Our next guest says President Trump firing Jerome Powell is quote a terrible idea that would only have negative long-term consequences. Loretta Mester is the former president of the Cleveland Fed and a CNBC contributor, someone that knows an awful lot about the inner workings of all of this. We're lucky to have you here.Thank you so much, Miss Mester. I guess just to get started, what was your general take on how today's events played out and what you think should or should not happen. Well, it's just anoth ...

Gary Cohn was National Economic Council Director in the first Trump administration, and now he’s weighing in on U.S. inflation data and the nation’s future monetary policy. If it were up to him, Cohn says he’d try cutting rates–just a little. Ben Gilbert & David Rosenthal are hosts of Acquired, a podcast boasting interviews with guests like Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, Mark Zuckerberg, and Howard Schultz, as well as a million listeners per episode. Ten years into the project, Gilbert and Rosenthal discuss how the ...

I mean speaking of rates, you've been for last year or so at least higher for longer camp and Fed for the better part of the year has been on hold. So that's been right. What do you think happens next. Well, you know, the trajectory here, you know, you're asking what happens next.You're talking about in 2025. You think we'll get a few cuts. I I think there's I think there's a reasonable chance we get a cut or two.Um but not certain. And you know I think the market is absorbing the trade policy but on the ca ...

Monetary Policy & Inflation Outlook - The independence of the Federal Reserve is critical for both the current and future chairs [1] - The market is pricing in a full point (100 basis points) of rate cuts by the Fed this year [1] - Inflation is primarily a fiscal and monetary phenomenon, not driven by tariffs [3] - The industry anticipates soft growth numbers will lead the Fed to ease policy, potentially finding themselves behind the curve in September [6][10] Fiscal Policy & Economic Conditions - Government spending growth has slowed significantly, from a 45% increase in the first six months of fiscal year 2021 to a 5% increase currently [4] - Money supply growth has also slowed, from 27% to 4%, compared to a 50-year average of 6-7% [5] - The industry does not expect a significant inflation surge due to the changes in fiscal and monetary policy [6] Treasury Market & Investment Strategy - The industry suggests underweighting the back end of the Treasury market, maintaining a 70% stocks, 30% bonds allocation [7] - There is pressure on the back end of the curve due to factors such as the JGB market, slowing of QE in Japan, and spending out of Germany [8] - The two-year to five-year part of the Treasury curve may represent a good investment opportunity if weak economic data emerges [9]

Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - President Trump considered nominating a replacement for Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell earlier than the typical transition period [1] - The concept of a "Shadow Fed Chair" is introduced as a way to potentially undermine the current Fed Chair's authority [2] - Trump expressed dissatisfaction with Powell for not lowering interest rates as much as desired [6] - Trump suggested interest rates should be as low or lower than 1%, significantly below the current range of 425% to 450% [9] Potential Risks & Challenges - Creating a "Shadow Fed Chair" may not be effective and could confuse financial markets [9][10] - The "chair in waiting" could face challenges in expressing views that align with both the President and market expectations [10][11] - Disagreements about policy could undermine the credibility of the Fed [13][14] Nomination & Confirmation Process - The President nominates members to the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, who are then confirmed by the Senate [4] - The Senate plays a crucial role in deciding whether a nominee has the right temperament to lead the Fed [19] - The confirmation process could be difficult, given the President's desire for someone who will align with his wishes [20] Potential Candidates - Kevin Warsh, a former Fed Governor, was considered for Fed Chair in 2017 [15][16] - Kevin Hassett, former Director of Trump's National Economic Council, is another potential candidate [16] - Other potential candidates include Scott Bessent and Fed Governor Chris Waller [17]

OM uh director Russ Vote is calling out Fed Chair Jay Pal, writing in an expost that Pal has grossly mismanaged the Fed. uh Russ Folult uh joins us now and and we'll talk about the the more maybe uh wide ranging uh issues in in terms of uh you know monetary policy then then we can get into I said maybe you know if I could print money Russ you heard what I said I' I might make Versailles I mean I might I'd have servants I'd have uh I don't think I could overspend on my facilities but we we probably don't we ...

Monetary Policy Outlook - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve (Fed) to potentially cut rates, influenced by factors such as President Trump's urging and internal committee discussions [1][2] - The Fed committee holds diverse views, with some members favoring no rate cuts this year, while others, including the chair, foresee potential cuts [2] - Some Fed governors suggest current short-term rates are "pretty restrictive," implying room for rate reduction [3] - The Fed is in "wait and see mode" to assess the impact of tariffs on the economy before making a decision on rate cuts [2][4] - A 25 basis points rate cut in July is considered by some as a minor adjustment that could appease those advocating for lower rates [5] Interest Rate Expectations - The market anticipates the initial rate cut may occur in the fall, potentially starting in September [7] - The committee's "dots" indicate that 12 members believe two rate cuts would be appropriate [7] - Standard monetary policy rules suggest that current policy is restrictive [3][8] Fed Communication - Providing useful information on its intentions is valuable for any central bank [9] - The usefulness of the "dots" projections is debated, with some questioning their value [8][9]

Monetary Policy & Bitcoin - Bitcoin 被认为是解决当代年轻人面临的抑郁、债务和疾病等问题的道德必需品 [1] - 该报告暗示了对当前货币政策的质疑，可能认为其导致了上述负面社会现象 [1] Social Impact - 年轻一代面临日益严重的抑郁、债务和疾病问题 [1]

Federal Reserve Leadership & Monetary Policy - The market is closely watching potential candidates to succeed Jerome Powell as Fed chair, including Hasset and Fed Governor Kevin Warsh [1][2][3] - The candidates are generally viewed as having similar thoughts on monetary policy, potentially limiting market impact [3] - The President believes rates are 3 percentage points too high [4] Monetary Policy Stance - The market views current monetary policy as restrictive, considering the balance sheet size relative to the economy's size pre-COVID [5][6] - The Fed funds rate was 100 basis points higher when the Fed previously cut rates [6] - PCE inflation was down 0.5 percentage points and unemployment was up 0.5 percentage points during the prior rate cut [7] Potential Rate Cut Controversy - A prior 50 basis point rate cut was perceived by some as being too close to the election [8][9] - A 25 basis point cut was considered more appropriate by some [8][9] - Candidates need a cogent reason for lowering rates, potentially using the balance sheet as justification [11] - Kevin Warsh has suggested using the balance sheet to push for lower rates [11]

Please lately we're getting some headlines here from the Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic. Steve Leeman has those for us. Morning Steve. Good morning Shar.Yeah, Raphael Bostic saying a time of uncertainty is quote no time for significant shifts in monetary policy. He's the first uh Fed person to talk after the jobs report this morning. He says he still fully supports the wait and see approach to policy.Uncertainty, he says, persists in every area that central bankers care about uh the US economy. And th ...