Economic Outlook - Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism about the U.S. economy in 2026, stating that the country is not at risk of entering a recession and that Americans will soon benefit from the Trump administration's economic policies on trade and taxes [1][2] - Bessent highlighted that the GOP's spending package, the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act, is still being implemented, which includes permanent tax cuts from Trump's 2017 tax reform and additional tax breaks for various income sources [2] Healthcare Costs - Bessent indicated that healthcare costs are expected to become more affordable, with further announcements from the Trump administration anticipated soon [3] - However, a congressional deadlock regarding the extension of enhanced subsidies on the Affordable Care Act is likely to increase healthcare costs for millions [3] Economic Challenges - Bessent acknowledged struggles in certain sectors of the economy, particularly in housing and interest-rate-sensitive areas, while asserting that lower energy prices will help reduce inflation [4] - Kevin Hassett, director of the White House National Economic Council, noted potential economic weakness in fourth-quarter data due to a prolonged government shutdown, which was the longest in U.S. history [5] Public Sentiment - A recent NBC News poll revealed that around two-thirds of registered voters believe the Trump administration has not met expectations regarding the economy and cost of living [5] - According to JPMorgan's Cost of Living Survey, high-income respondents rated their economic confidence at an average of 6.2 out of 10, while low-income consumers reported a significantly lower average score of 4.4 [6]

Economic Impact of Tariffs - Trump's tariff policies are central to his economic strategy, with claims of strengthening the U.S. economy and curbing inflation, while the stock market has reportedly hit an "ALL-TIME HIGH for the 48th time in 9 months" [2][3] - A proposed $2,000 "tariff stimulus check" for middle-income Americans, funded by tariff revenues, raises skepticism among economists who argue that tariffs are typically paid by U.S. importers, leading to higher consumer prices [3][4] - Historical data shows that a significant increase in tariffs can negatively impact S&P 500 earnings, with Goldman Sachs estimating a 1-2% reduction in earnings per share for every five-percentage-point increase in tariff rates [4][6] Market Reactions and Volatility - Trump's announcements have led to significant market volatility, with major indices experiencing fluctuations despite achieving record highs, as seen on November 21, 2025, when the S&P 500 was down 2% despite a 0.92% rise in the US500 [5][12] - The VIX, a measure of market volatility, reached the mid-40s in April 2025, indicating extreme investor anxiety following tariff announcements [6][12] - The market's relationship with Trump's economic statements is characterized by unpredictability, with analysts noting that his pronouncements can trigger significant intraday market swings [11] Sector-Specific Impacts - Trump's directive for the Department of Justice to investigate the meatpacking industry over alleged price manipulation caused immediate stock price drops for major companies like JBS and Tyson Foods [8] - The pharmaceutical sector reacted sharply to Trump's price reduction promises for GLP-1 weight loss drugs, with stocks of companies like Novo Nordisk and Eli Lilly experiencing declines following his announcements [9][10] - Subsequent agreements to set drug prices at around $350 per month for Medicare and Medicaid recipients indicate a significant shift in the market landscape, although initial reactions were negative [10] Overall Market Sentiment - As of late November 2025, major indices showed a mix of gains and losses, reflecting the ongoing volatility and uncertainty in the market, with the S&P 500 down 2% despite a 1% increase on the same day [12] - The market continues to grapple with the implications of Trump's policies, oscillating between moments of optimism and underlying concerns about potential policy shifts [12]

Truflation is reporting inflation at 2.37% right now.Much more accurate measurement than the government's CPI metric. https://t.co/6BGz2Llm1T ...

INCREDIBLE PROGRESS WE UNDERSTAND THERE'S A LOT MORE WORK TO DO AND THE ONLY THING I WOULD ASK OF THE AMERICAN PEOPLE IS A LITTLE BIT OF PATIENCE. >> SCOTT BESSENT, WELCOME BACK TO "MEET THE PRESS". >> THANK YOU FOR HAVING ME.>> I WANT TO START RIGHT THERE ON THE DISCUSSION OF AFFORDABILITY. YOU JUST HEARD VICE PRESIDENT J. D.VANCE ASK PEOPLE TO HAVE, QUOTE, A LITTLE BIT OF PATIENCE WITH THE ADMINISTRATION. LET ME ASK YOU, MR. SECRETARY, HOW LONG DO AMERICANS NEED TO BE PATIENT. HOW LONG DO THEY HAVE TO WAI ...

Group 1 - The U.S. housing market is currently facing challenges, particularly regarding mortgage rates and their impact on recovery prospects [1] - It is unlikely that mortgage rates will return to 3% in the near future, as current market conditions suggest higher long-term rates [2][5] - The 10-year Treasury yield would need to decrease to approximately 1.5% for 30-year mortgages to return to 3%, which is not expected soon [3] Group 2 - The market is pricing in long-term inflation at 2.27%, indicating that achieving lower mortgage rates is challenging [4][5] - Current low-rate mortgages are creating a "locked-in" effect, where homeowners are hesitant to sell due to the prospect of higher rates [8] - Housing affordability remains a significant issue, particularly for first-time buyers, complicating the overall market dynamics [9]

Still, Edwards insists that the current parallels to the late 1990s Nasdaq bubble are clear: extremely rich valuations in tech, with some U.S. companies trading at over 30x forward earnings, justified by compelling growth narratives. Just as the TMT (technology, media, telecom) sector attracted vast, sometimes wasted capital investment in the 1990s, Edwards argued that today’s enthusiasm echoes that earlier era. There are two key differences that could lead to a much worse outcome this time, though.As he hi ...

You don’t have to beat the market.You just have to let it beat inflation—for decades. ...

Economic Data Releases - The delayed September retail sales report will be released just before Black Friday, indicating consumer spending trends leading into the holiday season [2][7] - Other economic data to be released includes weekly jobless claims, pending home sales, durable-goods orders, and the Producer Price Index for September, which will provide insights into inflation [2][7] Earnings Reports - Key companies reporting earnings this week include John Deere, Alibaba, Applied Digital, Dell Technologies, and others, with significant attention on their performance amid rising costs and market conditions [4][5][6] - Workday is expected to report quarterly earnings for the first time since Elliott Investment Management took a stake in the company, indicating potential shifts in company strategy or performance [5] Market Activity - Stock markets will close early on Friday at 1 p.m. ET, and bond markets will close at 2 p.m. ET due to the Thanksgiving holiday, impacting trading volumes and market dynamics [2][11] - The upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision on December 10 may be influenced by the delayed economic data, complicating the outlook for monetary policy [7]

Solana community has introduced proposal SIMD-0411, which would double the inflation decrement rate from –15% to –30%. This change would accelerate SOL inflation from the current 4.18% down to the long-term 1.5% target by early 2029 instead of 2032 — roughly 3.1 years instead of 6.2. The adjustment would cut projected issuance by about 22.3 million SOL (≈$2.9B) over six years, reducing staking yield pressure and increasing holder retention. The proposal is simple, predictable, and now under governance discu ...

Japan is open to intervening in the currency market “to mitigate the side effects of a weak yen,” a government panel member said, reflecting Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s concerns about inflation https://t.co/BDOgD4hom4 ...