Core Insights - The current national average HELOC rate is at its lowest since late 2022, making it an attractive option for homeowners seeking cash-on-demand financial tools [1] Group 1: HELOC Rates and Market Conditions - The average monthly HELOC rate is currently 7.44%, based on applicants with a minimum credit score of 780 and a maximum combined loan-to-value ratio of 70% [2] - The Federal Reserve estimates that homeowners have $36 trillion in equity locked in their homes, indicating significant potential for second mortgage HELOCs [3] - HELOC interest rates differ from primary mortgage rates, typically based on an index rate plus a margin, with the prime rate recently falling to 6.75% [4] Group 2: Lender Flexibility and Offerings - Lenders have flexibility in pricing HELOCs, and rates can vary significantly based on credit score, debt levels, and home value [5] - The best HELOC lenders provide low fees, fixed-rate options, and generous credit lines, allowing homeowners to access their equity as needed [6] - An example of a competitive offer includes FourLeaf Credit Union's introductory HELOC rate of 5.99% for 12 months on lines up to $500,000 [7] Group 3: Usage and Payment Structure - A HELOC allows homeowners to borrow only what they need, with interest charged only on the amount borrowed [8] - Monthly payments for a $50,000 HELOC at a 7.50% interest rate would be approximately $313 during the 10-year draw period, but rates are typically variable and can increase during the repayment period [12]

Core Viewpoint - The holiday shopping season is expected to see a year-over-year sales increase of 4% to 5%, driven by consumer spending and inflation effects [1][2]. Consumer Spending - Consumer sales have consistently grown by 4% year-over-year, indicating strong consumer resilience [1]. - Real wages have risen faster than inflation, allowing consumers to continue spending [1]. Economic Dynamics - The current economic situation does not reflect a K-shaped recovery; instead, both high-income and low-income consumers are experiencing growth, albeit at different rates [1]. - The stock market has benefited the wealthy, but they tend to reinvest rather than spend, contrasting with lower-income consumers who are actively spending [1]. Home Improvement Retailers - Home Depot and Lowe's are facing challenges due to high interest rates and a slowdown in large home improvement projects, despite some activity in smaller projects [1][2]. - The outlook for Home Depot indicates a slow growth trajectory for the upcoming year, as stated in their earnings analyst meeting [2].

Group 1 - Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 20th were reported at 214,000, significantly lower than the expected 225,000, marking the lowest level since late November [2] - Continuing claims rose to 1,923,000, surpassing the 1.9 million threshold for the first time since the third week of November, indicating a potential shift in the labor market [2][3] - There are concerns regarding the accuracy of seasonal adjustments in jobless claims data, as the process can be cumbersome and may distort the figures [4] Group 2 - The Wall Street Journal highlighted that generous welfare programs might be affecting jobless claims, potentially keeping the numbers artificially low [5] - The dollar index is on track for its worst year since 2017, with current trading levels indicating a potential three-month low close [6]

Core Insights - The article discusses the current state of money market account (MMA) rates, highlighting the importance of earning competitive rates as interest rates decline following recent Federal Reserve rate cuts [1][5]. Group 1: Current MMA Rates - The national average interest rate for money market accounts is 0.58%, while top rates can exceed 4% APY, comparable to high-yield savings accounts [2]. - Quontic Bank currently offers the highest MMA rate at 4.25%, which is over seven times the national average [8]. Group 2: Impact of Federal Reserve Actions - Money market account rates are closely tied to the federal funds rate set by the Federal Reserve, which influences deposit account rates [3]. - Between July 2023 and September 2024, the Fed maintained a target range of 5.25%–5.50%, but subsequently cut the federal funds rate by a total of 100 basis points, leading to a decline in money market rates [4]. Group 3: Future Rate Expectations - Rates are expected to continue declining following the Fed's recent cuts, suggesting that savers may have limited time to take advantage of higher rates [5]. Group 4: Considerations for Savers - Money market accounts provide a balance of safety, liquidity, and better returns than traditional savings accounts, making them an attractive option for savers [6]. - Factors to consider when choosing a money market account include liquidity needs, savings goals, and risk tolerance [7]. Group 5: Safety of Money Market Accounts - Money market accounts are considered safe as long as they are opened with federally insured banks or credit unions, protecting against market risk [10].

Economic Growth and Market Performance - The U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 4.3% in the third quarter, exceeding expectations, following a 3.8% growth rate in the second quarter [1][2] - The S&P 500 closed at a record high of 6,909.79, driven by gains in tech stocks, despite most stocks in the index declining [5] - Asian markets mostly advanced, with Japan's Nikkei 225 unchanged at 50,411.10, South Korea's Kospi slipping 0.1% to 4,113.83, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gaining 0.2% to 25,818.93 [3][1] Inflation and Consumer Confidence - Inflation remains high, with the personal consumption expenditures index (PCE) rising to a 2.8% annual pace in the last quarter, up from 2.1% in the previous quarter [6] - Consumer confidence has faded further in December, indicating potential concerns among consumers regarding high prices [2][7] Commodity Prices - Gold prices rose 0.4% to $4,525.50 per ounce, contributing to a 70% increase for the year, while silver increased by 1.8% [4] - Oil prices saw a slight increase, with U.S. benchmark crude oil rising to $58.45 per barrel and Brent crude to $61.90 per barrel, amid concerns over supply disruptions in Venezuela and Russia [9] Currency Movements - The U.S. dollar fell against the Japanese yen, trading at 155.96 yen, down from 156.17 yen, as officials indicated potential intervention in the currency market [7] - The euro slipped to $1.1793 from $1.1796 [8]

For more, let's bring in Joe Leavia, counselor to the secretary of the Treasury Department. Joe, great to have you with us. Would you do you agree with that sentiment.>> I do. I mean, the thing is the GDP numbers, which we could get into, were fantastic, was all private sector led, but what struck me, Melissa, is the profound weakness in the interests sectors of the economy such as structures and residential. Structures, which are factories, by the way, they'll get a huge lift with the tax bill.uh 2026 shou ...

The roaring 20s are alive and well. That according to our next guest, Ed Yard Denny. He's the president of Yard Denny Research.He joins us now. It's good to see you. So, we were just a little delayed on the roaring 20s, maybe thanks to co and here we are about to regroup.>> Well, I think we've been doing pretty well since uh since the beginning of the of the decade. I mean, think of all the uh shocks that the economy has been hit by the pandemic, the lockdowns for two months. Uh then the social distancing, ...

Economic Growth and Market Sentiment - The GDP growth rate was reported at 4.3%, the highest since Q3 of 2023, indicating stronger-than-expected economic performance [1][9] - Personal consumption increased by 3.5%, and savings rates improved to 4.2%, suggesting robust consumer activity [10][11] - Productivity growth is at levels not seen in decades, contributing positively to economic growth and inflation management [11] Interest Rates and Market Implications - Long-term interest rates are expected to remain elevated, with Deutsche Bank indicating a significant increase in yields [1][4] - The US 10-year Treasury yield has not been below 3.5% since June 2023, and the S&P has risen over 60% during this period, showing that markets can thrive even with higher rates [14] - Global trends show rising interest rates, with Japan raising rates twice this year, reflecting a broader shift in monetary policy [4][5][6] Earnings Growth Expectations - Earnings growth is anticipated to be in the mid-teens for the upcoming year, driven by consumer spending and productivity improvements [12] - The long-term average earnings growth is around 7.7%, but current estimates may need to be revised higher due to strong economic momentum [13] Market Strategy and Positioning - Investors are advised to consider repositioning their portfolios in light of potential market volatility and elevated interest rates [15][20] - There is a suggestion to take some risk off the table, especially for those heavily invested in growth equities, to mitigate potential short-term market fluctuations [20]

Core Viewpoint - The surge in gold and silver prices is influenced by macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rates and disruptions in global trade, which affect currency flows and borrowing costs in the U.S. [2][3] Group 1: Fundamental Factors - Disruptions in global trade not only affect the flow of goods but also the flow of currency, leading to decreased foreign ownership of U.S. treasuries and increased borrowing costs [2] - The Federal Reserve faces pressure to manage deficits, which necessitates more domestic financing, impacting the ability to borrow cheaply in the U.S. [3] - The precious metals market is relatively small, making it susceptible to significant price impacts from macroeconomic changes [3] Group 2: Speculative Behavior - Speculators, who had previously focused on meme coins and digital tokens, are returning to the precious metals market, contributing to increased volatility [4] - The presence of speculators adds a layer of complexity to market dynamics, influencing both price movements and investor sentiment [4] Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Companies involved in mining focus on strong management teams and growth stages to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [6][7] - Investors are encouraged to assess their risk tolerance and make informed decisions regarding their investments in precious metals [8] - Protection strategies may lead to underperformance during bull markets, highlighting the importance of individual risk assessment [8]

Bond Market Analysis - Two-year Treasury yields show more aggressive upside holding after data release [1] - Ten-year Treasury yield faces resistance around 419 to 420, a level dating back nearly two weeks [2] - A settlement above 419 on the ten-year yield would represent a three and a half month high [2] Economic Indicators - Dollar Index initially rose upon data release at 8:30 but the general picture remains unchanged [3] - A close below 9814 on the Dollar Index would mark a two and a half month low [3] - The speaker expresses skepticism about reaching a 2% inflation rate [3] - Conflicting inflation reports exist, with some indicating hot inflation and others indicating cool inflation [4] Consumer Sentiment - Consumer confidence data is dismissed due to perceived media and administration influence [5]