Too Late Powell focused more on transient inflation than bleeding jobsSad!*Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone):*FED: MAJORITY SAW INFLATION RISK OUTWEIGHING EMPLOYMENT RISK ...

Inflation & Employment - The Fed minutes from the July meeting indicate a somewhat divided open market committee [1][2] - A majority of participants judged the upside risk to inflation as the greater of the two risks, while several viewed the two risks (inflation vs jobs) as roughly balanced [2] - A couple of participants considered downside risk to employment to be the more salient risk [2] - The Fed expects inflation to increase in the near term, with tariff effects becoming more apparent [4] - A few participants noted that tariff-related factors could lead to stubbornly elevated inflation [5] Economic Outlook - Participants observed that growth of economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, and several expect growth to remain slow for the second half [6] - Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated [3] - Some participants mentioned indicators could suggest a softening in labor demand [3] Key Factors - A decline in immigration is lowering both actual and potential output growth [6] - Increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment going forward [6] - Evidence suggests that domestic businesses and consumers are predominantly bearing the tariff costs [5]

FOMC会议纪要解读 - 美联储公开市场委员会(FOMC)会议纪要显示，关税的影响可能需要更长时间才能显现[1][4] - 市场对资产估值过高的担忧日益增长，暗示美联储意识到股票和其他资产（如房地产）的增长速度过快，多数人难以负担[2][4] - 多数观点认为通货膨胀是比就业更大的风险[3][4] 就业数据与政策影响 - 会议纪要发布于就业数据修正之前，该修正显示失业人数大幅增加，这可能影响美联储后续的决策[1][3] - 关税最终将导致商品成本上涨，并可能因企业和生产层面的成本增加而降低消费者支出[2] - 修正后的就业数据可能促使美联储重新评估就业风险，尤其是在通货膨胀相对稳定的情况下[3] 未来展望 - 市场关注杰克逊霍尔会议，预计将提供关于未来货币政策方向的线索[4]

Monetary Policy & Economic Outlook - The Fed faces a tug of war between employment/growth and inflation, striving to avoid stagflation [1] - Uncertainty prevails regarding which side (employment/growth vs inflation) poses a greater threat, leading the Fed to maintain current interest rates [2] - The Fed is potentially tilting towards a rate cut, possibly starting in September, influenced by recent softening employment numbers and declining workforce participation [3][4] - A 50 basis point cut is unlikely, as the Fed aims to maintain credibility and independence, and current data doesn't warrant such an aggressive move [6][9] - Employment data is the key indicator the Fed is closely monitoring to determine the timing and extent of potential rate cuts [12][13] Economic Factors & Market Dynamics - Tariffs' impact on inflation is still unfolding, with the value chain potentially absorbing some of the costs [11][12] - The US economy is viewed optimistically in the next 12-18 months, driven by innovation and significant investment in AI [15] - The US private sector and China are the primary forces driving AI development, with both vying for their standards to prevail [16][17] - AI has the potential to transform industries, job markets, and the central bank's reaction function, creating both winners and losers [19][20] - Breakthrough technologies like AI historically create more jobs over time, although the transition period may present employment challenges [21]

Inflation & Monetary Policy - The speaker initially anticipated rate cuts over the year, projecting inflation heading towards 2% with full employment, aligning with the FOMC's mandate [1] - Increased uncertainty and "dirt in the air," largely attributed to tariffs, have complicated the outlook [2] - The central bank is grappling with the possibility of a persistent inflation shock or stagflation, a scenario lacking a clear playbook [3] - The key question is whether the stagflationary shocks are temporary or ongoing due to new policy administrations [4] Economic Uncertainty - Tariffs are not a one-time price increase, unlike the initial theory suggested [2] - Determining a return to the pre-April 2nd path hinges on resolving the uncertainty surrounding stagflationary shocks and policy changes [4]

Employment Trends - "Mum jobs" (为有年幼子女的人群提供的灵活工作) 在中国数量增长[1] Social Commentary - 针对 "Mum jobs" 的负面评价或反对声浪也在增加[1]

Monetary Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at the September meeting [2] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) data reinforces expectations of a rate cut, focusing on the magnitude rather than the likelihood [2] - The Fed's decision to cut rates is primarily driven by concerns about employment, despite stalled disinflation [2] Dual Mandate Considerations - The Fed's weighting of its dual mandate (employment and inflation) depends on proximity to goals; with inflation closer to target, employment concerns gain importance [4][5] - Historically, the Fed tends to act more decisively when concerned about employment [4] - Some Fed speakers express reservations about inflation remaining a persistent problem [6] Risks and Uncertainties - Tariffs potentially seeping into prices could cause inflation to rise, complicating the Fed's policy decisions [8] - The Fed is willing to accept stalled disinflation to a certain extent, but dislikes it, tempering enthusiasm for rate cuts [9]

Economic Data Impact - Major economic data released this morning has negatively impacted trading futures, with the Dow dropping from +3 points to -180 points, the S&P 500 from -1 to -30 points, and the Nasdaq from +7 to -140 points [1] Producer Price Index (PPI) - Headline PPI increased by 90 basis points from 0.0% to +0.9% for July, with core PPI also rising by 90 basis points month over month [2] - Year-over-year headline PPI reached +3.3%, up from an upwardly revised +2.4% for June, while core PPI soared to +3.7% [3] Jobless Claims - Weekly Jobless Claims decreased by 3,000 to 224,000, remaining below 230,000 for six consecutive weeks [5] - Continuing Claims stood at 1.953 million, down 15,000 from the previous week, marking the 12th consecutive week above 1.9 million [6] Earnings Reports - Deere & Co. reported fiscal Q3 earnings of $4.75 per share, beating consensus estimates by 7.8%, but shares fell by 6% due to softer full-year guidance [8] - JD.com reported earnings of 69 cents per share, a 38% positive surprise, while Weibo exceeded estimates by 100% with earnings of 54 cents per share [9]

Australian employment rose by 24,500 in July, driven entirely by full-time roles https://t.co/bJUh0foUNK ...

Employment Market - UK employment plunge showed signs of easing in July [1] - Labour's tax increases for businesses may be ending the jobs market shake-out [1]