Market Expectations & Fed Policy - The market anticipates a hawkish rate cut in September, with interest rate-sensitive sectors like retail, home builders, and banks rallying on this expectation [2] - The market initially overreacted to dovish comments, overlooking broader market dynamics; a weaker dollar supports international markets, commodities, and multinationals [2] - The market may be prematurely pricing in an easing cycle beyond a single rate cut, given persistent goods inflation [10] - Prior to the speech, there was a 74% chance of a rate cut, which increased to 87%; this shift, though not drastic, significantly moved the market [10] - In May, the odds of a rate cut were zero, with the "higher for longer" narrative gaining traction [11] Inflation & Employment - Inflation remains a key concern for the Federal Reserve [1] - The Fed is balancing its mandates of stable pricing (inflation) and full employment, with recent jobs numbers raising concerns [4][5][8] - PPI data indicates ongoing goods inflation, though services inflation is balancing it out [10] Rate Cut & Neutral Rate - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates, with the key question being whether it will be 25 or 50 basis points [5] - Determining the neutral rate (estimated around 3% to 35%) is crucial for gauging how aggressively the Fed will cut rates to avoid inflationary or deflationary pressures [6] - The current Fed funds rate is approximately 43%, positioning it in the middle of the range [6]

>> I'M VONNIE QUINN. BLOOMBERG "REAL YIELD" STARTS NOW. COMING UP, FED CHAIR POWELL OPENS THE DOOR TO A RATE CUT IN SEPTEMBER, SENDING STOCKS SURGING.ALSO BONDS. THEY ARE ON THEIR BEST WAYS -- BEST DAY SINCE MAY. 2-YEAR YIELDS FALLING ON THAT COVERAGE TONE FROM JACKSON HOLE.AND WE ARE GOING TO GO LIVE TO JACKSON HOLE IN A MOMENT FOR A LIVE REPORT. SO, WE BEGIN WITH THE BIG ISSUE. FED CHAIR JEROME POWELL SIGNALING A SHIFT IN POLICY.>> THE STABILITY OF THE UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ALLOWS US TO PROCEED CAREFULLY AS W ...

Market Trend - Bitcoin experienced a 769% increase from last September to December when the Fed cut rates [1] - The Fed has indicated the possibility of rate cuts in September [1] Policy - Powell suggests that the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy [1]

Powell Says Conditions ‘May Warrant’ Interest Rate Cut In Jackson Hole Speech. Get Live Updates Here: https://t.co/fEPj8N5Kia https://t.co/RlUZRGwmuz ...

A big day for the markets as we get ready for Fed Chair J Pal's address in Jackson Hole. Steve Leeman is there and he joins us right now along with former Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker and CNBC contributor and former Fed Vice Chair Roger Ferguson. Steve, uh, a lot of anticipation ahead of this. Yes, an awful lot. And I think I have a great panel to talk about ahead of time, but before I do, I want to just update viewers on where the Fed funds futures market is going into this speech. And there's ...

Group 1 - The iShares MSCI Global Gold Miners ETF (RING) has reached a 52-week high and is up 83.01% from its 52-week low of $27.70 per share, indicating strong momentum in the fund [1] - The MSCI ACWI Select Gold Miners Investable Market Index tracks companies primarily generating revenue from gold mining in both developed and emerging markets, with RING charging 39 basis points in annual fees [1] - The surge in gold prices is attributed to the potential for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, which would likely lead to a depreciation of the U.S. dollar and increased demand for gold [2] Group 2 - Gold is considered a safe-haven investment, and current geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties are further supporting its price [3] - Gold mining stocks have recently experienced significant gains as they often act as leveraged plays on the underlying metal [3] - RING is expected to maintain its strong performance in the near term, with a positive weighted alpha of 65.57, suggesting potential for further rally [4]

Market Overview - Major indexes closed mostly in the red, with the Dow down 157 points, S&P 500 down 24 points, and Nasdaq down 90 points, while the small-cap Russell 2000 gained 4 points [1] Economic Indicators - S&P flash Manufacturing PMI for August reached 53.3, significantly above the anticipated 49.5 and July's 49.8, marking a more than 3-year high [2] - August Services PMI was reported at 55.4, the second consecutive month above 55 this year [2] Company Earnings Reports - **Zoom Communications (ZM)**: Shares rose 6% after Q2 earnings beat expectations by 10% at $1.53 per share, with revenues of $1.217 billion, a 4.7% year-over-year growth, and non-GAAP operating margins at 41.3% [3] - **Intuit (INTU)**: Shares fell 5% despite beating fiscal Q4 earnings expectations by 10 cents at $2.75 per share, with revenues of $3.8 billion, a 20% year-over-year increase, attributed to lackluster guidance for the current quarter [4] - **Ross Stores (ROST)**: Shares increased by 2.3% after Q2 earnings of $1.56 per share exceeded consensus by 4 cents, with revenues of $5.5 billion, a 5% year-over-year growth, and expected comps of 2-3% going forward [5] Upcoming Events - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's address at the Economic Symposium in Jackson Hole, WY, is anticipated to provide insights on interest rate decisions for the September meeting [6] - Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is due out a week from Friday, with the last report showing year-over-year PCE at 2.6% and core PCE at 2.8% [7]

💥BREAKING:🇺🇸 FED OFFICIAL SAYS: WITH DATA NOW, WOULDN'T SEE CASE FOR SEPTEMBER CUT.THIS IS BEARISH. https://t.co/jn8k7l1nJE ...

特朗普持续施压美联储之际，关税政策正加剧其内部分歧。 美东时间8月20日周三，美联储公布的7月会议纪要显示，多数决策者支持暂不降息，仅沃勒和鲍曼两人 反对。 多数美联储官员强调，通胀风险远高于对劳动力市场的担忧。 据CME"美联储观察"，目前美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为81.9%。 10月维持利率不变的概率为8%，累计降息25个基点的概率为46.4%，累计降息50个基点的概率为 45.5%。 内部分歧加剧 7月美联储继续按兵不动，将利率维持在4.25%至4.5%区间不变。 会议纪要显示，多数名决策者认为，通胀比就业风险高，特朗普关税影响需要一些时间才会全面显现。 官员们围绕关税对通胀的影响，以及当前政策立场的"限制性"程度，展开了激烈辩论。 与会者强调，通胀长期超过2%的水平，加之关税对通胀的潜在持续影响，可能加剧长期通胀预期失控 的风险。 值得关注的是，美联储副主席鲍曼与理事沃勒则以就业市场恶化，主张立即降息25个基点。 他们的不同意见，也标志着自1993年以来首次有两位理事与美联储主席意见相左。 目前，沃勒和鲍曼已经出现在鲍威尔2026年5月第二任期结束后继任的财政部候选名单上。 一是根据鲍威尔的新闻 ...

Core Insights - Gold has seen significant demand this year due to U.S. policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, leading to substantial investments in gold ETFs, with global inflows reaching $43.6 billion as of August 15, 2025, potentially surpassing the record of $49.5 billion set in 2020 [1][11] Group 1: Investment Trends - North America contributed approximately $24 billion in gold ETF inflows, marking its second-strongest annual performance, with SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) attracting $9.6 billion, followed by iShares Gold Trust (IAU) with $6.1 billion and SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) with $4.8 billion [2] - China led international inflows with $7.8 billion, followed by the UK ($2.9 billion), Switzerland ($2.5 billion), Japan and France ($1.2 billion each), and India and Germany ($1.1 billion each) [3] Group 2: Market Drivers - U.S. policy uncertainty, particularly regarding tariffs, has driven investors towards gold as a defensive investment, with gold traditionally serving as a wealth preservation tool during financial and political instability [4] - A weaker U.S. dollar, down 9.4% this year, and increased central bank purchases have also supported gold prices, with 95% of central banks expecting to increase their gold reserves in the next 12 months [5] - The likelihood of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has risen, with markets predicting over 90% probability for cuts in September, making gold more attractive compared to fixed-income investments [6] Group 3: ETF Details - SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) has an AUM of $103.5 billion, with an average daily volume of 9.3 million shares and annual fees of 40 bps [7] - iShares Gold Trust (IAU) has an AUM of $48.6 billion, with average daily volumes of 6 million shares and annual fees of 25 bps [9] - SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (GLDM) has an AUM of $16.8 billion, with an average daily volume of 3 million shares and low annual fees of 10 bps [10] Group 4: Future Outlook - Given the ongoing tariff uncertainties and potential Fed rate cuts, investor interest in gold ETFs is expected to remain robust in the coming months [11]