US Deficit and Economic Policy - Bridgewater founder Ray Dalio discussed the US deficit as a "ticking time bomb" [2] - The US government's policy is a bet on growth, aiming to stimulate growth and lower interest rates to reduce debt service costs [2][3] - Tariff revenue is estimated to be $300-400 billion annually, while spending is approximately $7 trillion and revenue is $5 trillion [2] - Lowering interest rates is intended to stimulate growth and asset prices, while also lowering the cost of debt service [3] Economic Disparity and Technological Impact - There's a significant economic divide, with the top 1-10% (tech and AI-sensitive) performing well, while the bottom 60% (with low reading levels) are becoming less productive [4][5] - The economy and markets cannot be viewed as a whole due to the growing wealth gap, which is also seen in the UK and France [5][6] - Wealth creation is shifting from income to unicorn creation, impacting income taxes and leading to potential relocation issues [7] Political Conflict and Uncertainty - The democratic system is facing challenges with political conflict between the left and right, impacting compromise and cooperation [10] - Political conflict creates uncertainties about taxes, living locations, and investment decisions, contributing to the appeal of gold [11][12]

Prediction markets see a better-than-even chance the Supreme Court will rule against Trump's tariffs https://t.co/ZfbrXQSyat ...

US-China Relations & Global Economy - De-escalation between the US and China is viewed as beneficial for global confidence and growth [1][2] - Tariffs have had a neutral impact on the bank's business, with increased financial market activity offsetting deferred investments [3][5] - Trade rerouting presents a significant opportunity for the bank, particularly in Europe, the Middle East, Asia, and Africa [6] - Trade is likened to water, finding a way to flow, creating opportunities for the bank [5][7] Regional Performance & Investment - Saudi Arabia is experiencing an investment boom, driving growth for the bank [8][9] - Egypt is on a path of recovery, contributing to the bank's positive outlook in North Africa and the GCC [10] - The bank has invested heavily in its wealth management presence in Dubai to serve the region [11] Credit Environment & Risk - The bank sees no signs of stress in its portfolio, despite some credit fears in the market [14] - Private credit is considered to be managed by professional investors, with potential for losses in a downturn, but not a systemic risk [15][16] - The bank remains positive for the rest of the year and into next year, citing robust credit environment and increasing trade [17][18] Digital Assets & Cryptocurrency - The bank distinguishes between cryptocurrencies (speculative instruments) and digital assets like stablecoins (lubricant for the digital economy) [20][21] - The digitization of money is considered a profound evolution, with all money eventually becoming digital [23] - The bank plays a critical role in bridging the old and new economies in digital assets, operating a leading institutional-grade cryptocurrency custodian marketplace [24][25] - Regulatory divergence poses a challenge in the digital asset space [25] - The bank has a cryptocurrency trading license but faces capital charge limitations on overnight positions [26]

Their domestic farm lobbies will squeeze both Trump and Modi over ethanol, @andymukherjee writes, making a deal on tariffs much harder to reach (via @opinion) https://t.co/uxbYJGi6kx ...

Trade War & Tariffs Impact - The US-China trade war, initiated by Trump's tariffs on China, led to China banning American soybean imports [1] - Soybean farmer John Boyd Jr feels betrayed by President Trump, citing deals undermining American farmers, including Argentina selling soybeans to China [1] - Tariffs are causing financial distress for American farmers, with rising bankruptcy rates, farm suicides, and foreclosures [1] - Farmers are not receiving promised financial relief from tariffs, with no one seeing a dime of the 3 billion USD said to be going out last week [4] - The 10 billion USD Trump says is going to save farmers is insufficient, described as a band-aid when major surgery is needed [4] - Reagan's ad against tariffs resurfaced, prompting Trump to impose more tariffs on Canada [7] - Reagan stated that high tariffs inevitably lead to retaliation by foreign countries and the triggering of fierce trade wars [9] Political & Economic Implications - 90% of farmers voted for Donald Trump, implying China is trying to hurt Trump's constituency [1] - Democrats need to pay attention to rural areas and advocate for farmers to win back their votes [1] - Democrats have to make a play in these red states for farmers for the first time in a very very long time [2] - The Ford government views the anti-tariff ad as mission accomplished, aiming to generate resistance from Americans against Trump's tariffs [13][14] - Canada argues that tariffs on Canada are attacks on the American people [15] Soybean Market & Farmer Distress - Grain elevators are full, preventing farmers from selling soybeans, and some farmers have had to stop harvesting [1] - One farmer, with 42 years of experience, has never had grain elevators refuse soybeans due to lack of movement [1] - When the first president had his first term, I was selling soybeans for 1680% a bushel and and uh you know, I could pay a few bills and college tuition and and take care of my family [3] - After Trump announced tariffs to China, the price plummeted to 7 USD a bushel [3]

From @WSJopinion: Trump can boast about tariffs all he wants, but he shouldn’t get away with taking Reagan’s trade beliefs in vain https://t.co/IlIJvVwrds ...

What is the probability that the US Supreme Court will strike down President Donald Trump’s broad tariffs? (via @opinion) https://t.co/7fbBXnjabr ...

Nigel Farage says Donald Trump is a role model for government as he's "restoring faith in the democratic system"The Reform UK leader tells Mishal Husain the US president is sticking to his campaign pledge to use tariffs as a weaponSubscribe to the Mishal Husain show wherever you get your podcasts https://t.co/RXkPRfimaf ...

Today, a new escalation from President Trump announcing a fresh tariff hike on Canada. And it comes after an international spat over Ontario Premier Doug Ford's use of a 1987 Ronald Reagan radio address on tariffs and trade. The Reagan Presidential Foundation says the ad misrepresented Reagan's remarks and is reviewing its legal options on the matter.But back with us, we have Don and Susan and Jenna. So, Don, the president accused Doug Ford of using this ad to undermine the president's case at the Supreme C ...

Canada lied. I mean, what they did was terrible. They made up a fake statement by President Reagan.Reagan was a big supporter of tariffs when needed and we need tariffs for national security and they totally turned it around because they're getting hurt by tariffs and we're gaining by tariffs. So, I'm very disappointed in Canada. They lied.I mean, it was a it was a fraud what they did. >> What could What could they do to to get it back on track. >> I don't know.I mean, I'm satisfied with the deal we have. W ...