Group 1: Consumer Confidence - Consumer confidence decreased in September, with the Conference Board's index at 94.2, down 3.6 points from August and below the Dow Jones estimate of 96.0, marking the lowest level since April [1] - The "present situation" index also hit its lowest in a year, indicating a less positive assessment of business conditions and a decline in job availability for the ninth consecutive month [2] Group 2: Labor Market Conditions - Job openings in August totaled 7.23 million, a slight increase of 19,000 from July but a decrease of 422,000, or 5.5%, compared to the same period last year [3] - The Job Openings and Labor Turnover report indicated a slower pace in hiring and total separations, with quits falling by 75,000, reflecting decreased worker confidence [4] Group 3: Federal Reserve Outlook - Labor market stability is crucial for the Federal Reserve as it considers interest rate adjustments, with expectations of a half percentage point cut by year-end [5] - Boston Fed President Susan Collins noted risks of labor demand falling short of supply, potentially leading to a significant increase in the unemployment rate [6] Group 4: Labor Market Perceptions - There is a growing divide in labor market perceptions, with the percentage of respondents indicating jobs are "plentiful" dropping to 26.9%, a decline of over 3 percentage points from August, while the "hard to get" measure remained at 19.1% [7] - Respondents expressed increased pessimism about their financial situations, with the largest one-month drop since July 2022 [7]

Government Shutdown Implications - The likelihood of a government shutdown is rising significantly, with probabilities now in the very high numbers [1][4][8] - The last continuing resolution was passed on March 1st, and the current impasse is partly due to the political fallout from that event [2] - If the government shuts down, critical labor market data, including jobs data, may not be released, which could impact market sentiment [3][9] Market Reactions and Economic Impact - Despite the uncertainty, it is suggested that the market and investors should not be overly concerned about the shutdown's impact on the overall economy [3][4] - Historical context indicates that previous shutdowns, such as during the Trump administration, did not lead to catastrophic economic effects [4][6] - A shutdown lasting a few days may not be significant, but if it extends to weeks, it could have more serious implications [7] Labor Market and Economic Indicators - Upcoming labor market data, including the Jolts report, is critical, with expectations of around 7.1 million job openings [14] - Consumer confidence is anticipated to dip slightly from 97.4 to 96 due to the looming shutdown [14] - The Case-Shiller home price index showed a month-over-month decline of 0.1% and a year-over-year increase of 1.8%, indicating mixed signals in the housing market [10][11] Federal Reserve Commentary - Several Federal Reserve speakers are scheduled to discuss interest rates and the economy, which may provide insights into future monetary policy [15] - The upcoming October Fed meeting's occurrence during a potential government shutdown raises questions about its implications [15]

Core Viewpoint - December British pound futures are presenting a selling opportunity due to a confirmed price downtrend after hitting a six-week low [1][2]. Technical Analysis - The December pound futures have established a downtrend, with a critical support level at last week's low of 1.3325. A breach below this level would empower bearish sentiment and create a selling opportunity, targeting a downside price objective of 1.3000 or lower [3]. - Technical resistance is identified at 1.3475, where a protective buy stop should be placed just above [3]. Fundamental Analysis - Bank of England Deputy Governor Dave Ramsden advocates for reducing interest rates due to concerns in the U.K. labor market. He suggests that current interest rates are too restrictive, which could lead to a resurgence of inflationary pressures in the U.K. economy, negatively impacting the pound against the U.S. dollar [2].

Core Insights - DoubleLine Capital is focusing on purchasing emerging market bonds, particularly those denominated in local currencies, as they are seen as a favorable investment opportunity [1][3] - The current investment environment is characterized by rising interest rates, which is a significant shift from the historical trend of falling rates over the past 45 years [2] - Emerging markets have a lower debt-to-GDP ratio compared to the U.S. and are benefiting from a weakening dollar, making local currency bonds attractive due to higher yields and better economic fundamentals [3] Investment Strategy - Gundlach suggests allocating at least 20% to local-currency emerging market bonds due to their higher yields and stronger budget fundamentals [3] - The firm is short on 30-year Treasurys in some portfolios and prefers shorter durations, specifically 3 to 5-year Treasurys [5] Market Predictions - Gundlach anticipates inflation to remain around 3%, exceeding the Federal Reserve's 2% target, especially with potential changes in Fed leadership [6] - There is a concern that the Fed may shift to a more inflationary policy, potentially leading to negative real interest rates [7]

How worried should we be about a potential government shutdown once we blow through the deadline tomorrow at midnight. Democrats in the Senate, they're filibustering the Republican bud budget bill. They want to extend the health insurance subsidies and the Affordable Care Act, reverse some of the president's recent Medicaid cuts.So far, it sounds like that both sides are pretty intransigent. And if you look at the predictions market, they're currently assigning a roughly 75% odds of a shutdown by Wednesday. ...

Tariffs and Industry Impact - President Trump announced a potential 100% tariff on movies made outside the US, marking the first time tariffs would be applied to services rather than goods [2] - The furniture industry faced significant pressure, with William Sonoma being the worst performer on the S&P 500, closing down nearly 5% as investors withdrew from furniture stocks [3] - Other furniture makers like RH and Restoration Hardware also saw declines, while Wayfair managed to remain positive [4] Technology and Market Performance - Technology stocks showed signs of stabilization, with Nvidia making a comeback despite ongoing concerns about valuations and infrastructure needs [5] - Lamb's stock surged after Deutsche Bank upgraded its rating to buy and raised its price target to $150, citing favorable supply and demand dynamics [6] - Apple underperformed among the major tech stocks, with a noted cooling in demand for the iPhone 17 series, particularly in China [7] Economic Indicators and Consumer Confidence - Upcoming data releases include the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) and consumer confidence index, with expectations of a slight decrease in consumer confidence from August [8][9] - The JOLTS report is anticipated to provide insights into the current labor market conditions, particularly regarding hiring and firing trends [8] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Commentary from Federal Reserve officials will be crucial in determining future interest rate decisions, especially in light of persistent inflation above the 2% target [11] - Chicago Fed President Austin Goulby expressed caution regarding preemptive rate cuts, emphasizing the need to monitor inflation trends [11] Nike's Earnings and Market Strategy - Nike's upcoming earnings report is expected to provide insights into its turnaround strategy under CEO Elliot Hill and how the company is navigating current market challenges, including tariffs [13][15] - RBC upgraded Nike's stock, anticipating a revenue boost from the upcoming World Cup, which is expected to drive sales [14][15] - Barclays and Citi have also raised their price targets for Nike ahead of the earnings report, indicating a recovery from earlier lows despite being down about 9% year to date [15][16]

Market Outlook & Economic Policy - The market experienced gains for five consecutive months, defying seasonal expectations, driven by positive policy and macroeconomic factors [1] - Deregulation, particularly in crypto, and tax policy changes, including full expensing of manufacturing structures for three years, are expected to stimulate economic activity [2][3] - The effective corporate tax rate in the US is projected to be roughly 10% for the next three years, among the lowest globally, potentially leading to a productivity-driven economic boom [4][5] - The industry anticipates a shift from a rolling recession to a recovery and then a productivity-driven boom [5] Monetary Policy & Inflation - The fund's performance historically wasn't inversely correlated with interest rates [7] - Interest rates are expected to continue to decrease, and a productivity-driven boom could lead to surprisingly low inflation, potentially below 2% next year [8][9] Investment Strategies & Crypto - A barbell strategy is observed, combining equities to capitalize on lower interest rates and gold as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty [12] - Stablecoins, particularly Tether and Circle, holding 90% of the market, are considered an important trade, providing access to the decentralized finance (DeFi) ecosystem [14][15] - The company has exposure to Bitcoin, Ether, and Solana, believing all three will play a significant role [18] - The company did not invest in Bitcoin debt, but did invest in Ether and Solana due to staking opportunities [19] ETF Dynamics & IPOs - Surges in share creations in the fund A1, ahead of IPOs like Klarna, are theorized as a strategy to gain exposure to IPO shares [23] - The company doesn't have the ability to reject trades from authorized participants, as market makers and authorized participants handle all the flows [27][28]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the stock market, highlighting that Goldman Sachs has raised its outlook for global equities due to strong earnings and a Federal Reserve easing cycle, with a bullish target of 7,000 for the S&P 500 by year-end [1][5][7]. Market Performance and Outlook - The rally in the stock market is attributed to recovering earnings, and it is expected to continue as earnings accelerate, with a projected growth of 8 to 10% into the next year [4][6]. - The target of 7,000 for the S&P 500 is seen as potentially conservative, with expectations that the market could exceed this level before stabilizing [8]. Investor Sentiment and Cash Reserves - There is a significant amount of cash on the sidelines, which could contribute to market performance, especially in the fourth quarter, following a strong first nine months of the year [9]. - Historical data indicates that when the market is up 15 to 20% in the first three quarters, the average return in the fourth quarter is approximately 5.6% [10]. Economic Conditions and Fed Policy - The concept of a "Goldilocks" environment is discussed, where interest rates remain steady, and both earnings and GDP growth are positive, although there are concerns about current valuations compared to historical averages [11][12]. - The Fed's actions regarding interest rates are crucial, as aggressive cuts could lead to inflationary pressures, impacting market stability [13][22]. Future Projections - The market is expected to enter a phase of moderate growth, with returns projected to be in the high single digits to low double digits, aligning with historical averages [16][22]. - The Fed's credibility with the market is emphasized as a key factor for future performance, particularly in light of persistent inflation concerns [22][23].

Market Trends & Regulatory Landscape - Interest rates are being lowered, with expectations of further decreases [1] - The SEC is urged to approve approximately $125 trillion (estimated based on context) of 401k capital for crypto investments [1] - Crypto Spot ETF approvals are underway, facilitated by new generic listing standards [1] - The SEC has requested issuers of LTC, XRP, SOL, ADA, and DOGE ETFs to withdraw their 19b-4 filings [1] - Withdrawals of 19b-4 filings could commence as early as this week [1] Timeline - Q2 2025 is on Wednesday [1]

Today’s CD rates still hover well above the national average. The Federal Reserve reduced its target interest rate three times in 2024 and recently announced its first rate cut of 2025. This has a ripple effect on deposit account rates, which means now could be your last chance to lock in today's high rates with a certificate of deposit (CD). Here’s a look at today’s best CD rates and where you can find the best offers. Best CD rates today As of September 29, 2025, the the highest CD rate is 4.45% APY. T ...