Economic Outlook - Higher income consumers show resilience in spending [1] - Labor market indicates weaker labor demand [1] - Aggregate spending is declining [3] - Aggregate employment is declining [3] Monetary Policy Implications - The Fed may need to undergird the economy and consider an additional rate cut in December [3] - Rising unemployment rate and declining employment could prompt the Fed to cut rates [4] - The Fed is trying to maintain balance amid rising prices and input cost pressures [6] Inflation and Pricing - Firms can only pass through about 20% of higher input costs [3] - Prices are rising moderately, with widespread input cost pressures among manufacturers and retailers [6] - Input cost increases are related to tariff induced increases [6]

The price of Bitcoin jumped above $90,000 per coin again Wednesday after a rough two weeks that led many crypto investors and analysts to point to the start of a bear market. Bitcoin hit as high as nearly $90,334 Wednesday afternoon before dropping. It was most recently priced at $90,035, according to CoinGecko, after jumping by more than 3% over a 24-hour period. The biggest digital coin had struggled and plunged with other assets in November, at one point late last week dipping to nearly $81,000 per coi ...

Possible December rate cut? Recent Fed signals are keeping that door open.Market rally comes after two Fed officials signal support for interest rate cut at the central bank's next rate-setting meetings, slated for Dec. 9 and 10.See how sectors react. Browse equities 👉 https://t.co/JaoeXEiC0hDisclaimer: Stocks are offered by Foris Capital US LLC, member FINRA/SIPC. Foris Capital is separate from https://t.co/hcDm4vdblb affiliates and does not provide crypto asset services. ...

Economic Overview - Wall Street's main indexes rose for a fourth consecutive session, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 416 points (0.9%) to 47,528, and both the Nasdaq and S&P 500 gaining 0.9% [1] - Mixed economic data was released, showing jobless claims fell to 216,000, below expectations of 225,000, while new orders for capital goods surged in September [2] Federal Reserve Insights - The economy is not slipping into recession, but it is weak enough to allow for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, as there remains a high number of unemployed individuals [3] - Traders are pricing in an 84.9% chance of a 25-basis-point rate cut next month, nearly double the odds from the previous week, influenced by softer consumer demand signals and dovish remarks from Fed officials [4] Company Performance - Dell's stock rose by 2.3% after its quarterly forecasts surpassed expectations, driven by strong demand for servers in AI data centers, contributing to the S&P 500 and Nasdaq reaching two-week highs [5] - HP's stock fell by 2.3% following the announcement of disappointing profit forecasts and job cut plans [8] Retail Sector Outlook - The upcoming holiday shopping period is crucial for big-box retailers, with expectations of holiday sales surpassing $1 trillion for the first time, despite mixed results from retailers like Walmart and Target [7][8] - The trading volumes are expected to thin out during the holiday period, which could lead to sharper price swings [7]

Economic Indicators - The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) canceled the October consumer price report and will release the November report on December 18, while the October employment report will be included in the November report scheduled for December 16 [1] - The US November MNI Chicago PMI fell by 7.5 points to 36.3, marking the steepest contraction in 17 months and significantly below expectations of 43.6 [1][6] - US September capital goods new orders, excluding defense and aircraft, rose by 0.9% month-over-month, surpassing expectations of 0.3% [2] - Weekly initial unemployment claims unexpectedly fell by 6,000 to a 7-month low of 216,000, indicating a stronger labor market than the anticipated increase to 225,000 [2] Stock Market Performance - The S&P 500 Index rose by 0.49%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index increased by 0.51%, and the Nasdaq 100 Index was up by 0.54% [7] - Strength in semiconductor stocks contributed to market gains, with notable increases in companies like ASML Holding NV and Marvell Technology [12] - Optimism regarding a potential Federal Reserve rate cut is boosting stock prices, with the probability of a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting rising to 81% from 30% [5][7] Corporate Earnings - Q3 earnings for S&P 500 companies showed a 14.6% increase, more than doubling the expected 7.2% year-over-year growth, with 83% of companies exceeding forecasts [8] - Urban Outfitters reported Q3 net sales of $1.53 billion, exceeding the consensus of $1.49 billion, leading to a stock increase of over 12% [13] - Dell Technologies raised its 2026 revenue forecast to $112.2 billion, up from a previous estimate of $105 billion to $109 billion, which was stronger than the consensus of $107.94 billion [14] Company-Specific Developments - Boeing secured a $2.47 billion contract from the US Air Force for additional KC-46A Pegasus tankers, contributing to a stock increase of over 2% [15] - Nutanix's stock fell by more than 17% after reporting Q1 revenue of $670.6 million, which was below the consensus of $676.6 million [17] - Oracle's stock rose by more than 4% as analysts noted that the benefits of OpenAI have not yet been priced into the stock [14]

Market Overview - U.S. stock futures rose on Wednesday following Tuesday's gains, with major benchmark indices showing positive movement [1] - The three-day winning streak occurs in a holiday-shortened week, with markets closed on Thursday and open until 1:00 p.m. ET on Friday [1] - Traders are pricing in an 84.9% likelihood of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December, influenced by dovish central bank guidance [2] Stock Performance - Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL) increased by 4.94% after reporting mixed Q3 results and raising its full-year revenue outlook to $111.2 billion to $112.2 billion, up from $105 billion to $109 billion [7] - HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ) fell by 5.67% despite better-than-expected Q4 earnings, due to announced layoffs and weak forward guidance [7] - Autodesk Inc. (NASDAQ:ADSK) rose by 7% after beating Q3 earnings and revenue expectations, guiding for full-year revenue of $7.15 billion to $7.17 billion and adjusted earnings of $10.18 to $10.25 per share [7] - Zscaler Inc. (NASDAQ:ZS) dropped 7.15% despite beating analyst estimates and raising its fiscal 2026 outlook [14] - Uber Technologies Inc. (NYSE:UBER) was up 0.73% after launching Level 4 fully driverless Robotaxi operations in Abu Dhabi [14] Sector Performance - Communication services, health care, and consumer discretionary sectors recorded the largest gains on Tuesday, contributing to the positive performance of the S&P 500 [9] - The Nasdaq Composite rose by 0.67%, S&P 500 by 0.91%, Dow Jones by 1.43%, and Russell 2000 by 2.14% [10] Economic Indicators - Initial jobless claims data for the week ending Nov. 22 and September's durable-goods orders data will be released on Wednesday [15]

Core Insights - Retail sales in the U.S. slowed in September, indicating a potential waning of consumer momentum as the economy heads into the fourth quarter [2][7] - The slowdown in retail sales could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rates, with some economists suggesting it may lead to a rate cut in December [3][4] Economic Implications - Cooling consumer spending may signal a broader economic slowdown, which could affect growth prospects and the Fed's next interest rate decision [3][4] - The weaker retail sales report may indicate a drag on the economy, potentially leading to weaker third-quarter GDP results [8] Consumer Behavior - Certain retail categories, such as healthcare, furniture, and dining, saw sales increases, while categories like sporting goods, clothing, electronics, and online retail experienced declines compared to August [5] - Financial pressures on middle- and lower-income households are leading consumers to become more value-based shoppers [6] Federal Reserve Considerations - Federal Reserve officials are divided on whether to cut rates, with some citing high inflation as a reason to maintain current rates, while others point to a softening job market as justification for cuts [4] - The data released in September, which was delayed due to a government shutdown, provided clearer insights into the economy for Fed officials [2][7]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - In the short - term, with the ongoing debate about the Fed's December rate cut, precious metal prices are likely to maintain high - level volatility. It is recommended to focus on the economic data released by the US. The strategy is to buy on dips or sell out - of - the - money put options. - In the long - term, as the Fed remains in the rate - cut cycle, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, the credit risk of the US dollar will increase. With the continued gold purchases by global central banks, the long - term center of gold prices is likely to continue to rise. Long - term investors are advised to allocate by buying on dips [4]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Tracking - **Precious Metal Prices**: On November 24, 2025, compared with November 21, London Gold Spot was at $4054.27/ounce (up 0.6%), London Silver Spot was at $49.88/ounce (up 1.0%), COMEX Gold was at $4050.80/ounce (up 0.6%), COMEX Silver was at $49.52/ounce (up 1.2%), AU2512 was at 927.36 yuan/gram (up 0.4%), AG2512 was at 11810 yuan/kg (up 1.0%), AU (T + D) was at 926.00 yuan/gram (up 0.4%), and AG (T + D) was at 11803 yuan/kg (up 1.0%) [3]. - **Price Spreads/Ratios**: From November 21 to November 24, 2025, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price decreased by 34.3%, the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased by 36.4%, the spread of gold TD - London decreased by 28.2%, the spread of silver TD - London increased by 0.1%, the SHFE gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the COMEX gold - silver ratio decreased by 0.6%, the spread of AU2602 - 2512 increased by 0.7%, and the spread of AG2602 - 2512 decreased by 87.5% [3]. Position Data - As of November 21, 2025, compared with November 20, the gold ETF - SPDR was 1040.57 tons (up 0.11%), the silver ETF - SLV was 15257.9153 tons (up 0.07%), the non - commercial long positions of COMEX gold decreased by 5.65%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 4.47%, the non - commercial net long positions decreased by 8.28%, the non - commercial long positions of COMEX silver decreased by 3.42%, the non - commercial short positions increased by 5.55%, and the non - commercial net long positions decreased by 7.08% [3]. Inventory Data - On November 24, 2025, compared with November 21, the SHFE gold inventory was 90426.00 kg (unchanged), the SHFE silver inventory was 532299.00 kg (up 2.51%). From November 21 to November 20, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 0.47% to 36764181 troy ounces, and the COMEX silver inventory decreased by 0.26% to 460702562 troy ounces [3]. Other Market Data - From November 21 to November 24, 2025, the US dollar index decreased by 0.04% to 100.15, the 10 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 0.98% to 3.51%, the 2 - year US Treasury yield decreased by 11.32% to 4.06%, the US dollar/Chinese yuan central parity rate decreased by 0.07% to 7.08, the VIX decreased by 1.13% to 23.43, the S&P 500 increased by 0.98% to 6602.99, and NYMEX crude oil decreased by 1.33% to 57.98 [4]. Market Analysis - **Market Review**: On November 24, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.52% to 930.32 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 1.14% to 11808 yuan/kg [4]. - **Influencing Factors**: Fed officials soothed the market, saying that further rate cuts were expected in the future, and the expectation of a December rate cut rebounded, supporting precious metal prices. However, the Russian central bank's sale of physical gold, the US' 28 - point plan, and the joint statement of the US and Ukraine may ease the geopolitical tensions between Russia and Ukraine, suppressing precious metal prices. For silver, in addition to its absolute price following the gold price trend, the tight domestic spot market may limit the downside space of silver prices, and the futures term structure may be maintained after turning into a B - structure [4].

Core Viewpoint - Cryptocurrency investors are increasingly betting on a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December, with significant shifts in prediction market odds indicating strong expectations for a 25 basis point reduction [1][2][4]. Group 1: Prediction Market Insights - The odds of a 25 basis point cut rose to 81% on Polymarket, up from 67% the previous day and 44% a week prior [2]. - The likelihood of rates remaining unchanged decreased from 30% to 18% within 24 hours [2]. - Over $159 million has been wagered on the outcome, with the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting scheduled for December 10 [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The increase in odds for a rate cut followed dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, which positively impacted stock and cryptocurrency markets, including a rise in Bitcoin prices [5]. - Goldman Sachs' chief economist suggested that the delayed September jobs report may have solidified expectations for a 25 basis point cut at the upcoming FOMC meeting [5]. - Notable investor Bill Gross also forecasted a rate cut next month, aligning with the overall market sentiment [5].

Market Overview - The bull market has reached its three-year anniversary, historically a positive milestone, with past occurrences suggesting an average continuation of eight more years of growth [2][3] - In previous instances, the shortest duration of continued growth after reaching this milestone was five years, indicating potential for at least two more years of upward movement [2] Investment Risks - Key risks include Federal Reserve actions regarding interest rates, US-China trade policy, and current stretched valuations in the market [5][6] - Concerns about an AI bubble bursting are considered misplaced, with a focus on the potential for significant returns from the AI revolution [4][5] AI Infrastructure Investment - Significant investment in AI infrastructure is projected, with estimates of $3 to $4 trillion by the end of the decade, up from approximately $700 billion currently [8][9] - The focus for investors should be on infrastructure-related companies, such as those providing data center solutions and power supply, rather than solely on AI algorithms and software [10][13] Stock Performance and Selection - Recent stock performance shows divergence among major tech companies, indicating that investors are becoming selective in their choices [11] - The AI revolution is expected to be a long-term journey with more losers than winners, emphasizing the importance of careful investment strategies [12] Future Investment Themes - Investment themes for 2025-2026 should focus on sectors experiencing significant spending, particularly in AI infrastructure and power solutions [18][19] - Companies like Vertiv, which provide cooling solutions for data centers, and Nextera Energy, which operates nuclear power plants, are highlighted as potential investment opportunities [18][19] Defense Sector Outlook - The aerospace and defense sector is anticipated to see trillions of dollars in spending globally, with unmanned autonomous aircraft being a key area of interest [20]