has surprised on the upside, indicating resilience in certain sectors [18] - **Financial Stability Concerns**: The ECB acknowledges risks to financial stability due to geopolitical uncertainties and potential market volatility [12][10] - **Legal Considerations**: Discussions around the ECB presidency succession and the implications of appointing a sitting member of the Executive Board were addressed, emphasizing the need for clarity on legal frameworks [33][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the ECB's briefing, highlighting the current economic landscape, inflation dynamics, and the central bank's strategic approach to monetary policy amidst ongoing uncertainties.

EUR/USD (^EURUSD) on Wednesday fell by -0.04%. The euro was under pressure on Wednesday from a stronger dollar. The euro also moved lower after Wednesday’s Eurozone economic news showed that Nov CPI was revised lower and Q3 labor costs posted their smallest increase in three years, both of which are dovish for ECB policy. In addition, Wednesday’s unexpected decline in the German Dec IFO business conditions survey to a 7-month low was bearish for the euro.The markets are discounting a 24% chance that the FOM ...

March Euro currency (E6H26) futures present a buying opportunity on more price strength. See on the daily bar chart for the March Euro currency that prices are trending higher and this week hit a 2.5-month high. The bulls have the near-term technical advantage as “the trend is their friend.” More News from Barchart Fundamentally, a lukewarm U.S. economy and the recent Federal Reserve interest rate cut are bearish for the U.S. dollar and bullish for the Euro. The European Central Bank has remained more ...

The dollar index (DXY00) today is up by +0.17%.  The dollar is moving higher today due to weakness in GBP/USD after UK November consumer prices rose less than expected.  Also, weakness in the yen today is positive for the dollar as Japanese fiscal concerns weigh on the yen.  The dollar fell back from its best level on dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller, who said the Fed can keep cutting rates as interest rates are still 50-100 bp above neutral. The dollar is also under pressure as the Fed boosts li ...

I explained why the dollar index was stuck in neutral in a November 4 Barchart article. I concluded the article with the following: The dollar index is stuck in neutral in early November 2025, but it is consolidating near the low end of its recent trading range. The odds currently favor a continuation of the lower lows and lower highs and bearish trend in place since the high in early 2025.  More News from Barchart While the next significant move in the index is a coin toss, the odds remain tilted to t ...

The dollar index (DXY00) on Monday fell by -0.09%.  The dollar posted modest losses on Monday ahead of Tuesday's US Nov payrolls report.  The dollar came under pressure on Monday after the Dec Empire manufacturing survey of general business conditions unexpectedly contracted, a dovish factor for Fed policy. The dollar dropped to its low after Fed Governor Stephen Miran said the Fed's policy stance is unnecessarily restrictive on the economy.  The dollar recovered from its worst level after stocks declined, ...