Core Insights - Monarch Casino & Resort (NASDAQ: MCRI) saw a stock surge of 20% on July 17, 2025, reaching a new 52-week peak, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 [2] - The company reported record Q2 2025 adjusted EBITDA of $51.3 million, a 16.8% year-over-year increase, exceeding consensus estimates by $12.8 million [3] - Despite the stock rally, Monarch remains reasonably valued compared to the S&P 500, with a price-to-sales ratio of 3.0 and a price-to-earnings ratio of 25.6 [4] Financial Performance - Casino revenue grew by 12.1% due to strong demand and efficiency improvements from a $100 million renovation at Atlantis, while hotel revenue decreased by 3.1% [3] - Q2 net income increased by 19.1% to $27 million, with earnings per share (EPS) growing by 21% to $1.44 [3] - The company returned capital to shareholders through a $0.30 dividend and $19.8 million in stock buybacks [3] Valuation Metrics - Monarch's three-year revenue compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is 7.1%, surpassing the S&P 500's 5.5% [4] - The company has an operating margin of 17.9% and a net income margin of 14.1%, indicating strong profitability [4] - Monarch's debt-to-equity ratio is only 0.9%, significantly lower than the S&P 500 average of 19.4% [5] Market Sensitivity - Monarch stock has shown significant volatility during economic downturns, with notable declines of 41.8% during the 2022 inflation shock and 75.1% during the 2020 COVID crash [6][7] - Despite historical volatility, the company's fundamentals support a long-term investment outlook [7]

Group 1 - The analyst has been involved in fundamental analysis of publicly listed companies since 2020, including Covestro, Signify, Alibaba, Verizon, and China Mobile [1] - The analyst's background as an accountant at a Big-4 accounting firm provides expertise in analyzing annual reports and financial information [1] - The ability to assess whether a stock is undervalued or overvalued is crucial for making informed long-term investment decisions [1] Group 2 - The analyst is open to suggestions for interesting companies to analyze and does not focus on any specific sector [1]

Core Viewpoint - Altria Group's stock is experiencing a significant decline following a negative rating from Jefferies, despite a generally positive market trend [1][3]. Group 1: Stock Performance - Altria's stock price fell by 4.1% as of 2:30 p.m. ET, with a maximum decline of 4.5% earlier in the trading session [1]. - Despite the current pullback, Altria's stock has increased approximately 24% over the past year [1]. Group 2: Analyst Coverage - Jefferies initiated coverage on Altria with an underperform rating and set a one-year price target of $50 per share, indicating a potential downside of about 12.5% [3]. - The lead analyst, Edward Mundy, believes that Altria's valuation has become stretched following its recent stock price increase [3]. Group 3: Market Trends - Altria is facing a potential secular decline in smokable tobacco products, with consistent declines in unit sales for cigarettes in recent years [4]. - The company has been able to offset some declines in cigarette unit volumes through price increases [4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Altria is focusing on increasing demand for smoke-free products and has seen some recent successes in this area [5]. - The company's current valuation stands at approximately 10.6 times this year's expected earnings, with a dividend yield of around 7.2% [5].

Group 1: Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) - Bill Ackman has sold 85% of his peak stake in Chipotle over the past seven years, reducing his holdings from 144,123,150 shares in June 2018 to 21,541,177 shares by March 2025 [6][9][10] - Chipotle's stock has outperformed significantly, gaining 562% since mid-2018, which is 431 percentage points above the S&P 500 during the same period [10] - The company's current forward P/E ratio stands at 40, which is considered high given the recent slowdown in comparable restaurant sales, including a reported decline of 0.4% in the March-ended quarter [13][14] - Chipotle's innovation and premium positioning in the restaurant sector have contributed to its valuation, but there are concerns about the sustainability of this growth amid inflationary pressures [12][14] Group 2: Uber Technologies (UBER) - Ackman has acquired 30,301,161 shares of Uber, making it the largest holding in Pershing Square's portfolio, representing almost 19% of invested assets [17] - The global addressable market for ride-sharing is projected to grow from $87.7 billion in 2025 to $918.2 billion by 2033, indicating a potential tenfold increase [18] - Ackman praises Uber's management under CEO Dara Khosrowshahi for transforming the company into a profitable growth machine [19] - Uber's current forward P/E ratio is 27, and its price-to-sales ratio is 4.4, which is significantly higher than its main competitor Lyft, raising questions about the justification for this premium [20][21] - The success of Ackman's investment in Uber will depend on how well the company manages new competition and maintains its pricing power [22]

Core Viewpoint - BJ's Wholesale Club is positioned to capitalize on the growing wholesale retail market, which is expected to expand by 50% by 2033, despite facing competition from larger players like Costco and Walmart's Sam's Club [2][3]. Group 1: Company Overview - BJ's Wholesale Club has over 7.5 million paying members and 255 club locations as of Q1 2025, making it the smallest among the 'Big Three' wholesale clubs in the U.S. [5][3] - The company plans to open 25 to 30 new stores over the next two years, which would exceed the total openings of the previous three years combined [6]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, BJ's reported net sales of $5 billion, a 4.7% year-over-year increase, and EPS of $1.14, surpassing expectations of $0.91 [7]. - BJ's gross margin expanded by 30 basis points year-over-year, and EPS grew over 34% year-over-year [7]. - The current P/E ratio for BJ's is 25.39, significantly lower than Costco's 55.75, indicating a more attractive valuation [4][16]. Group 3: Market Position and Competition - Costco has over 79 million paying members and operates 896 stores, significantly outpacing BJ's in scale and revenue [3][8]. - BJ's comp sales grew less than 3% in Q1 2025, while Costco's adjusted comp sales grew 8% year-over-year, highlighting the competitive pressure BJ's faces [9]. - Despite this, BJ's shares have increased by 27% over the last 12 months, outperforming Costco's 14% gain [13]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts have a 12-month price target for BJ's at $116.12, suggesting a 7.27% upside from the current price of $108.25 [15]. - BJ's is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.6% through 2033, indicating potential for healthy competition in the wholesale sector [15].

Core Viewpoint - EOG Resources' stock is currently trading at approximately $120, which is below historical averages despite strong fundamentals, making it an attractive investment opportunity [2][11] Financial Performance - EOG Resources has a multi-basin, low-cost portfolio with over 10 billion barrels of oil equivalent in accessible resources [3] - The company returned approximately $806 million to shareholders through share buybacks in Q1, reducing its share count by about 7% over the last three years while maintaining a growing dividend [3] - EOG's revenues have seen a slight increase, growing at an average rate of 3.0% over the last three years, but have decreased by 0.2% in the last 12 months [5] - Quarterly revenues decreased by 7% to $5.7 billion from $5.9 billion year-over-year [6] Profitability Metrics - EOG Resources' operating income for the past four quarters was $8.3 billion, with an operating margin of 35.6% [6] - The company's operating cash flow during this period was $12 billion, indicating a high OCF margin of 49.3% [6] - EOG's net income for the last four quarters stood at $6.1 billion, resulting in a net income margin of 26.0% [6] Valuation Comparison - EOG Resources has a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 2.9, compared to 3.1 for the S&P 500, and a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.2 against the benchmark's 26.9 [5] - The price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio is 12.4, in contrast to 20.9 for the S&P 500 [5] Financial Stability - EOG Resources' debt stood at $4.7 billion, with a market capitalization of $69 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio of 6.8% [8] - Cash and cash equivalents amount to $6.6 billion of the total assets of $47 billion, leading to a strong cash-to-assets ratio of 14.0% [8] Resilience During Downturns - EOG stock has historically performed worse than the S&P 500 during downturns, with significant declines observed during the inflation shock in 2022 and the COVID pandemic in 2020 [9][10] - The stock has shown a tendency to recover fully from past crises, indicating potential for future recovery [10] Overall Assessment - EOG Resources is positioned as an attractive investment due to its low valuation and strong financial metrics, despite some concerns regarding its performance during market downturns [11][13]

The second trading day of the week was a good one for New Oriental Education & Technology Group (EDU 13.07%) shareholders. On the back of an analyst's recommendation upgrade, their stock surged more than 13% higher in price. That absolutely crushed the S&P 500's (^GSPC 1.11%) 1.1% increase.Inexpensive and attractive, says prognosticatorThat move was made by J.P. Morgan, in the person of analyst DS Kim. That morning, Kim changed his recommendation on New Oriental to overweight (buy, in other words) from his ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb9.62 per share based on a 2.22x 2025E P/B [18] - The investment rating for Baoshan Iron & Steel is "Buy" with a target price of Rmb8.2 per share based on a 0.85x 2025E P/B [22] - The investment rating for Tianqi Lithium is "Hold" with a target price of HK$23.0 for H-shares and Rmb26.26 for A-shares [24][27] Core Insights - The report indicates cautious market expectations regarding demand recovery in the aluminum sector in China, with a near-term pecking order of steel > aluminum > lithium > copper > gold > battery > thermal coal > cement [1] - Total aluminum production in China for the week of June 12-18, 2025, was 845kt, flat week-over-week (WoW), and up 3% year-over-year (YoY) [2] - Total aluminum inventory in China stood at 722kt on June 19, 2025, reflecting a 1% increase WoW but a significant 38% decrease YoY [3] - Apparent aluminum consumption in China was 849kt during the same week, down 6% WoW but up 5.8% YoY for the year-to-date [4] Production Summary - China's total aluminum production year-to-date reached 20.9 million tonnes (mnt), representing a 3.2% increase YoY, while aluminum billet production was 8.4mnt, up 6.2% YoY [2] - Aluminum billet production for the week was 365kt, flat WoW, and up 9% YoY [2] Inventory Summary - The total inventory of aluminum ingots was 493kt, down 3% WoW and 40% YoY, while aluminum billet inventory was 229kt, up 9% WoW but down 30% YoY [3] - The inventory levels are lower than the same period in 2021-2024 on a lunar calendar basis [7] Consumption Summary - Apparent consumption of aluminum ingots was 885kt, down 3% WoW but up 1% YoY, while aluminum billet apparent consumption was 329kt, down 7% WoW but up 3% YoY [4] - Year-to-date apparent consumption of aluminum in China reached 21.6mnt, reflecting a 5.8% increase YoY [4]

Core Viewpoint - Momentum investing focuses on "buying high and selling higher" rather than traditional strategies of "buying low and selling high" [1] Group 1: Momentum Investing Strategy - Momentum investors often face challenges in determining the right entry point, as stocks may lose momentum when their valuations exceed future growth potential [2] - Investing in bargain stocks that have recently shown price momentum can be a safer strategy, utilizing tools like the Zacks Momentum Style Score to identify potential opportunities [3] Group 2: ODP Corp. Analysis - ODP Corp. has shown a price increase of 0.3% over the past four weeks, indicating growing investor interest [4] - The stock has gained 11.8% over the past 12 weeks, with a beta of 1.32, suggesting it moves 32% higher than the market [5] - ODP has a Momentum Score of A, indicating a favorable time to invest based on momentum [6] - The stock has received a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy) due to upward revisions in earnings estimates, which attract more investors [7] - ODP is trading at a low Price-to-Sales ratio of 0.07, meaning investors pay only 7 cents for each dollar of sales, indicating a reasonable valuation [7] Group 3: Additional Investment Opportunities - Besides ODP, there are other stocks that meet the criteria of the 'Fast-Paced Momentum at a Bargain' screen, suggesting further investment opportunities [8] - Investors can explore over 45 Zacks Premium Screens tailored to different investing styles to identify potential winning stocks [9]

Core Viewpoint - Coca-Cola's stock has risen 15% this year, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 2% increase, raising concerns about potential overvaluation and a possible correction of 25-50% [2] Valuation Concerns - Coca-Cola's stock is currently priced around $70, trading at 29 times its earnings, resulting in an earnings yield of only 3.4%, which is high compared to Google’s 19 times earnings [2] - The company's average revenue growth of approximately 2% over the last three years does not justify its high valuation multiple [2][6] Sales Growth Factors - Coca-Cola experienced a 6% year-over-year increase in organic sales growth in the last quarter, driven by rising sales volumes, effective pricing strategies, and revenue growth management [3] - Initiatives to enhance cold drink equipment deployment and optimize the brand portfolio towards higher-margin products are contributing to this growth [3] Margin Expansion - The operating margin has improved from 28% in 2022 to 30% in the last twelve months, indicating enhanced operational efficiency and profitability [4] Future Growth Expectations - Organic revenue growth is expected to remain in the mid-single digits, while margin expansion is not anticipated to continue at the same rate, suggesting a need for Coca-Cola's valuation to align more closely with companies experiencing 5-10% revenue growth [5] Comparative Valuation - If Coca-Cola were valued at Block Inc.'s multiple of 15 times earnings, its stock price would be around $40, raising questions about whether Coca-Cola's growth profile justifies a lower multiple [6] Economic Ties - Coca-Cola's performance is closely linked to global economic growth, increasing disposable incomes, and population growth, particularly in emerging markets [7] - A robust economy, characterized by stabilizing inflation and renewed consumer confidence, could enhance discretionary spending and demand for Coca-Cola's products [8] Safe Haven Investment - During volatile market conditions, Coca-Cola is often viewed as a "safe haven" investment, attracting investors seeking stability and predictable earnings, which can lead to increased valuations [9] Risk-Reward Analysis - Comparing Coca-Cola with companies like Google and Block helps investors understand the relative risk-reward dynamics of the investment [10][11] - The Trefis High Quality Portfolio, which includes 30 stocks, has outperformed the S&P 500 over the past four years, indicating a more stable performance with superior returns [12]