Market Reaction & Rate Cut Probability - Market exuberance is noted, particularly in riskier, speculative market segments, following Powell's speech [4] - Market assigned approximately 80% probability of a rate cut in September prior to the speech, which increased to 85-86% during the conversation [4][5] - Market reactions should be considered, but the market is not always right [2][3] Inflation & Tariffs - Tariffs have begun to increase prices in some goods categories, with accumulating effects expected over the coming months [1] - Tariff inflation is likened to the "tariff Titanic" hitting the "inflation iceberg," suggesting significant impact [5] - Core inflation is projected to exceed 3% by year-end, influenced by both tariffs and service-side inflation [6] - The Federal Reserve acknowledges tariff inflation is coming through, as reflected in PPI (Producer Price Index) [11][12] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - Powell's speech emphasized balance, assessing both upside risks for inflation and downside risks for the labor market [2] - The Federal Reserve faces a dilemma balancing concerns about the labor market with rising inflation [7] - The Federal Reserve might not need to be as concerned about the labor market as expressed in the speech, given supply-side factors [7][8] - The Federal Reserve can choose to view inflation data differently and utilize various measures to justify a rate cut [12][13] Labor Market - The unemployment rate is at 42%, consistent with the rate a year prior [8]

Monetary Policy Stance - The Fed is likely to move rates down, possibly starting with a 25 basis point (0.25%) cut as early as September, viewed as an insurance cut against downside risks to employment [1][2] - The Fed will be very focused on ensuring long-term inflation expectations remain contained and consistent with 2% [2] - The current policy is viewed as modestly restrictive, allowing room to reduce restrictiveness while still addressing inflation and protecting the labor market [3] - The Fed's future actions will be data-dependent, with potential adjustments to the policy stance based on incoming data between now and the September meeting [4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is experiencing moderating demand and supply, keeping the unemployment rate low, but this balance could shift if demand weakens more than supply [7] - Significant deterioration in the labor market could prompt further rate cuts to address the issue [8] Inflation Concerns - The Fed must be careful not to give up the fight against inflation, as one-off price changes can become inflationary if monetary policy is not appropriately managed [8][9] - Balancing both sides of the mandate (employment and inflation) requires careful consideration of economic signals and policy path [9] Communication and Transparency - Fed Chair's speeches provide guidance to other committee members, offering insights into the Chair's perspective on the economy [5] - The market's interpretation of "adjusting" policy stance as plural may be incorrect, as the Fed is expected to proceed carefully [6] - The upcoming Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) will offer insights into the FOMC participants' views on future policy and economic projections [10]

RT THE HUNTER ✴️ (@TrueGemHunter)BREAKING NEWS ‼️September rate cut is a done deal.Markets about to have a HUGE pump, expecting $ETH 5000 and $BTC 120k to hit very fast ...

market, which was pricing in 65% chance that the fed would cut in September before the speech, now at 100%. Let's bring in our panel to react to what we just heard. Steve Liesman, Paul McCulley, both still with us, along with our own senior markets commentator, Mike Santoli.Steve, I want to start with you out there in Jackson Hole. Your reaction. >> Well, I have here what I've written down as four reasons why the fed may cut and one reason why it may not.So it's 4 to 1 in that regard. It may cut because the ...

Fed Chair Jerome Powell carefully opened the door to a rate cut in September. President Donald Trump says he would fire Lisa Cook if she does not resign. Listen to those stories and more on Bloomberg News Now. https://t.co/YbFWeXvVck ...

JUST IN: September rate cut odds spike from 74% to 90% during Powell's speech. 📈 ...

JUST IN: Traders add to bets on Fed rate cut in September as Powell begins speaking. ...

Breaking: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled greater concern about the job market outlook in a speech that opened the door for the central bank to entertain a rate cut next month https://t.co/8olLDfajHs ...

Market Expectations & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a potential rate cut, with initial euphoria possibly waning due to comments from a Fed president and resilient PMI data [2] - Expectations for a September rate cut have decreased to approximately 70% [3] - The market is awaiting Chair Powell's speech at 10:00 a m Eastern time for clarity on the Fed's stance, particularly regarding the labor market and inflation [1][3][4] - The investor community is particularly interested in whether the Fed will prioritize the jobs market over inflation, considering tariff-related price increases as potentially "transitory" [7] Economic Data & Analysis - Despite firming inflation, significant price increases expected from initial tariff deals have not materialized [6] - There have been massive revisions to jobs reports, including a large yearly revision of nearly 1 million jobs earlier in the year [6] - Carson Group's research indicates that historically, if the Fed cuts rates in September, the market tends to be down 1% the following month but up almost 13% the following year [9] Investment Strategies & Recommendations - The analysis suggests diversifying risk portfolios globally, by sector, and by factor, with a potential shift towards value investing [11] - Gold is suggested as a potential hedge against a weakening US dollar, especially as the Fed potentially enters a second phase of easing with GDP running at approximately 2% [12][14] - The expectation is for the Fed to implement a 25 basis points cut, primarily influenced by the labor market [11] Future Outlook - The key question is whether the market's expectation of two rate cuts by 2025 will be met or exceeded [10] - The US debt situation and its impact on the dollar's strength are significant factors influencing investment decisions [13]

What are your what are your expectations. I think all all day long we're going to talk about JP Pal and what people expect. What are your expectations for what J Pal has to say and then how does the market react.I think uh I I think uh and I thought this for quite some time. I don't expect any big uh news out of JPAL today. I think if anything uh they're going to hold back any of that good news uh for the meeting next month, right.Because look uh the markets are expecting hoping uh for a rate cut in the nex ...