Tonight, the country's central bank making a long- aaited pivot. With downside risks to employment having increased, the balance of risks has shifted. Fed chair Jerome Powell announcing a quarter point rate cut, the first in nine months, and putting the focus squarely on the softening US labor market.Powell seemingly less concerned than before about the risk of a return to runaway inflation, even though price increases have accelerated over the past four months. Powell acknowledging challenges for the overa ...

Mortgage rates are at the lowest levels we've seen in a year. Well, the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate does not directly affect mortgage rates. They are connected.So, how will a cutting cycle affect the housing market. Lawrence Yu, National Association Realtors chief economist is joining me now. Good to see you, Lawrence.We also have the backdrop of uh housing starts which showed some weakness, the lowest since May last month. So, that reflecting one part of the housing market as well. But as the ...

Group 1 - Home builder stocks experienced a decline after an initial rise following the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) announcement, correlating with an increase in the 10-year Treasury yield [1][2] - The iShares U.S. Home Construction exchange-traded fund fell by 0.9% as the 10-year Treasury yield reached its highest level since September 9 [2] - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell indicated that while the Fed does not set mortgage rates, changes in the policy rate tend to influence mortgage rates, which are linked to the 10-year Treasury yield based on future economic expectations [2]

Economic Overview - The housing market is cooling down due to high interest rates, which lead to elevated mortgage rates [1] - Housing Starts for August were reported at 1.307 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, marking a decrease from 1.429 million in July, the lowest since May [2] - Single-family homebuilding decreased by 7% month over month and 12% year over year, while multi-family units fell by 11% month over month but increased by 15% year over year [3] Mortgage Rates and Homebuilder Sentiment - As of mid-last month, 30-year fixed mortgage rates were around 6.5%, currently down to approximately 6.13%, which may lead to a rebound in housing starts [4] - Building Permits also declined to 1.312 million, indicating a softening in future housing starts [5] - Homebuilder sentiment dropped by 2 points, with affordability being a significant concern; Toll Brothers remains the only major homebuilder with a strong outlook [6] Federal Reserve Expectations - The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates for the first time in 2025, with a potential 25 basis-point cut anticipated [7][8] - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's press conference will be crucial for insights on future rate cuts and the Fed's strategy moving forward [9] - There may be discussions regarding the Fed's asset runoff, particularly concerning mortgage-based securities, to support the housing market [10]

Many hopeful home buyers and refinancers are hoping for the Fed to cut rates. But even if the Fed cuts rates, mortgage rates may not drop below 6%. For a few years now, the housing market has been in a bit of a stalemate.We've seen a lack of homes for sale, and homeowners who bought homes with low rate mortgages are reluctant to move and take on a higher rate. Mortgage rates often drop in anticipation of a Fed rate cut, which we've seen recently. Mortgage rates hit an 11th month low, offering a glimmer of h ...

US homebuilder sentiment stayed near multi-year lows, highlighting a frozen housing market despite falling mortgage rates https://t.co/N6ShYUKPTk ...

Trade & Tariffs - The US bond market is performing well due to revenue from tariffs, expected to bring in hundreds of billions of dollars this year to pay down the debt [26] - Chinese exports to the US are down approximately 14%, while exports to Europe are up approximately 6.9% [51] - The US trade deficit with China is expected to narrow by at least 30% this year and potentially more in 2026 [52] Federal Reserve & Monetary Policy - A 25 basis point rate cut is priced in [14] - The market is pricing in 75 basis points in rate cuts between now and the end of the year [18] - The Fed has an employment and growth mandate, with the dollar being a byproduct [8] - The President believes the Fed has been behind the curve [13][15] TikTok Deal & National Security - A framework for a deal regarding TikTok has been reached, with President Trump and party chair Xi expected to agree on a final deal [29][32] - The deal includes safeguards for US national security and the interests of citizens, especially children [37] - The Chinese government's approval is needed for the deal between ByteDance and new investors [37] Deregulation & Economic Growth - The US market is responding positively to President Trump's agenda, particularly non-inflationary growth and deregulation [23] - The administration aims to cut through the regulatory morass surrounding American businesses [23] - Deregulation is seen as crucial for the US to become an AI superpower and energy dominant [24]

So, what do you make of these moves to the downside as we go into this Fed meeting. Generally, mortgage rates, they seem to be tied to the 10-year. The Fed has a bigger influence on the two-year.Do you see this. Do you see this move as sustainable, this downside move in rates. I think it I think it's not dramatic as we know, and I think what we're seeing has already been baked in.I don't think we're going to see rates go much lower than this. And I think, you know, the sentiment so far uh in the housing mar ...

Mortgage Rates Overview - Mortgage rates are trending lower ahead of an anticipated Federal Reserve rate cut, with the current 30-year mortgage rate at 6.16%, down 12 basis points since Friday [1] - The 15-year fixed interest rate has decreased by three basis points to 5.46% [1] Current Mortgage Rates - Current national average mortgage rates include: - 30-year fixed: 6.16% - 20-year fixed: 5.68% - 15-year fixed: 5.46% - 5/1 ARM: 6.65% - 7/1 ARM: 6.58% - 30-year VA: 5.78% - 15-year VA: 5.29% - 5/1 VA: 5.94% [4] Refinance Rates - Refinance rates are generally higher than purchase rates, with the current national average for 30-year fixed refinance at 6.20% [15] Impact of Federal Reserve Decisions - The trajectory of future mortgage rates is closely tied to the Federal Reserve's decisions, with a 96% chance predicted for a rate decrease at the upcoming meeting [13] - Mortgage rates have been falling since early September, but their reaction to a potential Fed rate cut remains uncertain [14] Long-term Outlook - Economists do not expect significant drops in mortgage rates before the end of 2025, with any potential decreases in 2026 likely to be modest [16][17]

Market Performance - The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 273 points, a decrease of 06% [2] - NASDAQ closed up 05%, showing an opposite trend to the Dow [2] - The S&P 500 narrowly missed a record, down five basis points [2] - The S&P 500 is up 16% for the week, NASDAQ is up over 2%, and the Dow is up almost 1% [3] - Communication services led sector performance, up 085%, followed by utilities and consumer discretionary, each up about 05% [4] - Tesla was up 736%, while Amazon was down about 08% [5] - China's market has shown significant gains this week, with Alibaba up 14%, Baidu up over 12%, and JDcom up 7% [7] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Market expects a 25 basis point rate cut from the Fed [8][9] - The Fed may focus more on employment, potentially deemphasizing inflation [9][10] - The market has priced in about 150 basis points of easing, but the Fed might not be as aggressive [12] - The unemployment rate is at 43%, and inflation is around 27% to 29% [13] IPO Market - The week has been the busiest since 2021 for companies raising over 100 million in their IPOs [26] - Seven big deals this week raised about 44 billion, making 2025 the best year for IPO volume since 2021 [27] - Expect three to five large traditional IPO issuances per week through the end of November or early December [29] Housing Market - The 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit 635% [31] - Mortgage rates have fallen due to weaker economic data and expectations of Fed rate cuts [33] - Home price growth is slower than inflation [35] - Lower mortgage rates are helping with affordability, but broader economic factors also influence buyer decisions [34][37]