All right, the Fed's two-day policy meeting kicks off today. Senior economics reporter Steve Leeman joins us right now. He's got the CNBC latest Fed survey. Steve, what's it show? Well, Becky, despite and good morning. Despite improvement in the economic outlook, respondents to the Fed survey continue to forecast weaker growth and higher inflation than they did at the beginning of the year and still elevated tariff uncertainty. 100% say the Fed will keep rates unchanged at this meeting. Uh the recession pro ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a bullish outlook on aluminium and copper, recommending long-term buying opportunities, while suggesting a bearish trend for gold prices in the coming years [18][33][26]. Core Insights - The macroeconomic outlook is challenging, with high US interest rates constraining growth, but potential stimulatory measures from the US government could improve sentiment and growth in the medium term [15][49]. - Gold prices are expected to consolidate around $3,100-$3,500/oz in the near term, but a decline to approximately $2,500-$2,700/oz is anticipated by the second half of 2026 due to decreasing investment demand [18][26]. - Aluminium is projected to have a long-term upside of 20-40%, driven by demand from AI, datacentres, and decarbonization efforts, with limited supply growth expected [18][33][37]. Summary by Sections Executive Summary, Price Forecasts, and Conviction Ideas - Gold's investment demand is at an all-time high, with spending at ~0.5% of global GDP, but is expected to decline as growth sentiment improves [23][24]. - EUAs are forecasted to potentially reach €95/t by year-end, indicating a nearly 30% upside from current prices [18]. Global Macroeconomic Outlook - The US economy is facing high interest rates, which have constrained growth, but upcoming fiscal measures could stimulate economic activity [15][49]. - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the Iran/Israel conflict, poses risks to oil prices but is not expected to significantly impact the base case scenario [55]. Precious Metals and PGMs - Gold prices are projected to fall by 20-25% by late 2025 and into 2026 as investment demand wanes [26][29]. - The report suggests that gold producers should hedge against potential price declines below $3,600-$3,700/oz [26]. Energy - The report anticipates a 25% Section 232 tariff on copper, which could lead to a premium for Comex copper over LME prices [18][41]. - Oil prices are expected to stabilize around $60-65/bbl by the second half of 2025, despite geopolitical tensions [55]. Industrial and Battery Metals - Aluminium is highlighted as a key growth area, with demand expected to outpace supply, leading to potential deficits [33][37]. - Copper is also expected to see significant demand growth, although it may experience short-term weakness due to tariff impacts [18][41]. Agriculture - The report does not provide specific insights on agriculture commodities in this section. Bulks - The report does not provide specific insights on bulks in this section. Conclusion - Overall, the report presents a mixed outlook for various commodities, with bullish sentiments for aluminium and copper, while forecasting a decline in gold prices as global growth sentiment improves [18][26][33].

[Music] Hello and welcome to Market Domination. I'm Julie Hyman. That's Josh Lipton. Live from our New York City headquarters, we are giving you the ultimate investing playbook to help tune out the noise and make the right moves for your money. And here's Headline Blitz, getting you up to speed 1 hour before the closing bell rings on Wall Street. First, I think what we're going to see at the meeting is we got these updated projections and we expect the Fed to go from two cuts this year to one and just ackno ...

13 June 2025 | 7:27PM BST Global Rates Trader Inflation Offers Relief, Oil Offers Risks Inflation relief for global bond markets was short-lived as geopolitical tensions saw oil prices move sharply higher into the weekend. Even with some improvement in the underlying growth versus inflation trade-off and signs of duration risk appetite finding better footing, the macro impediments to a sharp move lower in US yields remain largely in place. Heading into the June FOMC decision, we continue to think any sustai ...

Immigration Crackdown Impact - US industries like crop production, food processing, and construction are significantly impacted by immigration crackdown, with undocumented immigrants comprising 15% to 20% or more of the workforce [1] - Initial weeks saw a slight lull in construction, but no major problems have been observed recently on construction sites [3] - Labor shortages are significant, especially for skilled trades, leading to increased labor costs [11] Regional Differences - Southeast region experiences less impact compared to Texas and California, which have a higher percentage of Hispanic construction workers [5][6][7] - Nationally, over 60% of roofers and over 50% of painters are Hispanic [6] Employer Responsibility - Home builders primarily check licenses, workman's compensation, and insurance certificates of subcontractors, but not the individual workers of those subcontractors [9] - Responsibility of ensuring legal status falls on the subcontractors [9] Housing Market Dynamics - Supply chain constraints have eased, but labor remains a significant constraint [10][11] - Tariffs on lumber from the Pacific Northwest and Canada negatively affect the US and home building industries by increasing costs [12][13] - Rent increases are being kept reasonable at around 2% to 3% despite rising costs [14] - Renting is now cheaper than buying a home in all 50 MSAs in the US due to high interest rates [15] - Properties are nearly 100% full, indicating strong demand [16]

[Music] The May consumer price index data showed a modest increase in inflation with CPI rising 0.1% month overmonth below the expected 0.2% with year-over-year headline inflation measured 2.4%. This reading has shifted some of the sentiment regarding interest rates after last week's stronger than expected labor data. The CME Fed Watch tool has increased the probability of a September rate cut from 6040 to 7030 after the release of the CPI data.The May CPI data suggests a cooling but stable inflation enviro ...

Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market is experiencing uncertainty due to government borrowing, trade wars, and tax cuts [2] - Long bonds, particularly those maturing in 30 years or more, are at the center of concerns [4] - Volatility in the bond market has increased, with yields on long bonds spiking above 5%, nearing the highest since 2007 [6] - Investor demand for long bonds has disappeared, resembling the volatility of meme stocks or crypto [13] Fiscal Policy and Debt - The US is projected to incur another $22 trillion deficit over the next 10 years [3] - Concerns about fiscal spending are driving long-term interest rates up, requiring higher yields to compensate for risk [14] - Government fiscal deficit problems are a ticking time bomb, leading to higher, longer-term yields [22][23] Global Implications - A global movement of rates higher has been observed [18] - Volatility in long-term bonds poses a problem for governments, as investors demand higher yields [20] - Higher yields will affect housing affordability, auto loans, student loans, and credit card rates [21] - The selloff in longer term bonds shows investors that major governments have a huge fiscal deficit problem [22] Long Bond Specifics - Long bonds were popular when investors sought decent yields due to near-zero or negative interest rates in Europe and Japan [8] - Austria Century Bonds, maturing in 2120, have seen their price fall about 75% from their peak in 2021 [12] - Rising long-end yields have increased by some 50 basis points, signaling potential financial stress [7]

Well, investors shifting their focus back on the Federal Reserve ahead of the central bank's policy meeting next week. President Trump once again calling for Fed Chair Pal to cut rates for more on the path ahead for the Fed and interest rates. Let's get now to Loretta Mester, University of Pennsylvania adjunct professor and former Cleveland Federal Reserve President.Uh Loretta, always good to see you. So, let's start Loretta with that inflation report we got today. PPI tame Loretta benign just like CPI yest ...

Market Volatility & Investment Strategy - The market has shown resilience with a V-shaped recovery, and investors should embrace volatility as it favors long-term value buyers [1] - Despite major market averages being in the black for the year, many individual stocks, especially in the Russell 2000, are still down significantly, presenting value opportunities [4] - Stock picking is expected to outperform buying indexes, offering better sleep-at-night valuations and generous dividend yields [11] Undervalued Sectors & Stocks - The energy sector, particularly Sevitas Resources, is attractive due to being hit hard, offering a big dividend yield and low PE ratio while remaining profitable [5][6] - Pharmaceutical companies like Merc are viewed as high quality, trading at a PE around 11 with a 4% dividend yield, lower than its historical valuation [6] - Whirlpool, the appliance maker, offers a yield over 7% with a PE in the 9-10 range, anticipating support from lower interest rates later in the year [8] - Target, the discount retailer, has a low valuation relative to its history and a dividend yield pushing 5% [8][9] - UPS, the package shipping company, aligns with the theme of low valuations and generous dividend yields [9] Economic Outlook & Fed Policy - Good news rate cuts are anticipated throughout the year, although immediate cuts are unlikely due to tariff uncertainties and high inflation expectations [12][13] - Historically, stocks have performed well regardless of Fed tightening or easing, rising or falling interest rates, or high or low inflation [14] - Value stocks have historically lost only a couple percent on average during recessions, with spectacular returns of 30-40% coming out of recessions [15][16] Portfolio Valuation - The portfolio's forward earnings trade at 14 times, compared to the S&P 500's 23 times forward earnings [10] - The portfolio's overall dividend yield is 250 basis points (25%) versus 130 basis points (13%) for the S&P 500 [10]

Inflation & Interest Rates - PPI 显示通胀目前受到控制 [1] - 生产者价格指数（PPI）低于预期，总体和核心指数均上涨 01% [2] - 市场更有信心预计今年将有两次降息，9 月和 12 月降息的可能性约为 75% [5] - 总统表示，如果降低利率 1 个百分点，每年将节省约 3000 亿美元 [6][7] - 欧洲已经降息 10 次，而美国尚未降息 [8] Tariff Impact - 关税的影响可能被出口商、批发商和零售商的利润吸收，只有一小部分转嫁给消费者 [4] - 关税可能被其他商品因经济疲软或其他因素（如导致机票价格下降的因素）而导致的价格下降所抵消 [4] - Evercore ISI 认为，虽然预计关税最终会导致更高的通胀，但持续疲软的通胀数据可能表明关税传递弱于预期，从而略微降低通胀的上行风险 [3] Fed Policy - 市场普遍认为，美联储将等待几次会议，以确保关税问题得到妥善解决后再降息 [6] - 如果美联储因不确定关税的影响而不降息，那么取消关税或美联储降息将是更好的选择，从财政角度来看 [8] - 市场已对降息进行定价，但如果美联储在市场认为合适之前降息，可能会导致长期利率走高 [10] Market Analysis - 2 年期和 10 年期国债收益率之间的息差相对陡峭，表明长期市场并不欢迎降息 [10] - 10 年期国债收益率似乎在 430-450 之间波动 [11][12]