Donald Trump's attacks on the Fed are not just about its chairman, Jerome Powell. In fact, they're not really about Jerome Powell at all. The attacks are about whether we still believe America's central bank should be insulated from political interference.It's about turning one of the most trusted financial institutions in the world into a partisan weapon. And it's understandable if you don't think that much about the Fed at all. But the consequences of Trump's relentless attacks on Powell are more dangerou ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the Federal Reserve (Fed) and its leadership, particularly focusing on Fed Chair Jerome Powell and the implications of potential political influences on monetary policy. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Presidential Influence on Fed Leadership** The president's remarks about potentially removing Fed Chair Powell raise questions about the nature of such a removal, whether it would be "at will" or "for cause" [1][10][15]. 2. **Supreme Court's Role** The Supreme Court's decision in Trump v. Wilcox may protect Fed governors from being removed at will, indicating a unique status for the Fed compared to other federal agencies [1][11]. 3. **Structure of the Federal Reserve** The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members, including seven governors nominated by the president, which limits the president's ability to influence monetary policy directly [2][8]. 4. **Terms of Governors** Governors serve a 14-year term, with the possibility of reappointment, which means the president has limited opportunities to influence the Board's composition during their term [2][6]. 5. **Historical Context of Leadership Roles** The powers of the Chair and Vice Chair are not significantly greater than those of regular governors, but they historically receive considerable deference from other committee members [3][14]. 6. **Potential Legal Challenges** If the administration attempts to remove Powell "for cause," it could lead to a lengthy legal process, which may negatively impact market perceptions [15][17]. 7. **Impact of Political Interference** Analysts believe that reducing the Fed's independence could lead to higher inflation risks and increased long-term interest rates, adversely affecting economic activity [16][17]. 8. **Historical Precedents** The historical record suggests that political interference has previously led to poor monetary policy outcomes, particularly in the late 1960s and early 1970s [16]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Demotion of Leadership Roles** There is uncertainty regarding whether the administration can demote a governor from their leadership position, as the Federal Reserve Act does not explicitly provide "for cause" protection for these roles [12][14]. 2. **Recertification of Regional Reserve Bank Presidents** The presidents of the regional Reserve Banks are recertified every five years, which is typically a formality, but could be influenced by the current administration [7]. 3. **Public Perception and Communication** The president's public remarks on monetary policy can influence perceptions, although historically, Fed actions are dictated more by economic conditions than by presidential influence [9]. 4. **Long-term Economic Implications** Any reduction in the Fed's independence could lead to market participants demanding greater compensation for inflation risks, which could further complicate the economic outlook [17].

Our next guest says politicizing the Fed puts the F FOMC in a no-win situation for his insight on the Trump pal relationship. Let's bring in Roger Ferguson, former Fed vice chairman as well as a CNBC contributor. Uh Roger, one of the things that and it's good to see you. One of the things we've talked about is that the more you exert pressure on the Fed and J Pal uh to do something you want, it puts them in a position where it's less likely might make it make it less likely that they would do it even if you ...

I am curious about this idea of there not being any damage. I mean, even if Jay Powell isn't removed prior to his term, the idea that we've planted the seed, or at least the White House has planted the seed, that somehow he's incompetent, somehow that his policy choices have somehow been a mistake, and that we're going to right that not necessarily through data, but simply by picking somebody that we think is ideologically aligned with the president's view. Does that not in itself itself change the expectat ...

Fed Independence & Market Impact - Dismissal of the Fed chair could potentially trigger a crash in the bond market, the dollar, and the equity markets [1] - The Fed's independence signals monetary policy stability to both the US and global financial markets [1] - The Fed chair's decisions are intended to be independent of political influence [2][3] - The Fed chair's term is designed to be independent of the president's term [2] Risks of Undermining Independence - Undermining the Fed's independence could negatively impact the markets [4] - The Fed's independence is considered a valuable asset to the United States and its markets [4]

Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warned that President Donald Trump’s preferred monetary policy would trigger a surge in expectations for inflation https://t.co/n6DyWFj8pl ...

Monetary Policy & Central Bank Independence - Central bank independence is crucial for achieving stable economic outcomes, especially low and stable inflation [3][4] - Markets would be concerned if central bank independence were threatened [4] - The Fed leadership likely believes tariff effects won't cause prolonged high inflation, especially given the less tight labor market compared to 2022 [8] - The FOMC holds a range of views regarding the appropriateness of lowering interest rates while tariff effects are present [11] Economic Outlook & Data Analysis - Recent data suggests the labor market doesn't require significant rate cuts, and underlying inflation trends are moving towards 2% [5] - Goldman Sachs anticipates three rate cuts later this year, potentially starting in September, due to a relaxed view on inflation [5][6] - Consumer spending appears somewhat softer when adjusted for tariff-driven price increases [14] - Tariffs are expected to slow the pace of economic growth due to their function as taxes and the uncertainty they create [14] - While tariffs may lead to slower consumption and final demand growth, other factors like bank earnings, M&A, and IPO activity suggest increased business and consumer confidence [15] - The economy is not expected to enter recessionary territory [15] - Growth for the year is expected to be in the low 1% range, below the trend pace of around 2% [19]

>> Welcome back to Squawk Box. President Trump saying he has no plans to fire Fed Chair Jay Powell, though he has been toying quite publicly with that idea. Senator Elizabeth Warren has been defending the chairman's role at the FOMC.And Senator Warren joins us this morning. She is the lead Democrat on the Banking Committee. Good morning to you.We just had a guest on in Kevin Warsh. Some someone who folks have speculated about potentially taking that job. He openly talked about the idea of regime change.And ...

Monetary Policy & Interest Rates - The Fed's hesitancy to cut rates suggests a doubt in their inflation-fighting credibility [3] - A rate cut is seen as the initial step towards correcting the balance, aiming for a robust real economy [19] - The speaker advocated for a rate cut in 2020, prior to the Fed's actions, and criticized the Fed's 2018 rate hike plans amidst a market downturn [10][11] - The speaker believes the Fed maintained zero interest rates and purchased $100 billion in assets monthly during a period of rising payrolls and significant congressional spending [11][12] Fed Credibility & Independence - The credibility deficit is perceived to lie with the current Fed incumbents [5] - The market and global investing community need assurance of the Fed's independence from presidential influence [6] - The speaker emphasizes the importance of experience, particularly during financial crises, in establishing credibility at the Fed [9] Financial Conditions & Real Economy - Financial markets are currently experiencing loose conditions with IPO markets rebounding and credit spreads narrowing [17] - The housing sector is nearing a recession, with households and small businesses facing challenges in accessing credit [18] - The speaker suggests reducing the Fed's involvement in fiscal and political matters to redistribute liquidity to the real economy [18] AI & Productivity - The rapid advancement of AI technology is expected to bring productivity gains [19][20] - There are concerns that AI-driven productivity gains could potentially weaken the jobs market [19] - The US is expected to lead in the AI revolution, potentially widening the growth gap between the US and other economies [22] Education - The K-12 education system is identified as a potential weakness, needing improvement to effectively integrate young talent with new technologies [22][23]

Anything left unsaid, anything that we need to give extra emphasis to. Do you think when it comes to President Trump's criticism of Chair Powell and how this still sits in the market, I was wondering whether we get any clues from what happens at the short end of the U.S. Treasury curve as to how much Fed independence there is, I suppose how much the two moves on criticism from the White House. I think that's a great way to look at it in terms of like we did see the tear come lower but didn't completely coll ...