Labor Market Analysis - The unemployment rate has increased for the fourth consecutive month, reaching 4.6%, indicating a potential weakening labor market [1] - The report suggests that the labor market is decoupling from GDP growth, with solid GDP growth expected despite a weakening labor market [5][6] - The private sector is particularly affected, with significant job losses in government sectors, while health and education are the only areas showing strength [3][5] Economic Drivers - AI-related spending is identified as a major driver of economic activity, but it lacks the same multiplier effect as traditional spending [6] - Low-income consumers are facing more difficulties, raising concerns about the future as AI transitions from a demand issue to a supply issue [7] - Companies like Accenture and Walmart emphasize the labor enhancement potential of AI, although there is a risk of labor displacement [7][8] Future Economic Scenarios - There are two potential scenarios for the economy: a non-inflationary boom driven by AI productivity or stagflation if the bond market tightens [11][12] - The central scenario of solid growth above 2% is considered compelling but only has a 50% probability, with significant risks on either side [10][12] Treasury and Bond Market - The bond market is facing increased supply from both public and private sectors, with a notable deficit of 6% of GDP [20][21] - There is concern that the bond market may not be pricing in risk adequately, which could lead to a tightening of conditions [21] Fed Chair Speculation - Betting odds indicate a shift in favor of Kevin Worsh as a potential next Fed chair, reflecting market sentiment influenced by political statements [22][23] - Worsh is viewed as a more favorable candidate due to his understanding of Fed reforms and balance sheet issues compared to Kevin Hassett [24]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes that having a large balance in a checking account may not be beneficial, as it can lead to missed opportunities for growth and financial security [1][2]. Group 1: Risks of Holding Too Much Cash - A significant warning is that consistently holding more than one to two months' worth of expenses in a checking account can lead to losing value due to inflation and earning little to no interest [3][4]. - It is recommended to cap checking reserves at one to two months' worth of essential expenses, with any excess needing to be invested to avoid stagnation [4]. Group 2: Importance of Compounding - Money in a checking account does not grow, and for long-term goals like retirement or travel, it is crucial to invest that money in higher-yield options [4][5]. - The difference between idle cash and invested money can be substantial, as invested dollars can earn returns that compound over time, while cash in checking accounts loses value due to inflation [5]. Group 3: Misconceptions About Financial Health - Many individuals equate a large checking account balance with financial health, but this can mask a lack of financial progress if they are not contributing to retirement or investment accounts [7].

Here with me now at the Goldman Sachs trading floor in a CNBC exclusive is Goldman's co-head of global markets and banking Ashook Verdon. It's become a little bit of a tradition to do this at the end of the year. >> Yeah, welcome back to the trading floor call.>> Thanks for having us Ashook. So the Hasset view is kind of rhymes with what you what you what you believe will happen in 26 and that is growth can accelerate and we'll we can get back to target. >> Absolutely.uh you know maybe for a little bit diff ...

Here with me now at the Goldman Sachs trading floor in a CNBC exclusive is Goldman's co-head of global markets and banking Ashook Verdon. It's become a little bit of a tradition to do this at the end of the year. >> Yeah, welcome back to the trading floor call.>> Thanks for having us Ashook. So the Hasset view is kind of rhymes with what you what you what you believe will happen in 26 and that is growth can accelerate and we'll we can get back to target. >> Absolutely.uh you know maybe for a little bit diff ...

The Republican party is grappling with policies on tariffs and immigration that are fueling inflation, but its emphasis on deregulation will ultimately help stem price increases, Citadel founder Ken Griffin said https://t.co/y1fpOMAYly ...

The trend has been very clear. When Democrats run on affordability, they have been winning. 2026 is a midterm year.Do the Republicans risk losing the American public. So, you know, it's really it's quite ironic to see how the tables are turned, because just 12 months ago, President Trump and the Republicans swept into office on the issue of inflation. And the Democrats have rebranded the problem of inflation as the issue of affordability.And they are now well-poised to return to control the House. And there ...

Mortgage Rates Outlook - Mortgage rates are expected to decline slightly over the next year, influenced primarily by the 10-year U.S. Treasury market [1][2] - The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was reported at 6.19% as of December 4, down from 6.69% a year ago, but significant drops in rates are not anticipated for 2026 [3][2] - Predictions indicate that mortgage rates could average 6.3% in 2026, easing affordability pressures slightly while home prices are expected to rise by 2.2% [8] Federal Reserve Actions - The Federal Reserve cut short-term interest rates by a quarter percentage point, bringing the target range to 3.5% to 3.75% [6] - The Fed's decision to cut rates was not unanimous, with some members advocating for a more significant cut or no change at all [5] - Economists project that the Fed may implement two to three additional rate cuts in 2026, depending on job market conditions and inflation [16][19] Consumer Impact - The average rate for home equity lines of credit (HELOC) is currently 7.81%, down from 8.55% a year ago, indicating a trend of lower borrowing costs for consumers [4] - Credit card rates have also seen a decline, with the national average for new customers dropping from 20.12% to 19.83% following recent Fed rate cuts [23][24] - A K-shaped economy is emerging, where wealth disparities are increasing, benefiting higher-income households while lower-income households face financial struggles [25][26] Economic Conditions - Job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has slightly increased, contributing to a cautious economic outlook [6][7] - Inflation remains above the Fed's target of 2%, which could limit the extent of future rate cuts [13] - Consumer spending growth has been weak, with a reported increase of only 1.3% annualized in 2025, compared to a typical growth rate closer to 2% [27]

Economic Outlook - U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent forecasts a "bountiful" economy in 2026, with expectations of real affordability relief for families and meaningful progress on prices, wages, and housing [1][2] - Bessent emphasizes that 2025 is a preparatory year, while 2026 is expected to yield significant economic benefits, contingent on the government remaining operational [2] Tax Refunds and Income Growth - Substantial tax refunds for working American households are anticipated in the first quarter, which will lead to increased real incomes and improved job growth [3][6] - Estimated tax refunds of $1,000 to $2,000 are expected to contribute to a productivity boom in 2026, provided political challenges do not hinder progress [6] Inflation and Affordability - Bessent predicts a significant drop in inflation within the first six months of the next year, attributing this to falling rents and lower energy prices [6] - The administration's policies, particularly regarding immigration, are argued to have previously inflated rents, but recent enforcement measures are leading to a decrease in rental costs [6] Economic Growth and Market Performance - The economy is diversifying beyond Big Tech, with positive performance observed in other sectors of the stock market [7] - Bessent asserts that growth does not inherently create inflation; rather, inflation arises from demand exceeding supply, and deregulation policies are enhancing supply across various sectors [8] Future Economic Conditions - The expectation is set for a return to a non-inflationary growth environment where both lower-income households and working Americans benefit, suggesting a favorable year ahead for both Main Street and Wall Street [9]

Employment Data & Economic Outlook - November jobs report indicates employers added 64,000 jobs [1] - The unemployment rate edged up to 46% from 44% [1] - The economy is weaker than desired, based on backward-looking data [3] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve faces a conundrum regarding cutting rates in light of the job numbers [3] - Persistent inflation, partly due to tariffs, complicates the decision to lower interest rates [4] - Lowering interest rates could exacerbate inflation, while increasing them could worsen unemployment [5]

>> PAYROLLS ARE WEEK AND WE THINK THE RISK IS ON THE DOWNSIDE. >> OUR OWN FORECAST HAS THE LABOR MARKET LOOKING RESILIENT. >> THE FED'S MANDATE IS NOT WHAT HEADLINE GDP IS DOING. >> IF THE LABOR MARKET IS WEAK, THE FED IS PRICING MORE THAN JUST CUTTING MORE THAN IS PRICED IN. >> THIS IS BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE WITH JONATHAN FERRO, LISA ABRAMOWICZ AND ANNMARIE HORDERN. LISA: WELCOME TO BLOOMBERG SURVEILLANCE AND IT DOES NOT SOUND RIGHT WITH STOCKS STRUGGLING TO HOLD ONTO GAINS WITH TRADERS FOCUSED ON THE DATA ...