Core Insights - Cloudflare Inc (NYSE:NET) has shown resilience by bouncing back near its all-time high breakout and 20-day moving average, indicating potential upward momentum towards a target of 220-strike by July expiration [1] Options Activity - An unwinding of bearish sentiment in the options market could provide positive momentum for NET, as its 50-day put/call volume ratio ranks higher than 72% of readings from the past year [2] - Options are currently affordably priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 43% in the 14th percentile of its annual range, suggesting lower-than-usual volatility expectations [3] - The Schaeffer's Volatility Scorecard (SVS) for NET is at 80 out of 100, indicating that the stock has historically exceeded volatility expectations [3] Investment Recommendation - A recommended September call option has a leverage ratio of 5.2, which could double in value with a 21.6% increase in the underlying equity [4]

AND WALTER PIECYK CALLING FOR DISRUPTIVE CHANGE AT APPLE. WE BEGIN WITH STOCKS LOWER AS PRESIDENT DONALD TRUMP FLOATS A HIGHER GLOBAL TARIFF RATE. JOSE MANEYA WRITING "VOLATILITY IS HERE TO STAY. STAY INVESTED IN LOOK FOR THE RIGHT DIVERSIFICATION." JOSE JOINS US NOW.I WANT TO PICK UP ON THE FIRST LINE. VOLATILITY IS HERE TO STAY. WHY IS THAT.JOSE: WE ARE AT AN ALL-TIME PEAK IN TERMS OF THE NOISE IN THE MARKET. OUR TEAM ADDED 26 OR 27 POLICY CHANGES OR CYCLES THAT IMPACTED OR JOLTED THE MARKETS. THE MARKETS ...

Market Stability - US Treasury market volatility gauge fell to its lowest level in nearly three-and-a-half years [1] - The decline in volatility suggests the market is stabilizing after months of turmoil [1]

Core Viewpoint - EQT Corp is experiencing a pullback from its record high, but still maintains a strong year-to-date performance and potential for recovery due to bullish signals [1][2]. Group 1: Stock Performance - EQT Corp is currently down 1.5% at $54.06, following a peak of $61.02 on June 23 [1]. - The stock has a year-to-date gain of 17.4%, with support at $52 likely to mitigate further losses [1]. Group 2: Technical Indicators - EQT is within one standard deviation of its 126-day moving average, having traded above this trendline in at least eight of the last ten trading days [2]. - Historically, similar conditions have led to a 60% chance of the stock being higher one month later, with an average gain of 7.1% [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment - Short-term options traders are exhibiting bearish sentiment, as indicated by a put/call open interest ratio of 1.36, ranking in the 92nd percentile of annual readings [3]. - A potential unwinding of this pessimism could provide additional support for EQT's stock [3]. Group 4: Options Market - Options are currently seen as an affordable strategy for investors looking to capitalize on EQT's future movements, with a Volatility Index of 33% in the 9th percentile of its annual range [4]. - This low volatility expectation suggests that options traders are anticipating minimal price fluctuations in the near term [4].

Core Viewpoint - Chewy (CHWY) stock experienced a significant decline of over 20% after reaching a two-year high of $48.62 on June 6, primarily due to an 11% drop following earnings on June 11, but is currently testing a historically bullish trendline [1] Group 1: Stock Performance - CHWY is trading within one standard deviation of its 80-day moving average, having closed above this trendline in eight of the last ten sessions [2] - Historical data indicates that similar signals have led to a 78% chance of CHWY being higher one month later, with an average gain of 10.9% [3] - From its current price of $38.68, a similar gain would eliminate its 9.3% quarter-to-date deficit and extend its 15.4% year-to-date lead [3] Group 2: Technical Indicators - CHWY's 14-Day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is around 33, indicating it is in "oversold" territory, which has historically preceded rallies [3] - The stock is experiencing a potential short squeeze, with short interest up 7.7% and 15.51 million shares sold short, accounting for 7.3% of the total float [5] Group 3: Options Market Sentiment - The 10-day put/call volume ratio for CHWY is 0.68, indicating a higher level of pessimism among options traders compared to the past year [6] - Options are currently affordably priced, with a Schaeffer's Volatility Index (SVI) of 38% in the low 7th percentile of its annual range, suggesting a potential premium-selling strategy [7]

Tech Sector Analysis - Tech earnings continue to print well into the double digits, reaching all-time highs, driven by fundamentals rather than just multiple expansion [1] - The value of tech in portfolios is significant, especially with tariff uncertainty, making US growth exposure valuable [2] - Overweighting tech in portfolios can be justified if earnings continue to print and multiples expand, particularly if a tariff-induced slowdown occurs [3] - Quality active management is crucial within the tech sector, specifically within the "Magnificent 7" portion [4] Tariff Impact and Economic Outlook - The market is still awaiting the bite of tariffs, with a wide range of potential outcomes [5][6] - Commentary on consumer behavior and business investment decisions is important in assessing the impact of tariffs [6] - Focus should be on how tariff rates on major partners (Canada, Mexico, China) affect the economy, while monitoring GDP resilience [8] - There are concerns about the lower cohort, with negative year-on-year card spend and light comps in certain sectors [7] Investment Strategy - A balanced approach in a multi-asset portfolio is currently most appropriate [10] - Mid-single-digit yields on core fixed income are competitive with mid-single-digit earnings yields on equities, given elevated multiples [11] - The strategy is to remain patient, vigilant, and opportunistic, waiting for the next bout of volatility [12] - US growth is expected to be the dominant driver of 10-year Treasury yields in the long term, with yields in the mid-4% range commensurate with US growth [14]

Market Trends & Global Financial System - Investors are wary of longer-dated debt due to market volatility [1][4] - The financial system is repricing from a unipolar to a multipolar system [2] - Central banks are prioritizing financial stability over price stability, leading to higher inflation [3] Investment Strategies & Asset Allocation - Investors should consider hard assets like gold and private credit [3][4] - It's better to stay closer to home and position for upside in markets like equities or commodities [5] US Economic Outlook & Fiscal Policy - Tariffs won't generate enough capital to sustain the deficit [2] - The US may face austerity measures, including spending cuts, potentially starting in 2026 [2][5] - Voters are showing less tolerance for fiscal profligacy [6] - The US can continue spending at a clip of 6-7%, but eventually needs to find ways to fund the Treasury, cut spending, or depreciate the currency [7]

US dollar volatility may have settled down in recent weeks, but analysts at Goldman Sachs see plenty of reasons to think it may start trading as a “riskier” currency again https://t.co/AsrkK69OTg ...

Short-term volatility in Europe’s natural gas market dropped to the lowest level in nearly four years as ample supply overshadows concerns about potential demand spikes across the globe https://t.co/gbK86tZwdo ...

M&A Market Dynamics - Oppenheimer upgraded Microsoft to outperform with a $600 price target, citing AI revenue as a major driver [1] - Early in the year, M&A activity was hindered by market volatility, making it difficult to finalize deals [4][5] - Antitrust scrutiny is perceived to be more pragmatic under the current administration compared to the previous one [6][8] - The current administration is seen as more willing to negotiate and find solutions to get deals approved, contrasting with the prior administration's approach [9] - The market has stabilized from a volatility perspective, leading to expectations of increased M&A activity [9][11] Antitrust and Regulatory Environment - The previous administration was viewed as employing outdated antitrust theories and hindering deal-making [7] - The approval of the T-Mobile deal with Sprint by the current administration is cited as an example of a pragmatic approach that benefits consumers [8] - The Hewlett Packard deal for Juniper, approved with divestitures, demonstrates the current administration's willingness to negotiate [9] - Anti-corporate sentiment was perceived to have influenced antitrust decisions in the past [11][12] - While the current administration is populist and aims to protect consumers, it is also taking a pragmatic approach to antitrust [12][13]