RT Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien)Ok, let’s get one thing straight…Delinquency rates on credit card loans (or otherwise) are not a leading indicator. The ISM is not a leading indicator. PMIs are not a leading indicator. Heavy truck sales are not a leading indicator. Job openings are not a leading indicator. Consumer confidence is not a leading indicator. Small business confidence is not a leading indicator. Durable goods orders are not a leading indicator. Capital goods orders are not a leading indicator ...

Market Analysis & Prediction - The analysis suggests Bitcoin dominance is poised for an explosive move above 60% [1] - The analyst believes that understanding Bitcoin dominance is key to success in the cryptoverse [3] - The report anticipates that those expecting a rejection of Bitcoin dominance at the bull market support band will be mistaken, favoring liquidity flowing back to Bitcoin [9] - The analysis draws parallels with 2017, 2019 and 2020, noting similar patterns in Bitcoin dominance around October, suggesting a potential rally into the year-end [9][10][12][15] - The analyst argues that narrative follows price, not the other way around, minimizing the need to justify views based on the news cycle [8] Monetary Policy Impact - The analysis suggests that rate cuts by the Federal Reserve may not necessarily be bearish for Bitcoin dominance unless they fall below the theoretical neutral rate, approximated by the 2-year yield (around 35%) [17][18][19][20][26] - The report notes that the market (specifically the 2-year yield) dictates the Fed's actions, and the Fed is currently behind in responding to market signals [23][24][26] - The analysis indicates that if the Fed announces the continuation of quantitative tightening (QT) on the 29th, Bitcoin dominance is likely to surge [27] Risk Considerations - The analysis acknowledges that an earlier-than-expected end to quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve could potentially invalidate the bullish outlook on Bitcoin dominance [16] - The analysis also notes that a potential government shutdown impacting the release of economic data could lead to the Fed cutting rates more aggressively (50 basis points or more), although this scenario is considered less likely due to rising inflation [21][22] Bitcoin Performance - Despite the continuous creation of new altcoins, Bitcoin pairs have been consistently declining throughout the cycle [30]

David, let's start with the inflation data. Is three, the new two, and is it going to stop this Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. I think the Fed is going to keep on kind of cutting rates is generally a better than expected report.But I think what it really shows is we have a k-shaped economy and it's sort of a k-shaped CPI report. The thing that really jumped out to me is, first of all, our rental cars coming down, there's you know, we've got a big change in demographics here and rents are. Rent ...

Michael Kopoulos, Richard Bernstein, advisers, deputy chief uh investment officer, David Seif, no more chief economist uh for developed markets. All right, General, who wants to who wants to start. So, this is probably Dave, this is probably about what you were expecting, is it not.>> Yeah, it's even a little bit softer. Um and so that that's great news for the Fed in terms of uh their ability to to cut in October, which didn't really seem that much in doubt, but also to follow the dot plot in December. uh ...

Interest rates are still way too high. ...

Core Viewpoint - Annaly Capital Management is scheduled to report its Q3 results on October 22, following a period of fluctuating U.S. interest rates [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Annaly Capital Management operates in a changing interest rate environment, with U.S. rates beginning to decline after significant increases [1] Group 2: Market Context - The yield curve is experiencing shifts as U.S. interest rates fall, indicating potential impacts on the company's financial performance [1]

Core Insights - Today's CD rates are significantly higher than the national average, influenced by the Federal Reserve's recent interest rate cuts [1][3] - The highest CD rate currently available is 4.25% APY, offered by LendingClub and United Fidelity Bank [2] - National average CD rates are at 1.70% for a 1-year term, marking some of the highest rates seen in nearly two decades due to the Federal Reserve's inflation control measures [3] Best CD Rates - As of October 20, 2025, the top CD rate is 4.25% APY, available through LendingClub for an 8-month term and United Fidelity Bank for 10- and 18-month terms [2] - Online banks and credit unions generally provide more competitive rates compared to traditional banks [3] Finding the Best CD Rates - It is advisable to shop around and compare CD rates from various financial institutions before making a decision [4] - Online banks often have lower overhead costs, allowing them to offer higher interest rates on CDs [4] - Potential investors should check minimum deposit requirements and review account terms, including early withdrawal penalties and auto-renewal policies [4]

Core Insights - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has decreased to 6.20%, marking its lowest point in over a month [1][15][17] - Mortgage rates are expected to remain stable in a tight range, with no significant downward momentum observed [17][18] Current Mortgage Rates - The current national average mortgage rates are as follows: - 30-year fixed: 6.20% - 20-year fixed: 5.83% - 15-year fixed: 5.52% - 5/1 ARM: 6.29% - 7/1 ARM: 6.36% - 30-year VA: 5.65% - 15-year VA: 5.21% - 5/1 VA: 5.60% [4] Mortgage Refinance Rates - Today's mortgage refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, although this is not always the case [3] Advantages and Disadvantages of Mortgage Types - A 30-year fixed mortgage offers lower and predictable monthly payments, but comes with higher interest costs over the loan's life [7][9] - A 15-year fixed mortgage has lower interest rates and allows borrowers to pay off their loans sooner, but results in higher monthly payments [10][11] - Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) typically start with lower rates but can lead to unpredictable payments after the initial fixed period [12][13] Market Trends - Mortgage rates are currently searching for a trend, with no clear momentum for a decrease, despite recent Federal Reserve actions [17][18]

Economic Outlook - A sharp slowdown in hiring poses a growing risk to the U.S. economy, leading to expectations of two more interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year [1][2] - The Fed's outlook for employment and inflation has not changed significantly since the September meeting, where the key rate was reduced for the first time this year [1][3] Interest Rate Projections - Fed officials forecast two additional rate cuts this year and one in 2026, which could lower borrowing costs for mortgages, car loans, and business loans [2][3] - Powell indicated that the central bank may soon halt the reduction of its $6.6 trillion balance sheet, which could impact long-term Treasury interest rates [4] Inflation and Employment Concerns - Powell expressed increased concern about the job market compared to inflation, noting that tariffs have raised the Fed's preferred inflation measure to 2.9%, but there are no broader inflationary pressures [3][6] - Rising downside risks to employment have shifted the Fed's assessment of the balance of risks [3] Criticism of Past Policies - Powell defended the Fed's bond purchases during the pandemic, which aimed to lower long-term interest rates and support the economy, despite facing criticism from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and others [5][6] - Critics argue that these bond purchases exacerbated inequality and delayed necessary rate increases as inflation began to rise in late 2021 [6]

Core Insights - Earnings estimates for the major banks are projected to increase by 10% to 30%, driven by a rebound in investment banking and strong trading performance [1][2] - Investment banking is expected to rise by 22% for the group, while trading for JP Morgan is anticipated to increase by 17% to 19% due to ongoing geopolitical tensions [1][2] - Consumer credit remains stable, with no significant issues reported, as indicated by the master trust data from credit card companies [3][11] Investment Banking and Trading - The investment banking sector has shown a significant recovery from last year's lows, contributing positively to earnings [1] - Trading volatility has been favorable, particularly in Q2, but has calmed in Q3, which may impact banks differently [4][5] - The performance gap between big banks and regional banks is notable, with big banks outperforming by approximately 16% [5][6] Credit Market Insights - Despite some concerns regarding credit, particularly in the auto sector, overall credit conditions remain resilient [9][11] - There are discussions anticipated around the impact of recent bankruptcies on credit standards, especially in private credit [10] - CEOs are expected to address credit situations during earnings calls, particularly in light of the lack of recent macroeconomic data [7][8]