Core Insights - Social Security is a reliable income source that can provide increased benefits during inflation and guarantees lifetime payments [1] Strategies to Maximize Benefits - Delaying the claim of Social Security benefits until age 70 can significantly increase monthly payments, as benefits rise each month until that age [2] - Continuing to work and earn a higher income after claiming benefits can also enhance Social Security checks, as benefits are calculated based on the highest 35 earning years [4][6] - The Social Security Administration automatically recalculates benefits based on any higher earnings reported after benefits have been claimed, potentially replacing lower-earning years in the calculation [7]

Core Insights - Two-thirds of Americans have less in their savings accounts compared to last year, indicating a significant trend in personal finance management [1] Group 1: Reasons for Shrinking Savings - Inflation is a major factor affecting Americans' budgets, impacting individuals regardless of their income levels [4] - The resumption of federal student loan payments, which had been paused during the pandemic, is forcing many to allocate funds that were previously saved [5] - The use of "Buy Now, Pay Later" schemes can lead to increased financial obligations if not managed properly, contributing to the decline in savings [6] Group 2: Consumer Behavior and Strategies - Despite 32% of Americans making weekly trade-offs and 25% making daily trade-offs to save more, savings account balances continue to decrease [6] - Recommendations for improving savings include seeking personalized financial advice, utilizing digital budgeting tools, and automating savings to prioritize setting aside funds before other expenses [7]

Federal Reserve - The Federal Reserve is seen as both a potential cause of inflation and a means to control it, with concerns about maintaining high interest rates for too long [2][3] - A significant increase in money supply, approximately 40% from 2020 to 2023, has led to a corresponding rise in prices [3][4] - Predictions indicate that the Federal Reserve may need to cut interest rates by 100 basis points, with expectations of four to five cuts in the coming year [5][6] Economic Impact - The Federal Reserve's balance sheet expanded dramatically from under $1 trillion in 2008 to approximately $9 trillion, and is now expected to stabilize around $6 trillion [8][9] - The ongoing adjustments in the mortgage bond portfolio may not significantly impact the broader economy, but liquidity support is anticipated to benefit both the economy and stock market [10] China’s Economic Situation - China's economy is facing severe challenges, with a banking system described as insolvent and a real estate market down 40% to 50% [12] - Despite these issues, China has managed to achieve a trillion in exports, although this is viewed as the only positive aspect of its economy [11][12] - The reliance on coal for electricity production (64%) is highlighted as a key factor in China's competitive advantage, despite the negative implications for sustainability [13][14]

Market Outlook - Morgan Stanley initially targeted 6,500 for the S&P 500 this year, slightly below the median of 6,600 [1] - The call for 2026 is a continuation of this year's outlook, expecting to end up a little above target [2] - The firm maintained its targets, anticipating a tough first half followed by a strong second half due to administration policies [3] - The market is expected to see more positive effects from fiscal policy in 2026, supported by the Federal Reserve's "run-in hot strategy" [4] Economic Strategy - The "run hot" strategy, aimed at growing out of debt and deficit issues, involves higher growth and inflation, requiring Fed tolerance [6] - Inflation is expected to accelerate again, benefiting earnings growth if the Fed remains supportive, similar to the situation in 2021 [7] - The economy is transitioning from a rolling recession that bottomed in April to an accelerating phase with both real growth and inflation [10] Sector Preferences - Favored sectors include consumer discretionary, financials, small caps, some healthcare, and software over semiconductors [8] - Consumer discretionary is expected to perform well due to pricing power in an inflationary environment [8] Consumer Impact - Consumers can tolerate higher inflation with rising wages, which is part of the policy plan, including restricting immigration to boost real wage growth [11] - A three-year recession in consumer goods with low volume growth is now changing, driven by policy changes and pent-up demand [11][12]

market with us now to break it all down. The author himself, Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley CIO and chief US equity strategist. He had a 6,500 initial target on the S&P 500 this year, just a little bit below the median of 6,600.So, we have done a little bit better than that, but I think this this idea, Mike, that you're always some great bear is incorrect. You have a pretty bullish target on this year. We're going to surp than below it.What do you see then for 2026. >> Hey Brian, how are you. I think uh you kn ...

Fed governor Stephen Miran and New York Fed President John Williams say they are not worried about inflation. ...

Core Insights - The holiday shopping season is impacted by high tariffs on imported goods, leading to increased prices and cautious consumer spending [2][4][5] - Retailers are adjusting their product offerings to focus on more profitable items and are experiencing a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [3][6] Group 1: Retail Impact - The Ah Louis Store has transformed into a holiday destination but faces challenges in converting browsers into buyers due to economic factors [1][2] - Retailers are noticing a trend of customers opting for less expensive gift options, indicating a shift towards cautious spending [3][5] - The Gallup index reflecting consumer sentiment has dropped to a 17-month low, with holiday gift budgets decreasing by $229 from October to November [5] Group 2: Tariff Effects on Specific Categories - Toys and games are particularly affected by tariffs, with price increases ranging from 5% to 20% for 80% of inventory, impacting consumer purchasing decisions [7][9] - Consumer electronics, primarily sourced from China, have seen price adjustments due to tariffs, with Best Buy adapting its inventory to attract lower-income shoppers [10][11] - Jewelry prices are rising due to the increasing cost of gold and varying tariff rates, with potential future increases anticipated if tariffs remain in place [13][15] Group 3: Holiday Decorations and Strategic Shopping - Holiday decorations, largely imported from overseas, have also seen price increases due to tariffs, with specific items like red berry stems rising from $8.95 to $10.95 [16][17] - Consumers are advised to consider secondhand stores and discount retailers to avoid tariff-related price hikes, as these outlets often sell leftover stock [18]

picked up to 0.71% YoY in November from 0.25% in October, driven by persistent food price deflation and weak core inflation. Most economists said headline inflation appears to have bottomed out in October on account of lower food prices and one-time GST cut adjustment and expect it to inch up but will be below RBI’s 4% medium-term target. RBI has cut the repo rate by 125 bps since the easing cycle began in February stating that it is to support growth as inflation remained benign.WHY A PAUSE NOW? , on the ...

Core Insights - 2026 is expected to be financially challenging for many older Americans, prompting consideration of part-time work to improve financial situations [1] Social Security Benefits - In 2026, Social Security benefits will receive a 2.8% cost-of-living adjustment (COLA), increasing the average retirement benefit from $2,015 to $2,071, which may not significantly alleviate financial struggles for those reliant on these benefits [2][3] Medicare Costs - Medicare costs are set to rise in 2026, with the standard monthly Part B premium increasing from $185 to $202.90, which will reduce the impact of the COLA for those paying premiums from their Social Security checks [4] - The annual deductible for Medicare Part B will increase to $283 from $257 in 2025, while the inpatient deductible for Part A will rise to $1,736 from $1,676 [5] - Daily coinsurance rates for hospital stays and skilled nursing facilities will also see increases, with rates going from $419 to $434 and from $209.50 to $217, respectively [5][6] Financial Concerns - Factors such as a modest Social Security COLA, rising Medicare costs, and ongoing inflation contribute to financial worries for older Americans, making part-time work a viable option to enhance income [7] - Those without a Medigap plan may face significant healthcare costs and should consider returning to work to bolster their financial security [8]

There are a wide range of predictions for what the US economy could look like next year. A recent article in Barron’s projected domestic GDP growth around 2% and rising inflation that peaks around 3.3% next summer. The “The One Big Beautiful Bill” that wasI have been involved in the financial world for over 20 years with experience as an advisor, teacher, and writer. I am a full believer in the free-market system and that financial markets are efficient with most stocks reflecting their real current value. ...