Market Intervention - Citi sold Argentine pesos to the Federal Reserve [1] - This action is part of US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's effort to support the Argentine currency and Javier Milei's administration [1]

Let's bring in former Federal Reserve uh vice chairman and PIMCO e global economic adviser Richard Clara. Rich, um I wonder in the absence of uh of the official government data, what your uh take is on where we are in the economy with that softening labor market yet the rest of the capex driven growth hanging in there and how the Fed's current stance uh relates to it. >> Well, you are right.We don't get official data. There's a lot of alternative data, high frequency uh uh data. Uh and I think it it will sh ...

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he would present President Trump with a list of candidates to serve as the next chair of the Federal Reserve in December https://t.co/CQhGKB8AGh ...

Back on track here, a new book about Black Tuesday and the fallout on Wall Street and beyond. Uh, it hits the shelves today. 1929, Inside the Greatest Crash in Wall Street history and how it shattered a nation is now available.The author, CNBC Squawkbox co-host, New York Times financial columnist, Dealbook founder, subject of a 60 Minutes piece this Sunday, Andrew Ross. I mean, it's royalty here sitting at the the table and queen. This is the first time you've ever been on this show.I I was going to say I f ...

According to WSJ, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell stated that the Fed’s balance sheet reduction (QT) could end in the coming months, citing recent increases in various overnight funding rates that prompted a reassessment of QT’s trajectory. Powell also warned that if Congress eliminates the Interest on Reserves (IOR) mechanism, the Fed could lose effective control over short-term interest rates, posing a threat to market stability. https://t.co/7f4g1fubVn ...

Monetary Policy - Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted the central bank could be approaching the end of a more than three-year campaign to shrink a portfolio of Treasury securities [1] - The portfolio of Treasury securities was acquired to provide stimulus after the 2020 pandemic [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant selloff on Friday due to tariff commentary, impacting the S&P 500 and NASDAQ, but showed signs of recovery over the weekend as optimism returned [2][3] - Key technical levels were breached, with the S&P 500 breaking its 20-day moving average and E-Mini S&P futures hitting the 50-day moving average [2] Government Shutdown Impact - The ongoing government shutdown is in its 13th day, with the market currently discounting its effects, although concerns about labor market impacts and federal worker payments are rising [8][9] - The CPI report is expected to be released on October 24th, which is crucial for social security adjustments, but there is uncertainty regarding the jobs data and its implications for Federal Reserve policy [12][14] Oil Market Dynamics - Oil prices dipped below $60 per barrel for the first time since May, influenced by US-China tensions and geopolitical issues, indicating potential economic slowing [13][14] - Despite rising gasoline demand, concerns persist regarding China's reduced oil imports and OPEC's potential quota increases, which could further pressure prices [15][16] - A bounce back in oil prices is anticipated, but the current volume and price action suggest a cautious outlook, with potential supply shocks if favorable monetary policies are enacted [18][19]

Political Commentary - Dave Smith hopes Rep Thomas Massie will challenge JD Vance in 2028 [1] - The aim is to compel candidates to declare their stance on wars, the Federal Reserve, and the national debt [1]

We've got some uh news on one of the potential Treasury candidates. Uh Aean Jarvis got the latest developments. Aean, >> hey there, Melissa.I've just been texting with former Federal Reserve Governor Larry Lindseay. And Larry Lindseay confirms to me over text that he has withdrawn his name to be Federal Reserve Chairman. He was one of the candidates being interviewed by Treasury Secretary Scott Best.And he says he is now no longer a candidate for that position. and he says, "I have a full I have a very full ...

Government Shutdown Impact on Data & Fed Policy - The government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process due to the lack of hard data, including government jobs data and inflation data [1] - The Fed faces a dilemma: whether to rely on existing labor market data with alternative datasets or pause and wait for the release of delayed data [3] - Data delays have ripple effects, potentially impacting the quality of CPI data for October, November, and December [4] - The shutdown leads to murkier data, with a higher percentage of CPI goods being estimated by staff [4] Economic Impact - The shutdown is estimated to drag quarterly GDP by approximately 10 basis points per week [6] - Federal workers are losing approximately $400 million per day in compensation, impacting consumer spending [6] Market Reaction - Markets are likely to react negatively if the Fed pauses due to the government shutdown, as rate cuts have already been priced in [9] - Alternative data sets do not fully compensate for the lack of government data, particularly in gauging the magnitude of economic changes [10][11] - The range of estimates for the September payroll report varies widely, from as high as 60,000 to as low as negative 30,000 [11] Investment Strategy - The government shutdown has not caused dramatic shifts in investment strategies, as underlying earnings remain strong [14] - Q3 earnings growth estimates have ticked up from 8% to 88%, indicating underlying strength in the markets [16]