Core Viewpoint - Nebius Group NV is strategically reducing its share count while enhancing its focus on AI, indicating a shift towards a more exclusive stock offering as demand for AI-related companies increases [1][6]. Group 1: Share Management and Financial Strategy - The company announced the cancellation of 40 million treasury shares and a buyback of up to 20% of its Class A shares, which is seen as a move to create scarcity and enhance shareholder value [1][3]. - Nebius has experienced a significant stock price increase of 126% year-to-date, attracting investor attention and signaling its financial strength and strategic ambition [2][5]. Group 2: Market Dynamics and Short Selling - The reduction in outstanding shares improves earnings-per-share metrics and increases ownership stakes for existing investors, creating a favorable environment for potential price appreciation [3]. - With a short interest of 7.27% and a dark pool volume indicating 32.69% off-exchange short volume, the company may experience a short-covering rally if momentum continues [4]. Group 3: AI Infrastructure and Future Growth - Nebius is not solely relying on financial maneuvers; it has operational data centers and is developing additional infrastructure, including a pilot program with Grubhub for autonomous delivery [5]. - Projected revenues for 2025 are estimated to be between $750 million and $1 billion, showcasing the company's ability to combine vision with execution in the AI sector [5].

Summary of Hedge Fund Trend Monitor Industry Overview - The report analyzes the holdings of 981 hedge funds with a total of $3.8 trillion in gross equity positions as of the start of Q3 2025, comprising $2.5 trillion long and $1.3 trillion short [9][10]. Key Points Performance Metrics - Hedge funds have achieved a year-to-date (YTD) return of +8%, with the Hedge Fund VIP list returning +15% YTD, outperforming the S&P 500 (+11%) and the equal-weight S&P 500 (+7%) [10][11]. - A recent short squeeze has led to a +13% YTD return for a basket of the most concentrated shorts, despite a 30% decline earlier in the year [2][11]. Leverage and Short Interest - Gross leverage for equity hedge funds remains elevated, ranking in the 95th percentile historically, while short interest for the median S&P 500 stock is at 2.3% of float, near the highest level since 2019 [10][24]. - The median S&P 500 stock's short interest has slightly decreased from 2.4% to 2.3% since June but remains above the long-term average [10][24]. Hedge Fund VIP List - The most popular long positions among hedge funds include mega-cap tech companies such as AMZN, MSFT, META, NVDA, and GOOGL, with TSLA rejoining the list for the first time since 2022 [10][62]. - The Hedge Fund VIP list has historically outperformed the S&P 500 in 59% of quarters since 2001, with an average quarterly excess return of 50 basis points [10][84]. Sector Allocations - Hedge funds have increased their net tilt towards the Health Care sector, despite a -7% return for the sector during Q2 2025, particularly in Biopharma [10][69]. - The largest underweight sectors include Communication Services and Information Technology, with the latter seeing a significant reduction in net tilt [10][69]. Market Dynamics - The current market environment is characterized by narrow breadth, with the median S&P 500 stock trading 11% below its 52-week high, indicating potential risks for short squeezes [29][30]. - Hedge fund crowding has been noted as a hindrance to alpha generation during the earnings season, with popular stocks underperforming relative to their earnings surprises [4][49]. Rising and Falling Stars - The quarter's Rising Stars are dominated by cyclicals, particularly in Financials, with notable increases in popularity for stocks like COF, FI, and BRO [10][75]. - Falling Stars include GOOGL and several software stocks, indicating a shift in hedge fund sentiment [10][75]. Conclusion - The report highlights the resilience of hedge funds in a volatile market, with strategic shifts in sector allocations and a focus on popular long positions. The dynamics of short interest and market breadth suggest potential opportunities and risks for investors moving forward [3][29][34].

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Core Viewpoint - Urban Outfitters, Inc. (NASDAQ:URBN) stock has experienced a 3% decline to $73.16 following a downgrade by Citigroup from "buy" to "neutral," although the price target was raised to $76 from $75. This downgrade comes just before the company's second-quarter earnings report, which is anticipated to be released on August 27 [1] Group 1: Stock Performance and Market Sentiment - The stock has a historical average post-earnings move of 11.5% over the last two years, with the last three earnings reports resulting in upward movements, including a notable 22.9% increase in May. The options market is currently pricing in a larger than usual post-earnings move of 15.4% for the upcoming report [2] - The stock reached a record high of $80.71 on August 7 but has been consolidating around this level prior to the recent pullback. Year-to-date, URBN shares are up 33% [4] - A short squeeze could potentially drive the stock to new heights, as short interest has decreased by 5.3%, yet 10.8 million shares sold short represent 18.1% of URBN's total float. It would take shorts over five trading days to cover their positions at the current trading pace [6] Group 2: Analyst Ratings and Market Expectations - Following the downgrade, six out of twelve brokerages covering URBN maintain "hold" ratings, with a consensus 12-month price target of $76.83, indicating only a 5% premium to the current price. Given the stock's 81% gain over the past year, a positive earnings report could lead to a surge in bullish analyst ratings [7] - The options market shows a significant increase in call options, with a 10-day call/put volume ratio of 6.72, which is above 93% of readings from the past year, indicating strong bullish sentiment among traders [3]

Group 1 - Short interest on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) is at the 95th percentile of its five-year range, indicating a higher level of short selling compared to the Nasdaq-100 and Russell 2000 [4] - Over the past year, SPX short interest ranks in the 75th percentile, while the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are at 26% and 66% respectively, suggesting that short sellers are more cautious about SPX than tech stocks [4] - Individual equities such as Rocket Lab (RKLB), Oklo (OKLO), MP Materials (MP), IonQ (IONQ), and AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) have consistently high short interest, indicating ongoing pessimism in these stocks [5] Group 2 - Applied Materials Inc (NASDAQ:AMAT) experienced a 14% drop in after-hours trading despite a second-quarter revenue beat, due to third-quarter revenue guidance falling short of estimates [13] - The stock opened at $161.70 after peaking at $188.24, highlighting a significant market reaction to guidance [13] - The potential for a rebound exists, as previous analysis indicated a run to $191 within four trading days after a similar situation [13] Group 3 - The value of tech stocks is increasing at twice the rate of the money supply, approaching levels seen during the dot-com bubble [14] - Despite stocks reaching all-time highs, there remains significant pessimism in the market, suggesting that this may not be the peak [14] - Institutional investors are returning, with Big Tech and its growth proxies driving market performance, although concerns about tariffs and inflation persist [14]

Core Insights - SharkNinja Inc (NYSE:SN) stock has found support in the $114-$115 range, which corresponds to its highs in 2024 and February, and has shown a year-to-date increase of approximately 20% after a pullback to the 20-day moving average, suggesting a bullish position is recommended [2] Group 1: Stock Performance and Recommendations - The stock has demonstrated a significant year-to-date lead of around 20% following a recent pullback [2] - A bullish position is being recommended based on the current support levels and stock performance [2] Group 2: Options Market Sentiment - Options traders are currently leaning bearish, with a 50-day put/call volume ratio of 1.94, indicating a potential sentiment shift that could provide tailwinds for the stock [6] - The current options are considered affordably priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 41% in the 14th percentile of the past year's readings, suggesting a favorable environment for options trading [7] Group 3: Potential for Short Squeeze - There is potential for a short squeeze back to the 130-strike call, as the equity has held the peak call open interest level [8] - The recommended call option has a leverage ratio of 7.64, indicating it will double on a 13.8% rise in the underlying security [8]

Retail Investor Performance - Retail investors have recently outperformed the NASDAQ, marking the second time since 2014 and the first full year in 2024 [1][2] - Retail investors are currently performing 3 to 4 percentage points better than the SPY [2] Top Holdings and Strategies - Retail investors' top buys include mega-cap tech names like Nvidia, Tesla, AMD, Palantir, and Amazon [3] - Retail investors have shifted towards tech AI and tech crypto themes, contributing to portfolio performance [4] - Short squeezes in these sectors, driven by retail investor buying against hedge fund shorts, have boosted returns [4] Seasonality and Trends - Historically, strong buying occurs at the beginning of the year, slowing around tax season and picking up in early summer, with a slowdown in the latter part of the year due to holidays and travel [6][7] - The typical seasonality shifted this year due to a correction in April, which retail investors capitalized on [8] - Seasonality trends suggest a potential slowdown in retail investor buying in the latter part of the year [8]

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you could be added to the list. Liesman is on the case. He'll follow, of course, as the pool is growing ever larger.Circle. You mentioned SoFi. Probably a fair amount of retail participation in those types of names.And an interesting note today out from Goldman Sachs on that very topic where they talk about how to play some of these retail heavy or meme like names at times. Kristina Partsinevelos looking at that for us today, what did you find. >> That the animal spirits are.>> Back. Scott. We're seeing ret ...

eth supply crisis is real. exchanges down to 12% while bitmine grabbed 833k eth in one month, sharpe took another 521k, and otc desks report zero inventory. when $190m in shorts get squeezed above current levels, violent repricing happens fast. ...